tim123 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Reverse it's trend it started with last night's 18z ensambles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Why are 6/18z models less reliable? Lower resolution? Less data input? I’ve always heard less reliable but I never know why? Im not going to die on a hill about this but 99.99 percent of the data in the models is not from balloons. So there's no reliability issues between 12z and 18z. In fact, model verification scores would tell you that an 18z 78 hr prog should have less error than the 12z 84 hr prog from 6 hours earlier. Occasionally you will see an abrupt change at 12z or 00z because a ballon happened to catch a poorly sampled shortwave out of the arctic. The cold temps and paralax error in the arctic make mid level shortwaves difficult to "see" via remote sensing from goes satellite. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not to look past the weekend system but 18Z FV3 throw a new wrinkle into next week...no idea if it’s credible but...for those needing their hope chest refilled after today’s modelology wobbles.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro has something like that at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not super strong storms but I think all that artic air and juicy jet love to wring out the moisture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, tim123 said: Not super strong storms but I think all that artic air and juicy jet love to wring out the moisture Did you say juicy jet love? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I sure did. Meteorological dirty talk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Trying to sweet talk the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Im not going to die on a hill about this but 99.99 percent of the data in the models is not from balloons. So there's no reliability issues between 12z and 18z. In fact, model verification scores would tell you that an 18z 78 hr prog should have less error than the 12z 84 hr prog from 6 hours earlier. Occasionally you will see an abrupt change at 12z or 00z because a ballon happened to catch a poorly sampled shortwave out of the arctic. The cold temps and paralax error in the arctic make mid level shortwaves difficult to "see" via remote sensing from goes satellite. Good post. I was just going on the answer I was told many years ago. The lack of balloons in off hour runs likely had much greater impact before the advent of recent models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 EPS mean track looks pretty good. Tucked in tight. Just don’t want to see it track out near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18Z FV3 keeps the fun machine going through the entire run. If it’s not synoptic it’s plenty of cold, clippers and probably LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Most important set of 0Z runs tonight since chicken wings were invented at the Anchor Bar. Upstate grazer leaving a barren arctic landscape behind with 2 inches of snow blown into miniature piles, or juicy powder punch depositing a thick white blanket for all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That map epitomizes Toronto's uncanny ability to avoid every storm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 SREF’s coming into range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: That map epitomizes Toronto's uncanny ability to avoid every storm It really is frustrating. Hoping the models shift back north a bit. 6" would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 For my $, tomorrow’s 12z and 0Z should settle the score as the storm will be w/in 48 hrs of arriving. At that point, any changes will be resulting more from actual system development vs model projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm not sure if euro is quicker or what but here in qpf from the 12z euro valid at 12z sunday . Same time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I think the quicker trend is important to make this bigger for ny. 18z ecmwf was quicker and better...same with the 18z gfs and fv3 gfs. The 18z ggem appears to be slightly faster than the 12z. I think the forum wants to see that trend continue. Even if the "B team" is 30 percent correct...that will help a great deal. Also, very anomalous pwats ahead of the system could cause some undermodeled convection pumping latent heat release into the downsteam ridge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just gonna leave this here...That’s only through 240 hours. Shows 3 more synoptic and 3 more lake events after hour 240. This weekends event will be the kickoff to our winter finally getting started! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Just gonna leave this here... That’s only through 240 hours. Shows 3 more synoptic and 3 more lake events after hour 240. This weekends event will be the kickoff to our winter finally getting started! . What model? FV3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: What model? FV3? Yes.. 18FV3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I think the quicker trend is important to make this bigger for ny. 18z ecmwf was quicker and better...same with the 18z gfs and fv3 gfs. The 18z ggem appears to be slightly faster than the 12z. I think the forum wants to see that trend continue. Even if the "B team" is 30 percent correct...that will help a great deal. Also, very anomalous pwats ahead of the system could cause some undermodeled convection pumping latent heat release into the downsteam ridge. Trying to wrap my head around this. So would that process enhance the downstream ridge causing a more NW track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: Trying to wrap my head around this. So would that process enhance the downstream ridge causing a more NW track? Yea. Its why you often see a bump nw in modeling the last 72 hours or so before a storm. Models cant properly resolve the increasing heights downstream of convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So is the winter storm watch awfully long in duration? Most local models have snow ending sunday afternoon and long range models do not do well with lake effect/enhancement so what would be the reason for the Sunday night and Monday time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam is way more amplified but it super suppressed on 18z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Seems to give me at least 6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 29 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Just gonna leave this here... That’s only through 240 hours. Shows 3 more synoptic and 3 more lake events after hour 240. This weekends event will be the kickoff to our winter finally getting started! . Man, if that verified it would be like January 1999 all over again in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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