paweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Kinda of warm tonight. Hope we can get those lows down as low as we can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 CTP ‘s latest expected snowfall map is impressive for most of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, paweather said: Kinda of warm tonight. Hope we can get those lows down as low as we can go. To this point, the dew points for noon tomorrow are terrible on the HRRR. Have not used it much for DP before so maybe someone can chime in and suggest whether its temp forecasts are reliable. Hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: To this point, the dew points for noon tomorrow are terrible on the HRRR. Have not used it much for DP before so maybe someone can chime in and suggest whether its temp forecasts are reliable. Hopefully not. And that’s not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: To this point, the dew points for noon tomorrow are terrible on the HRRR. Have not used it much for DP before so maybe someone can chime in and suggest whether its temp forecasts are reliable. Hopefully not. NWS point and click has me low of 27 high of 31 tomorrow. With 4-8” of snow interesting. Somehow the cold air stays locked in or there will be a big bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, paweather said: And that’s not good. I almost have to think they are progged too high but wanted someones opinion as the HRRR was not around when I lived in PA before and have really only used it for radar up to this point. Its a very popular model in Florida for convection use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NAM time soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: CTP ‘s latest expected snowfall map is impressive most of us! They have been pretty steadfast for the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 CTP is going to the mat with its snow totals, aren’t they. God bless them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Somebody better bless them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 23 minutes ago, pawatch said: They have been pretty steadfast for the last couple days. Down by Harrisburg and the Turnpike, it's more bullish than I'd go. I'd shave a few inches off that. You really need a NAM come in like a wall solution that holds off the warmth aloft as long as possible. And up further north it's also risky. UNV getting 14" is if they stay about all snow. It could easily be 7-10" if the warm air aloft wins out and the sleet line races north. This isn't an easy forecast from I-80 south. I lived in State College long enough to see promising events like these turn to an icy mess at the last minute because of warmer air aloft than expected. A day before the 2/14/07 event, 18" of snow was expected there and it ended up with 10-11" icy gunk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Somebody better bless them. The Funny thing is no one knows who is going to be right zero Consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'm just saying lol. The horde of mongrels are going to slip and slide they way to NWS offices on Monday crying "Fake News" and holding cardboard cutouts of local weathermen, screaming into bull horns and shouting out their name, if this busts so hard. The last thing the metrological community needs is people holding up a groundhog in regard while saying "If I was as wrong as the weatherman, I'd lose my job." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I see Matt is in here love you guys from WGAL good luck tomorrow, should be a fun day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 If the NAM is right we get greater than 5” in 4 hours. LOL heavy snow inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 hours ago, 2001kx said: Do you have a link? All i have is a zoomed out view (full USA) Sorry just saw this - one free site I use is http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011900&fh=0&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=sfct&m=hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, paweather said: If the NAM is right we get greater than 5” in 4 hours. LOL heavy snow inbound CTP has to be factoring in quite heavy rates tomorrow evening before the warm air hits. Which sounds awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NAM is an LSV ice storm as it continues to have trouble with the SLP location. Not exactly confidence inspiring as it flashes between different points of low pressure from panel to panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 That's how MAG gets a foot of snow and an ice storm. NAM drops 3"/hr rates for four hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 LSV has changed to ice or rain by this point so this is close to actual snow totals there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, djr5001 said: Sorry just saw this - one free site I use is http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011900&fh=0&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=sfct&m=hrrr thanks...that NAM run sucked here...on the very edge. edit: Guess its not as bad as originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That's how MAG gets a foot of snow and an ice storm. NAM drops 3"/hr rates for four hours. Looked like mostly snow and a few hours of sleet to help anchor the pack, I think i'd sign up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Lol wouldn't be a storm without Jm telling State College they're doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: NAM is an LSV ice storm as it continues to have trouble with the SLP location. Not exactly confidence inspiring as it flashes between different points of low pressure from panel to panel. That is concerning as we are inside 24. Tells me that it is still uncertain as to when the transfer to southern slide happens. Not sure what that does to forecasts ir WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: That is concerning as we are inside 24. Tells me that it is still uncertain as to when the transfer to southern slide happens. Not sure what that does to forecasts ir WAA. Yeah frustrating this late in the game models don’t know what to do. This is 2019 not 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Well...I very unexpectedly hit my high of the day at 7:00pm with a reading of 38.1. My afternoon high had been 36.0 and began to fall a bit around sunset. Then it mysteriously began to rise again up to the new high. The temp has only dropped back to 36.5 as of this writing. Not only that but when I went to the grocery store a short time ago there were raindrops on my front and rear windshields. Uh-oh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Well...I very unexpectedly hit my high of the day at 7:00pm with a reading of 38.1. My afternoon high had been 36.0 and began to fall a bit around sunset. Then it mysteriously began to rise again up to the new high. The temp has only dropped back to 36.5 as of this writing. Not only that but when I went to the grocery store a short time ago there were raindrops on my front and rear windshields. Uh-oh? Yea not much encouraging going on right now. We are going to need an overzealous/under modeled high to come to our rescue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Well...I very unexpectedly hit my high of the day at 7:00pm with a reading of 38.1. My afternoon high had been 36.0 and began to fall a bit around sunset. Then it mysteriously began to rise again up to the new high. The temp has only dropped back to 36.5 as of this writing. Not only that but when I went to the grocery store a short time ago there were raindrops on my front and rear windshields. Uh-oh?Yeah not a good sign. I have a theory that CTP is overcompensating for the November bust. People were pissed and they are showing that they will err on the side of caution. It’s the only thing that makes sense. I mean, it’s just too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 35 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Looked like mostly snow and a few hours of sleet to help anchor the pack, I think i'd sign up for that. I would sign up for half of what this 0z NAM Run shows for the Harrisburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Yea not much encouraging going on right now. We are going to need an overzealous/under modeled high to come to our rescue. You get 10 inches of snow according to that 0z NAM map. If you cut that in half for mixing & ratios that would not be too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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