wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I think nam is chasing convection.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Buffalo already posting watches. “That’s a bold move cotton, let’s see if it pays off.” There are no watches or advisories posted for this storm further west, yet. Seems a tad early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I hate to use a tired phrase but the thurs and friday model runs should begin to firm up the picture as as this system gets aboard the west coast and better data sampling gets ingested to NWP. The usual f*ckery probably awaits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Is f**kery the usual phrase? I do believe it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The system is entering the lower 48 now, tonights 00Z should paint a much more clearer pic for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Officially losing steam on this one, I guess thats what happens when you track from 240 hours out, haha (We all know better too). We'll get some front end snow and some lake enhancement. It'll be wintry for a couple days, just not a blockbuster. Thus is life. Looking further out I see some hints a big warmup to start February, that has me more depressed than anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Friday, the damn thing is in AR, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Small changes equals big improvements. The 18z joins the two earlier. Clear improvement seen in 18z. We are ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, DeltaT13 said: Officially losing steam on this one, I guess thats what happens when you track from 240 hours out, haha (We all know better too). We'll get some front end snow and some lake enhancement. It'll be wintry for a couple days, just not a blockbuster. Thus is life. Looking further out I see some hints a big warmup to start February, that has me more depressed than anything. Big warmup? Im leaving this thread for sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 84hr NAM isn't reliable at all...especially with no real sample. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 RLMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Big warmup? Im leaving this thread for sure! OUCH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yeah, it lasts 16 hrs, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Nothing is locking in yet! Too progressive, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 384 hr GooFuS, now I know your joking, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 As long as there is a ridge over AK I have a smile on my face but as soon as I see that flip, Ill bail, but not until then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Boo! Hoping to see all the models take that NW jog when the sampling gets onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Are we switching teams and rooting for the ICON now? Need a scorecard to keep this straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 BUF AFD mentions the mid-week system. Significant spread in long range model solutions exists for the midweek time frame. Signal is evident for recovery of temperatures to closer to normal values as the arctic air departs Tuesday into wednesday, but the development of a trough in the central CONUS is causing some issue. The Euro and GFS both advertise low pressure developing and moving up the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes, while the Canadian has a clipper-type low swinging through the region. Timing differences also exist between each solution, but the Wednesday time period currently appears to be the best timing for the arrival of precipitation from this system. Some warmer air gets pushed northward toward the region on the southern end of the precipitation shield, but for now will keep the precipitation type as all snow until more consensus in guidance is achieved in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Thats what i wanna see lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Thats what i wanna see lol Even tries to close at 700. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Coast rains-we toss.. Looks like 1"-1.5" for all.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Coast rains-we toss.. Looks like 1"-1.5" for all.. We Keep. 18Z GFS never wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Buffalo already posting watches. “That’s a bold move cotton, let’s see if it pays off.” Eh most of buffalo's synoptic snowstorms have some sort of coastal redevelopment. Its unusual not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Whiplash of emotions up in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 39 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Officially losing steam on this one, I guess thats what happens when you track from 240 hours out, haha (We all know better too). We'll get some front end snow and some lake enhancement. It'll be wintry for a couple days, just not a blockbuster. Thus is life. Looking further out I see some hints a big warmup to start February, that has me more depressed than anything. Losing this one would hurt. KBUF is at 32.3” for the season, and it has been a very poor LES season for every locality in the lee of Lake Erie from Hamburg to the north. The window for lake effect is closing fast. A good synoptic storm would have made up quite a bit of lost ground. My fingers are crossed, but if this pattern fails to produce for the Niagara Frontier, I’ll be ready to write this off as yet another example of the garbage winters we have seen in recent years, and I’ll be hoping for a very early, very warm spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18z GFS is more amped surges the warm air and heavier precipitation further north but hauls ass east faster than earlier runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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