vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: That happens 95% of the time with these types of lows. Tough to get a miller A app runner. I understand that, but I would expect the primary to drift further N/NE in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah then it gets shunted east. The central canada shortwave up near nw ontario on that image comes in faster than the gfs at 00z and 06z. I actually think we would prefer this as it alleviates the potential dry slot with primary that usually sticks around longer. Should leave us in moderate snow for 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Gem kinda does the same as the gfs. Faster slightly beefier southern shortwave gets farther north initially but then get shunted east faster as the northern stream shortwave kicks it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Similar placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah then it gets shunted east. The central canada shortwave up near nw ontario on that image comes in faster than the gfs at 00z and 06z. What's your accumulation forecast??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Gem kinda does the same as the gfs. Faster slightly beefier southern shortwave gets farther north initially but then get shunted east faster as the northern stream shortwave kicks it east. Any worry of a dry slot wherever that primary heads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Another big storm on Thurs, goes farther west than the last. GFS has it as a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: What's your accumulation forecast??? 8 plus. Details to be determined later. I dont think it makes sense to go too high yet especially there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Any worry of a dry slot wherever that primary heads? Dryslot is not a concern for buf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Another big storm on Thurs, goes farther west than the last. GFS has it as a rainstorm. Rinse repeat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Rinse repeat? Looks more like a rinse...;) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Icon basically cut totals in half. Waffling. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 RGEM the battle between that low and high pressure is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM the battle between that low and high pressure is going to be interesting. You can look at it out to 84 here. Its experimental and not available elsewhere. http://labanimator.cmc.ec.gc.ca/wind/synoptic_e.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: You can look at it out to 84 here. Its experimental and not available elsewhere. http://labanimator.cmc.ec.gc.ca/wind/synoptic_e.html Quite north with the primary - 993 in East-Central PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: Quite north with the primary - 993 in East-Central PA. Could we be seeing a northward shift now that the storm is in the continental US??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, vortmax said: HPC - slightly NW with LP placement (yesterday vs. today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 FV3 looks a little south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: FV3 looks a little south Was hoping it wouldn't cave to the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not too much difference from 6z..2 mb stronger.. It's the next frame that jumps into NE PA, know soon enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: FV3 looks a little south Most of the 12z have same idea. They are all getting shunted east a bit quicker. Thus lowering totals. Still solid stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Little south but still north of some other guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It’s crazy to think we still have a couple days to watch this. I feel like we’ve been 3 days out for 3 weeks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The east shunt is a new trend in some ways. Its not really a cave to the 00z ecmwf. The euro didnt have the northern stream kicker come in as fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 00z euro slower with northern stream than 12z gfs or 12z gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The east shunt is a new trend in some ways. Its not really a cave to the 00z ecmwf. The euro didnt have the northern stream kicker come in as fast. Icon still has over an 1" liquid equivalent for KBUF and 1.5" for KROC and KSYR...still looks like good snow totals will be realized all upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I am liking that the GEM came in juicier. My call from a couple days ago of 8 to 14 inches with the southern Dacks and northern Catskills being champions is looking pretty solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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