wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I would say so .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Ecmwf has more separation from the northern and southern stream at 72...the gfs has a more intense and negatively tilted southern stream shortwave. The ecmwf doesnt partially phase with the northern steam like the gfs does through 96. The eps was phased with all of yesterday’s runs, it went way southeast today. The spread on eps was so small yesterday, surprised at the big leap. Still 3 days out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The eps was phased with all of yesterday’s runs, it went way southeast today. The spread on eps was so small yesterday, surprised at the big leap. Still 3 days out though. Right. I think the eps/ecmwf solution is more reasonable since the screaming polar jet from the pv doesnt generally promote phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Right. I think the eps/ecmwf solution is more reasonable since the screaming polar jet from the pv doesnt generally promote phasing. That screaming jet has been our problem all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Right. I think the eps/ecmwf solution is more reasonable since the screaming polar jet from the pv doesnt generally promote phasing. I agree. I mentioned the se trend yesterday. But what about the next system, it seems every model has that cutting despite the pv jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: That screaming jet has been our problem all winter That was the subtropical pac jet. Different thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Seems like a lot of people are writing this storm off. It'll be interesting to see what model is the winner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 56 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The eps was phased with all of yesterday’s runs, it went way southeast today. The spread on eps was so small yesterday, surprised at the big leap. Still 3 days out though. Also the positioning is further south on the EC at 12z sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I will say this, ton of GFS like solutions on the EPS members and im only half the way through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Who's writing it off? Whoever is, has no clue what their looking at and are straight greedy, cause a 6-10" snowfall is impactful nevermind 2', Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We're just so used to sick totals cause of LE but the rest of the Country has no clue and are affected by 5", lol, we're just spoiled and when we hear a foot, we're disappointed, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Too much guidance for sure these days makes it difficult to make a decision so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 day totals FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'll have next image soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Write it off. Just cause your getting a foot instead of 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That euro is 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm home from work, less stressed, and fed. Of course the GFS continues to lure me like a carrot on a stick, haha,. This 0z run tonight will be very significant.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah, may be a little better hard to tell but still a similar solution as 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'll have next image soon So that’s an improvement. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Throw the Euro out, we live in America, GFS is king now! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: So that’s an improvement. No? There are some subtle things about the presentation of that sfc low on 18z that definitely make it better. I mean its nothing spectacular, its just in the right direction. That said, its the 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 00Z HUGE TOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The biggest difference is the "broad LP " is farther west and 1mb stronger, but surface lp is pretty close to 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I take it back, I just compared the wrong images.... too many tabs open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Wish I was in Lake Tahoe right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Why are 6/18z models less reliable? Lower resolution? Less data input? I’ve always heard less reliable but I never know why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not sure if it's that much a issue anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Why are 6/18z models less reliable? Lower resolution? Less data input? I’ve always heard less reliable but I never know why? No weather balloons is the big one right out of the gates. Upper atmosphere isnt sampled well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 35 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: There are some subtle things about the presentation of that sfc low on 18z that definitely make it better. I mean its nothing spectacular, its just in the right direction. That said, its the 18z... Will in sne said it was slightly more amplified and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hopefully euro comes back nw some tonite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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