CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Still time but both streams just don't want to get on the same page with timing especially, but speed as well so........ Still much time left though, but when Friday, tomorrow rolls around, then all bets are off as far as an Epic event is concerned but instead we could perhaps have a Epic week instead with the next event right on its heels. The Euro was rain, but has gone mostly to all frozen now, depending on location, and not elevation as those days are over, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Well, most models other than GFS pair are really starting to squash this across the North Country. Any more ticks southeast and this will quickly become less exciting for much of BUF's forecast area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 hours ago, WNash said: Verbatim this is basically an advisory level nuisance for most of the Buffalo metro, so I want to see that NW trend before committing to following this storm. Definitely not an advisory level storm that's only 4 to 7 inches...euro output equivalent is .8 at KBUF through Monday which us roughly 11 to 14 inches with 20 to 1 ratios. Temps will be no better that low 20's early Saturday and dropping through the day. Won't be an 18 to 24 inch blockbuster but I'll take a foot with blowing and drifting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looking at the AFD this morning they mention the southerly track and are not concerned with it as plenty of energy will be found over WNY with an inverted trough crossing the area during Saturday night. Couple in the moisture from Lake Ontario and I believe we will all be quite satisfied come Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Agreed, I don't understand how ppl think a 12-20" snow is an Advisory event. How is that even possible? A warning is 7" in 24hr, or is it 12? who cares lol, and KBOS is talking min 12! Why do ppl always automatically take what the Euro is spitting out and go with that? I'm sure you guys have been around long enough to have seen the Euro come in second and sometimes third during some events. Each piece of guidance is like a tool in anyone's tool box and each is used for a different job, well thats how guidance is used. Thats why most use ensambles before we're within 72hrs cause its a cumulative forecast of 52 members for the EURO and 20 I believe for the GFS but we have the NAM as well for meso but I wouldn't just take one model and run with it cause it can and may be wrong on certain aspects but the GooFuS may be right on others so don't dismiss anything at this point especially no the FV3-GFS the new and improved GFS as it shows promise! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Looking at the AFD this morning they mention the southerly track and are not concerned with it as plenty of energy will be found over WNY with an inverted trough crossing the area during Saturday night. Couple in the moisture from Lake Ontario and I believe we will all be quite satisfied come Sunday afternoon. Agree. I don’t see Buffalo getting advisory level snows by the time it’s over. This is a scenario where most of the KBUF area could use a jog NW as compared to model averages but really just as a modelology insurance policy, of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Here look at this for a few seconds and salivate, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This model hasn't jogged even a bit the last few runs, and I feel it has the best read on whats about to hop over the Rockies tonight, cause that energy is fierce for sure so we'll see I suppose! Ive also compared its initialization time to the obs for that particular time and they were pretty spot on. Tonights 00Z should put the nail in anyones doubt's for this upcoming event so good luck ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: This model hasn't jogged even a bit the last few runs, and I feel it has the best read on whats about to hop over the Rockies tonight, cause that energy is fierce for sure so we'll see I suppose! Ive also compared its initialization time to the obs for that particular time and they were pretty spot on. Tonights 00Z should put the nail in anyones doubt's for this upcoming event so good luck ! Surprised no weather warnings in Ohio, PA, Indiana etc for this system yet. Perhaps not wanting to confuse people with snow that falls later today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Up until this point the Euro has the right idea and then for no reason it jumps the SLP East over the Delmarva then continues on off to the NE so its an unusual track for any model to show nevermind the Euro, lol but perhaps its right, we'll see soon enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Surprised no weather warnings in Ohio, PA, Indiana etc for this system yet. Perhaps not wanting to confuse people with snow that falls later today and tonight. You know I was thinking the same thing, but perhaps they wanted to see one more run as KBGM raised flags as well as Albany so IDK why neither State College nor Cleveland office has done nothing so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I posted the wrong pis my bad sorry to confuse as thats the 18Z as Im special, lol. Here it is. Waiting on 06Z output now so as soon as I see you will to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Great Jet structure. Right entrance region over NY will provide good vertical air ascent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Think the NWS has the right idea as their riding the FV3 obviously so hopefully it scores a coup, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: I wonder what the me so models are showing. I believe a lot of these models don't pick up on lake enhancement well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 06Z at 39hrs it just jumped the Rockies as it redevelops out over the panhandle of TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Me and matt will be fighting the most dry air here, guess it comes with the territory of living north.. Icon for example has an inch in nothern oswego county and almost double 30 miles south..Beggars can't be choosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Wish that HP wasn't dropping right down into the bread basket of the Nation like it is and I also wish that SW was a bit faster crossing the Rockies as it need to get out in front of the HP. All timing and it has to be just right for a partial phase so here's to one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Me and matt will be fighting the most dry air here, guess it comes with the territory of living north.. Icon for example has an inch in nothern oswego county and almost double 30 miles south..Beggars can't be choosers CNY gets lucky sometimes and this might just be one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 With NE winds its a shame but both you and Matt will in fact down-slope some and dry out a bit but you will certainly see heavy snows as well. I didn't think the Tug would cause much warming as the highest point I think is 2100ft right? its impressive that its even catching that as even the NAM didn't show much DLing off the Tug but the Icon is for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I think KROC is in the best possible spot to be in right now for both Synoptic and LE combined so I think they eclipse 18" easy thats just with the event then the LE kicks in to add who knows at this point. I wouldn't let my guard down as well in Niagara and Erie county cause with a 15-20mph NE wind there should be plenty enhancement all the way into WNY I would think, so this thing still has plenty of tricks up its sleeve, for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 75hrs 06Z EURO looks better for CNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just keeps getting better and better folks!! Total precip for the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro took the ukmet to the woodshed with this one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I think KROC is in the best possible spot to be in right now for both Synoptic and LE combined so I think they eclipse 18" easy thats just with the event then the LE kicks in to add who knows at this point. I wouldn't let my guard down as well in Niagara and Erie county cause with a 15-20mph NE wind there should be plenty enhancement all the way into WNY I would think, so this thing still has plenty of tricks up its sleeve, for sure. Agreed. The lake enhancement will carry quite far from the lakes inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Sure did and the FV3 said FOOK em all I'm the new king as thats been showing this for days and days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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