JustMePatrick Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS-FV3 is coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z FV was a bit north. It also had a more neutral tilt trough, with better phasing as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z UKMET stayed well south, and is very similar to the 0z run.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 FV3 dumps over a foot for most of Indiana, Ohio and Southern Michigan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: Yeah, seems like the surface lows are generally similar in strength and location on the 12z GFS and 12z NAM...but for Chicago area, GFS shows about 0.4” of liquid and NAM is close to 1”. Splitting the difference is probably a reasonable approach for now. 0.7” of liquid at 13:1 ratios implies about 9” of snow. Admittedly it’s a very rough estimate, but we will see what other hi res guidance starts showing as it gets into better range. Either way, lake effect/enhancement will be an interesting wildcard. between the lead FGEN band, the true system snow, and then LES..NE IL could snow at various intensities for around 30 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hearing that the storm for this weekend has not been fully sampled, yet. I thought it was beginning with the 12z model suite today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Jim Martin said: Hearing that the storm for this weekend has not been fully sampled, yet. I thought it was beginning with the 12z model suite today. Might have leading edge sampled. But the core of it is still offshore. 0z will be full sampling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: between the lead FGEN band, the true system snow, and then LES..NE IL could snow at various intensities for around 30 hours Yep, there will be an overlap area that gets in on all of that... anywhere from far southeast WI southward to Cook county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I see a lot of people depending on the Kuchera ratio for this system. Here in Toronto the Kuchera ratio seems really overdone. I find when it's this cold it just ends up being pixie dust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z is also casting doubt on that cold spell next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 What is really awesome is some models(particularly the FV3) still have that darned moat in between the FGEN band and the southern stream system. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If you want a really far north option...Check out the 15z RAP... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, hlcater said: What is really awesome is some models(particularly the FV3) still have that darned moat in between the FGEN band and the southern stream system. 12z Ukie does too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, DaveNay said: 12z is also casting doubt on that cold spell next week. Yea models are keeping the extreme cold bottled up further north though. Keeping the polar vortex stronger and more in tact 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Those NAM totals are the best we've had in Northern Illinois and Michigan in days You gotta reel this one in on our behalf HMIWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I am expecting a corridor of 6-10" from Chicago to Detroit Lollipops of 12+ for Chicago with lake enhancement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, AWMT30 said: I am expecting a corridor of 6-10" from Chicago to Detroit Lollipops of 12+ for Chicago with lake enhancement I am expecting disappointment for everyone west of PA with some exceptions in OH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I am expecting disappointment for everyone west of PA with some exceptions in OHI don't get disappointed.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I'm betting that because of the uncertainty IWX will eventually go for a CWA wide Winter Storm Watch with amounts as 4-7 for now ..and GRR will "think about it" then issue a purple box. (or do I have the order reversed?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMePatrick Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Snow Depth Comparison between Models on the 1/17/19 12z Run, for 12/20/19 @ 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 MKE goes with watches for southern counties and the lake shore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, mimillman said: MKE goes with watches for southern counties and the lake shore LOT issued WSW as well. Will be out shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: LOT issued WSW as well. Will be out shortly. I suspect that IWX may not be too far behind as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah I am on board with double digit totals near the lake around Chicago. Have been leaning that way since yesterday. If everything goes right and no aspect of this underperforms -- placement of initial band is good, rest of the system snows come through, and LES doesn't shift away too fast, then I wouldn't even rule out localized 18-ish amounts. But just going 10+ is a safer call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z ECMWF is finally caving and coming north. Not sure to what degree yet though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: LOT issued WSW as well. Will be out shortly. Looks like it's cwa wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z ECMWF is finally caving and coming north. Not sure to what degree yet though. It took a step, but still nowhere near other guidance. It actually has the same issue as the UKMET. The smaller waves ejecting out ahead of the main trough, which go into the phasing of everything, eject out sooner and are faster...thus the trough ends up more positive tilt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It took a step, but still nowhere near other guidance. It actually has the same issue as the UKMET. The smaller waves ejecting out ahead of the main trough, which go into the phasing of everything, eject out sooner and are faster...thus the trough ends up more positive tilt. Better signal of the FGEN band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It took a step, but still nowhere near other guidance. It actually has the same issue as the UKMET. The smaller waves ejecting out ahead of the main trough, which go into the phasing of everything, eject out sooner and are faster...thus the trough ends up more positive tilt. Even with those issues it still has what is likely warning criteria snowfall across a good portion of N IL outside that snow dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: ..and GRR will "think about it" then issue a purple box. (or do I have the order reversed?) They issued a WWA for the possibility of a glazing of ice the other day... the forecast discussion read like this “Going to err on the side of caution and issue an advisory”. I’m thinking, but when we have a storm with 6”+ of snow on the table shouldn’t you “err on side of caution” and issue a watch?? Oh wait, they’re expecting 1-2” with locally higher amounts Like the looks of the short range models this morning as well as the GFS and NAM. Looks more typical and inline with WAA snows which tend to overperform in situations like this. Will feel more solid about this storm after 00z tonight with full sampling of the energy off the pacific coast. Chicago could easily end up with some double digit snow due to lake enhancement. A rare occurrence on that side of the pond - interesting system to watch unfold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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