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January 2019 Discussion

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in reference to the MJO stuff. Eric Webb says the GFS can outdual the ECMWF re: MJO when there is a high amplitude wave that originates in the maritime continent. It doesnt make sense that such a high ampltiude wave would suddenly die like the ECWMF shows, anyway. 

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Would have like to seen the panel between hr 120 and 144 on the 12z Ukie, But it looked like the low moved up the coast.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Would have like to seen the panel between hr 120 and 144 on the 12z Ukie, But it looked like the low moved up the coast.

I could see that working out for northern areas. 

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Would have like to seen the panel between hr 120 and 144 on the 12z Ukie, But it looked like the low moved up the coast.

 

download (7).png

download (8).png

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4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I could see that working out for northern areas. 

Based off of the Maps Steve posted, That's no a bad track up here if there is enough cold left.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Cant see 8 h but 5H looks good

download (12).png

download (11).png

I was just checking out the 6H precip, That would actually be decent

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Funny that a favorable track for early January and the 0c 850 line is up in Canada

This current active pattern has given us more rainstorms than any other year I could recall, bar none 

now obviously if things stay active late January looks better , purely as a function of our coldest climo and hopefully with accuracy from LR pimping the period 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

That solutions is really close to the 12z GFS. It's basically all southern stream. I'd guess temps are really marginal in SNE given such a similar H5 look. 

That would even be marginal here as the s/w in the northern stream is long gone by then if that's the case.

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Just now, dryslot said:

That would even be marginal here as the s/w in the northern stream is long gone by then if that's the case.

The 850’s didn’t look that close on gfs. Maybe I missed something. Looked like a perfect track and zero cold air to tap.

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The 850’s didn’t look that close on gfs. Maybe I missed something. Looked like a perfect track and zero cold air to tap.

Fuk the GFS, It still hasn't bit on tonight's event never mind 8-10 days from now, Its a warm outlier.

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25 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

 

in reference to the MJO stuff. Eric Webb says the GFS can outdual the ECMWF re: MJO when there is a high amplitude wave that originates in the maritime continent. It doesnt make sense that such a high ampltiude wave would suddenly die like the ECWMF shows, anyway. 

 

 

Yes - this is what I was posting a few days ago re: the stratospheric amplification of the MJO signal, hence the propensity for increased warmth/cutters over the Dec 20-Jan 5 period. The MJO is actually in phase 6 right now. RMM plots suffering from rw/kw interference. The ECMWF has been attemping to send the wave into the null phase since p 3, and has been correcting since. The stratospheric driving augments the MJO signal, and there's no physical reason for the ewd propagation to cease. 

The potential threat period around the 8th-9th will feature a phase 8 MJO by that point.

 

last.90d.RMMPhase.png

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1 minute ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Yes - this is what I was posting a few days ago re: the stratospheric amplification of the MJO signal, hence the propensity for increased warmth/cutters over the Dec 20-Jan 5 period. The MJO is actually in phase 6 right now. RMM plots suffering from rw/kw interference. The ECMWF has been attemping to send the wave into the null phase since p 3, and has been correcting since. The stratospheric driving augments the MJO signal, and there's no physical reason for the ewd propagation to cease. 

The potential threat period around the 8th-9th will feature a phase 8 MJO by that point.

 

last.90d.RMMPhase.png

I figured that was driving the awful look that the EPS has in the 11-15 day. GEFS looks a lot better. 

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Fuk the GFS, It still hasn't bit on tonight's event never mind 8-10 days from now, Its a warm outlier.

Euro was colder, but still extremely marginal. Not much hope for that storm...there is just no cold air left by the time that cutoff southern stream arrives.

That's one reason we wanted the initial phase with the northern stream that whiffs at about 48 hours.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro was colder, but still extremely marginal. Not much hope for that storm...there is just no cold air left by the time that cutoff southern stream arrives.

That's one reason we wanted the initial phase with the northern stream that whiffs at about 48 hours.

I agree, That's why i made the comment on the Ukie about the temps, The Euro was marginal, But the GFS has not been good with any of the last couple events up here as far as frozen goes.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If that Ukie depiction is right.. that’s a comma head 32 degree isothermal pasting inland areas of SNE

We gotta wait to the next 

that mjo betta make it outta phase 6

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17 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Yes - this is what I was posting a few days ago re: the stratospheric amplification of the MJO signal, hence the propensity for increased warmth/cutters over the Dec 20-Jan 5 period. The MJO is actually in phase 6 right now. RMM plots suffering from rw/kw interference. The ECMWF has been attemping to send the wave into the null phase since p 3, and has been correcting since. The stratospheric driving augments the MJO signal, and there's no physical reason for the ewd propagation to cease. 

The potential threat period around the 8th-9th will feature a phase 8 MJO by that point.

 

last.90d.RMMPhase.png

The EC VP200 plots have handled it well....probably better than the gfs. Those wheeler diagrams can get noisy so they aren’t always accurate, but better than nothing. They do weaken it and send it to SAMR and points east as a stronger wave. But I still take it as a weakening pac jet and more favorable state. The problem is that all guidance has been too fast in doing this. I agree that a compromise could come to fruition between the GEFS and EPS. 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I should hope not.

Would likely  mean The late January ideas would be pushed back or less excellent 

I think there are many on here that already think that way honestly.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I should hope not.

Would likely  mean The late January ideas would be pushed back or less excellent 

It will come out of 6 very soon

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The EC VP200 plots have handled it well....probably better than the gfs. Those wheeler diagrams can get noisy so they aren’t always accurate, but better than nothing. They do weaken it and send it to SAMR and points east as a stronger wave. But I still take it as a weakening pac jet and more favorable state. The problem is that all guidance has been too fast in doing this. I agree that a compromise could come to fruition between the GEFS and EPS. 

 

Right, I agree, chi 200 definitely detects the ewd propagation better. We will probably see a compromise but weighted more toward the GEFS propagation, in my view.

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3 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Right, I agree, chi 200 definitely detects the ewd propagation better. We will probably see a compromise but weighted more toward the GEFS propagation, in my view.

12z GEFS does agree as well although backed down heights off west coast in 8-10 day. I was told the GEFS chi plots also sort of move things along but aren’t always realistic? Not sure which ones you look at, just going by what I was told for novel GEFS chi plots 

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