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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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BombsAway1288

BombsAway1288

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, ariof said:

It's very interesting how MassPort manages this vs PANYNJ for very big storms. In JFK/EWR/LGA they seem to just let flights keep landing when possible, which gums up the whole airport and snow clearing infrastructure and causes massive delays for pax who do get in and out, missed connections, etc, and then it call cascades for days. Maybe they operate at 40% the day of the storm, but then they're at 60% the next day, and 80% the three days after. Which doesn't make sense.

MassPort cancels everything and gets all the plans out of the airport. I remember watching the March storm last year (and January, too, IIRC). Airlines manage it differently. IIRC, DL flew their evening schedule and then deadheaded all the planes out late (maybe even took some pax, but they were non-standard, high-four-digit-numbered flights). UA just canceled everything in after about 6. Not sure what AA/B6/whoever else did. But in any case, it means that the ramps are entirely clear and it's probably a lot easier to clear the airfield when it is devoid of anything moving than when you have to plow snow around active stands, ramps, taxiways and runways.

Will be interesting to see what they do Sunday, as with the latest models Sunday AM will be pretty snowy.

I have a picture from the flight board that day lit up in red except for 2 flights to Iceland. I tried to upload it here but it’s too big. PM if you’re interested in seeing it as you seem like you have a aviation hobby like myself. 

Still don’t know what they’re going to do Sunday with the ice/sleet threat at Logan. I also used to deice planes at EWR and any talk of freezing rain or sleet would be worse than heavy snow (freezing rain cannot be deicer properly like if it was snow so if a lot of ZR is in the forecast, they’ll cancel most flights like if it was a 2’ blizzard).

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Man the size and scale of the snow removal program going on between my house and the ski resort is impressive.  VTRANS is straight pushing the snowbanks into the woods and trucking it out from intersections.  

They are obviously preparing for RGEM/ECM and not the NAM.  Or with huge holiday weekend for ski towns they aren't f*cking around.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, dryslot said:

It had a good run a couple years back but it has slipped on a banana peel since.

Yeah I still think it has its uses...esp once closer in. It can really shine on low level thermals. It did very well in the Dec 23 ice storm last year inside of 24h showing the ice and cold tuck lasting longer than any of the other guidance including the 3km NAM. But use at own risk outside 30 hours on complex synoptic storms.

The differences in guidance right now sound larger than they actually are though....I mean, even the 12z reggie is giving BOS warning crtieria snowfall despite being more amped up than any other model. But on the margins where ice vs sleet vs snow becomes a tedious balance, small changes in the models look quite large.

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drstuess

drstuess

Posted
Posted
Man the size and scale of the snow removal program going on between my house and the ski resort is impressive.  VTRANS is straight pushing the snowbanks into the woods and trucking it out from intersections.  
They are obviously preparing for RGEM/ECM and not the NAM.  Or with huge holiday weekend for ski towns they aren't f*cking around.  
Are they usually pretty good at clearing 89 and 100? Hoping to drive up Sunday am from Lebanon area?

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

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Sugarloaf1989

Sugarloaf1989

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Man the size and scale of the snow removal program going on between my house and the ski resort is impressive.  VTRANS is straight pushing the snowbanks into the woods and trucking it out from intersections.  

They are obviously preparing for RGEM/ECM and not the NAM.  Or with huge holiday weekend for ski towns they aren't f*cking around.  

NHDOT doing this yesterday along 1-93 around Cannon and Route 302.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

James has a better chance of getting 2 feet of snow from this storm.

The maps on TT are limited, but the 12z ICON ptype algorithm is showing rain to the pike at 12z Sunday with surface temps below 20F down almost to the coast. Obviously it shows snow or "not snow" but it's clear that there is going to be a decent delta between the surface and the mid-levels, and probably a lot of people will see some of everything.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z RGEM doubling down....going even more amped than the 06z run. Has the sfc low NW of NYC at 12z Sunday.

Tossed.

It may just be a pattern that the RGEM can't handle... 

or, the opposite - hell hath no fury like that being the case... 

