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cyclone77

Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

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5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I would like to donate a pint of blood to have the ukmet verify.

I'd do more than that lol.  That is all-timer potential around here with it still ongoing beyond 144.  

 

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I haven't seen much talk of ratios on here yet, and perhaps it's still too early to discuss one of the finer details, but given the overall setup and the strong artic high that slides in after, this system seems to have a pretty good shot of some higher than 10:1 ratios, especially with northern and western extent. Using the GFS(not because I think it is correct, but because it is easy to access and the players on the field are more or less the same across all models). 850s of -8*C to -14*C could yield ratios possibly approaching 15:1 for the northern 2/3rds of the primary area of snow. Furthermore, the DGZ is fairly large and has almost no wind throughout per the GFS's solution. This seems kinda unusual to me, but what do I know. The lack of any significant speed max below 850mb makes me question the wind gust potential of this system as well. If we were looking for the B-word, I'd personally like to see at least 40kts at 850mb, not 10kts. Either way, this is a different animal from our last few storms where we struggled to reach 10:1.

Sounding is from SE IA at 06z. 

gfs_2019011400_126_42.0--91.5.png

 

850th.us_mw.png

 

 

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8 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I haven't seen much talk of ratios on here yet, and perhaps it's still too early to discuss one of the finer details, but given the overall setup and the strong artic high that slides in after, this system seems to have a pretty good shot of some higher than 10:1 ratios, especially with northern and western extent. Using the GFS(not because I think it is correct, but because it is easy to access and the players on the field are more or less the same across all models). 850s of -8*C to -14*C could yield ratios possibly approaching 15:1 for the northern 2/3rds of the primary area of snow. Furthermore, the DGZ is fairly large and has almost no wind throughout per the GFS's solution. This seems kinda unusual to me, but what do I know. The lack of any significant speed max below 850mb makes me question the wind gust potential of this system as well. If we were looking for the B-word, I'd personally like to see at least 40kts at 850mb, not 10kts. Either way, this is a different animal from our last few storms where we struggled to reach 10:1.

Sounding is from SE IA at 06z. 

gfs_2019011400_126_42.0--91.5.png

 

850th.us_mw.png

 

 

The wind potential ramps up after that.  It also sort of depends on the track.  The GFS is far enough south that the better wind potential passes Iowa to the south.  

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

The wind potential ramps up after that.  It also sort of depends on the track.  The GFS is far enough south that the better wind potential passes Iowa to the south.  

Yea I just saw that. As the system matures, areas further south and east have better wind potential as the 850s there look to be 30-40kts 12 hours after that sounding was pulled. Even Iowa has fairly decent wind potential after the storm departs as the high presses in. Not nearly a B-word, but probably advisory criteria just for blowing snow. 

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19 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

GFS FV3 still north

 

 

image.png.b67377bf2766dfc695ca0298e3a3b0d0.png

I like the look of it!

I don't think I've seen a model output with inconsistency between its hard numbers and the corresponding gradient shading - any particular reason for the examples above?

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I would give anything for that UKMET to verify. Lol. That's just insane. Add that to model archive images. Just like I did earlier with that -32 temp from FV3. Ha. It's obvious this has a very high ceiling but plenty of room for heartbreak. A lot has to position and time right. Multiple PV's and a likely potent arctic high

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9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The euro is at least flat and weak with that lead wave compared to the GFS.

I think this run is going to shift north to some extent.  Confluence doesn't look as strong.  

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That was a nice euro run. Pretty widespread spread the wealth. Surface low isn't too amped, at least not till later but man that pressure gradient. 1048mb high! That reminds me of GHD 2011. That high was insane to. Might have been 1050mb+

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Bottom line though it is a big improvement from the 12z and definitely on the stronger side of the models tonight.

Noteworthy improvements aloft, stronger and neutrally tilted southern wave and less confluence to the north from the PV lobe. If we can hold back the confluence even more, you can get to a Ukie like solution just with the strength of the southern stream wave, as it would have a better chance of going negative tilt and cutting more north. Latent heat release from such a juiced southern wave could also increase ridging out ahead of it.

 

Edit: I bet we see an increase in amped more Ukie like EPS members on 00z EPS.

 

 

 

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Noteworthy improvements aloft, stronger and neutrally tilted southern wave and less confluence to the north from the PV lobe. If we can hold back the confluence even more, you can get to a Ukie like solution just with the strength of the southern stream wave, as it would have a better chance of going negative tilt and cutting more north. Latent heat release from such a juiced southern wave could also increase ridging out ahead of it.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah and it is not unrealistic to see that northern stream lobe be faster or the southern piece end up slower both of which would improve our chances. The key still is that initial piece on Thursday as well.  But I do like where the cards lay on this one so far.

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Yeah and it is not unrealistic to see that northern stream lobe be faster or the southern piece end up slower both of which would improve our chances. The key still is that initial piece on Thursday as well.  But I do like where the cards lay on this one so far.

Yep the Thursday piece is important too, so it's good to see that weaker on Euro and UKMET. Also, would not be unusual at all to have the southern wave come in slower. Liking the ingredients for this setup a lot, just need them to come together as well as possible.

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, hthe620110 said:

Yes, it would match December 22, 2004, but it will change by then.

Probably will change quite a bit but fun to look at especially after the 9 inches we got form this weekends storm 

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Euro ensembles look great, as good as it usually gets at this lead time in a 51 member ensemble. Multiple big dog type hits for here to northern IN and southern lower Michigan, an increase from previous run. Only counted 2 or 3 near shutouts for northern IL. Finally, distinct LE signal for southern Lake Michigan in the mean, which is impressive this far out.

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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