high risk Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Around 18 hours before event. HRRRX is up to 36 hours, but...uh... it's at https://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/ which is....shutdown... (unless someone knows somewhere else that currently has it?) Wrong. The 00/06/12/18z cycles of the operational HRRR are run out to 36 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol GGEM... it cut back from 12z... but it probably makes more sense now GGEM latched on to 12/9 here in RVA pretty far out. FV3 also, and the EURO followed ar 72 FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 How much for Philly? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, yoda said: @cae Looks to me that the 00z HRDPS looks like the RGEM/GFS at 48. It also looks more north with the QPF field when you compare 00z at 42 with 18z at 48 I was just looking at that. It looks to me like something between the RGEM and 3k NAM. The below image toggles between the 3 models at 48 hours. The HRDPS has much less widespread precip than the RGEM, but it's not as dry as the 3k NAM in our area and doesn't have the storms near the outer banks. Not a bad run for Maryland and northern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, cae said: I was just looking at that. It looks to me like something between the RGEM and 3k NAM. Much smaller precip area than the RGEM, but not as small as the 3k NAM and without the storms near the outer banks. Not a bad run for Maryland and northern VA. i noticed the NAM3K is way drier in general than other models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol GGEM... it cut back from 12z... but it probably makes more sense now It’s overdone. All other guidance agrees with that. It pairing down is playing catch up. Guaranteed it pairs down every subsequent run. Im hoping for 2” in Arlington but looks like best guess is 1” considering the WAA looks less and less robust with every run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: i noticed the NAM3K is way drier in general than other models Haha. NAM 3K actually gives CHO .00 precip. Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: It’s overdone. All other guidance agrees with that. It pairing down is playing catch up. Guaranteed it pairs down every subsequent run. Im hoping for 2” in Arlington but looks like best guess is 1” considering the WAA looks less and less robust with every run Huh? RGEM/ICON/GFS/FV3/CMC all are a go for 2-4... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Huh? RGEM/ICON/GFS/FV3 all are a go for 2-4... 18z RGEM is not 2-4 for dc metro. It’s closer to 4+ and it’s the wettest model now with cmc. Is that not correct?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, PivotPoint said: 0z RGEM is not 2-4 for dc metro. It’s closer to 4-6 and it’s the wettest model now. Is that not correct?? yes till 6z when it cuts its precip in half 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: 0z RGEM is not 2-4 for dc metro. It’s closer to 4-6 and it’s the wettest model now. Is that not correct?? RGEM and GGEM are two different models. I am not sure where you are getting the 1 inch weaker stuff. All models besides the NAM twins suggest 2-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, yoda said: RGEM and GGEM are two different models. I am not sure where you are getting the 1 inch weaker stuff. All models besides the NAM twins suggest 2-4 inches Sorry, I meant to say cmc. Cmc shows close to 6 and is by far the wettest. And gfs has trended down and nam is close to a non-event. Not trying to deb but I see optimism around which is great but wonder why considering things seem to be slowly unraveling to a very minor event imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Sorry, I meant to say cmc. Cmc shows close to 6 and is by far the wettest. And gfs has trended down and nam is close to a non-event. Not trying to deb but I see optimism around which is great but wonder why considering things seem to be slowly unraveling to a very minor event imo It’s not worth discussing the NAM when its on an island by itself. The “trends” term is overused and misused around here. Every model has the area within 0.2-0.4”. 2-4” is a good forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: It’s not worth discussing the NAM Fixed that one for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: It’s not worth discussing the NAM when its on an island by itself. The “trends” term is overused and misused around here. Every model has the area within 0.2-0.4”. 2-4” is a good forecast. I agree it is over used however I think I’m using it fine here. Euro 18z down from 12z, correct? Gfs 0z down from 18z and 12z I believe. More Nam comes into range the worse it’s looking. Cmc cut down its totals although still looks good. On a whole multiple models paired down as the event approaches closer. Looks trendy to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I like this particular map...and I think Roger Smith is a burner account for justin berk 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: I like this particular map...and I think Roger Smith is a burner account for justin berk That would be sweet except you know that’s not gonna happen. FV3 is JV at this point. Maybe varsity one day but it was one of the last to catch on to the track euro and gfs had two days ago. Might as well be a 3rd cousin to the 84 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: I like this particular map...and I think Roger Smith is a burner account for justin berk JB2 just needs like 0.10” model consensus QPF to forecast 4-8” for Owings Mills. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I guess I’m up for the euro. That way tomorrow I can be both tired and disappointed 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Not a burner account for JB, in fact past two days I've been posting 2-4" most likely DCA-BWI and 4-8" central VA. Still thinking that after looking at RGEM and GFS. Frankly, more concerned about a near miss scenario to south than any chance of bigger amounts than those. There was one moment a few days ago where I thought this storm could do much better, but tracking it on radar through NM into TX has convinced me it's a weakling that could grow into a mesomorph -- maybe that's the connection to JB1. (as for Justin Berk, who I now see is an actual person and not a fun name for Joe B, well, I never heard of him before today. And I don't even know where Owings Mills is located although I'm guessing it's north of a lot of other places?). Anyway, the divide by 3 rule seems to have shrunk down to divide by 2 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 FWIW, 00z UKIE is around 0.25 QPF for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 15 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I guess I’m up for the euro. That way tomorrow I can be both tired and disappointed Welcome back. Hopefully the euro just holds serve at this point. A couple inches on cold ground always makes nice scenery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2-4” looking likely. 4” closer to dc and south. 2-3” near Baltimore. That being said... both the November and December storms verified north versus the model consensus. We are seriously only a 50-75 mile shift away from a significant snowfall. Could see 4-6 area wide if things go our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z tomorrow will likely tell us the full story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I wonder if you'll get the same kind of snowfall that we got here when the Pacific storm ran up against the same wall of arctic high -- I realize this is a different packet of energy than the southern stream in NM-TX but perhaps the air mass interactions will be similar. We had 5.0" of snow over 36 hours and throughout the event the flakes were very small, like drizzle that turned to snow. It kept accumulating at about 0.2" per hour with some lighter intervals. But it looked like a snowstorm throughout. Temp/dew point was about 28/27 for the whole event. No wind so it just sat level and now it's very slowly sinking to about a three inch cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The Ukie backed off, but the RGEM ensemble actually improved from its 12z run. The first map below is for the same time period I posted for the 12z run. If you compare the two, you'll see this one is a little better. The second map is out to 72 hours. It looks like the FV3, but shifted a bit north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, cae said: The Ukie backed off, but the RGEM ensemble actually improved from its 12z run. The first map below is for the same time period I posted for the 12z run. If you compare the two, you'll see this one is a little better. The second map is out to 72 hours. It looks like the FV3, but shifted a bit north. That’s more than a little better. Precip is much heavier. An entire huge swath of green was added. Aka an extra 5-10mm. I think 6z and then 12z will trend a bit wetter... as the storm forms Friday (today) somewhere near the Texas panhandle, models will get a better handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: That’s more than a little better. Precip is much heavier. An entire huge swath of green was added. Aka an extra 5-10mm. I think 6z and then 12z will trend a bit wetter... as the storm forms Friday (today) somewhere near the Texas panhandle, models will get a better handle The second map I posted above can't be directly compared to the map from the 12z run I posted earlier today, because they're from different time periods. If you want to compare to the 12z map I posted earlier today, you should use the 1st map I posted above. For refernece, this was the map from the 12z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Euro seems like a general 2-4”. Models seem locked in on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Euro is better in md than12z but worse south and east. Pretty much a uniform 2-4 everywhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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