Anyway, every model seems to have its peccadillo where it seems to need to be almost right on top of the event initialization to actually see it...  I'll tell you, having that position is really tantamount to flying in the face of baser BL physical limitation/resistance.  If it pulls it off... what a fascinating study it would be, to be the first time in history -

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
Just now, JC-CT said:

The maps on TT are limited, but the 12z ICON ptype algorithm is showing rain to the pike at 12z Sunday with surface temps below 20F down almost to the coast. Obviously it shows snow or "not snow" but it's clear that there is going to be a decent delta between the surface and the mid-levels, and probably a lot of people will see some of everything.

https://weather.us/model-charts/german/massachusetts/temperature-850hpa/20190120-1200z.html

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, JC-CT said:

The maps on TT are limited, but the 12z ICON ptype algorithm is showing rain to the pike at 12z Sunday with surface temps below 20F down almost to the coast. Obviously it shows snow or "not snow" but it's clear that there is going to be a decent delta between the surface and the mid-levels, and probably a lot of people will see some of everything.

They will be reaching into there mixed bag for there alcohol.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The maps on TT are limited, but the 12z ICON ptype algorithm is showing rain to the pike at 12z Sunday with surface temps below 20F down almost to the coast. Obviously it shows snow or "not snow" but it's clear that there is going to be a decent delta between the surface and the mid-levels, and probably a lot of people will see some of everything.

Storm is very tilted in the atmosphere...you have a sfc low prob tracking outside of the Cape while the 700 low is tracking up powederfreak's fanny as an open wave.

I wouldn't be shocked if even the pike region sees brief glaze interrupting the scalping....the question is how long snow and sleet holds on though...esp further south where icing a bigger threat. My gut has been that the snow/sleet will put up a pretty good fight for a while which will chew up a chunk of QPF that would have been needed for really bad icing....but there's still a ways to go, and even if that happens, just south of the snow/sleet battle could have a narrow area of bigger icing where they couldn't hold off the deeper warm layer as well. It should be a very fun nowcast storm regardless....a ton of stuff is happening in it.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The maps on TT are limited, but the 12z ICON ptype algorithm is showing rain to the pike at 12z Sunday with surface temps below 20F down almost to the coast. Obviously it shows snow or "not snow" but it's clear that there is going to be a decent delta between the surface and the mid-levels, and probably a lot of people will see some of everything.

Yeah... I mentioned that the use of that ICON illustration has the color-coding limitation the other day ...

One cannot rely upon the illustration alone with 'Tidbits rendering - you gotta use some Meteorological insight for that transiaion region between snow and rain. 

A goodly portion of that QPF mass, south of the snow and N of the warm boundary, is a smear of IP and ZR in this situation. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Storm is very tilted in the atmosphere...you have a sfc low prob tracking outside of the Cape while the 700 low is tracking up powederfreak's fanny as an open wave.

I wouldn't be shocked if even the pike region sees brief glaze interrupting the scalping....the question is how long snow and sleet holds on though...esp further south where icing a bigger threat. My gut has been that the snow/sleet will put up a pretty good fight for a while which will chew up a chunk of QPF that would have been needed for really bad icing....but there's still a ways to go, and even if that happens, just south of the snow/sleet battle could have a narrow area of bigger icing where they couldn't hold off the deeper warm layer as well. It should be a very fun nowcast storm regardless....a ton of stuff is happening in it.

Yeah, but with the wind factor though esp on Monday morning, seems like it wouldn't take much of a glaze to cause downed limbs.

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Snugharbor

Snugharbor

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Some of that might have been differing attitudes by school admin folks, and less litigation threat.  From when our older child entered kindergarten in 1977, thru 1985 when we moved south, he lost 1.5 days total to weather - in Fort Kent, where we had a 130"/year average snowfall.

Things were different then -- agreed -- but it was definitely not a snowy period down here at all. Lots of storms like this one that brought rain inland with a rain/snow/mix line that for me set up north of Providence and south of the "Foster/Glocester" line where I lived. Which I can tell you, because there were a few times I stayed home (I was about 20 mins north of Providence), when school was locally canceled and conditions were worse in my town, whereas in Providence there was often nothing or not enough to cancel it (and my mom refused to drive in). Happened all the time.

The pattern changed literally during my first year away at college...they had more snow days in the winter of 93-94 than we had in the prior 7 years combined!

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