Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: How is the ice threat looking? The WSW is calling for 0.10-0.20 of ice accumulation instead of the 0.25 they were saying the other day. I think a lot of the LSV sees quite a bit of sleet as it is quite cold in some of the upper columns(as Mag posted last night). Temps seem to be progged to stay between 32 and 35 so not a huge freezing rain signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Every one needs to cheer up in here! When was the last time that all of CTP was under a Winter Storm Warning? All of us will see some snow today. Try to enjoy whatever we get ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Every one needs to cheer up in here! When was the last time that all of CTP was under a Winter Storm Warning? All of us will see some snow today. Try to enjoy whatever we get ! Your last sentence reminds of: “enjoy the weather you got, it’s the only weather you get” JB I might not have it right but let’s do this over snow perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Surface temp rise already. Bumped up one degree to 33. Question is, how high do we go at the surface BEFORE this thing gets started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Many times when we have a very cold arctic high in place, the storm gets squashed way to the south. Sometimes, you need to roll the dice & hope you win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Short range model wise the HRRR shows the LSV getting up to 40 then a rain/snow mix arrives driving down temps to 33-34. We get an hour or two of snow before 850's go above freezing then several hours of sleet before changing over to rain. Precip arrives 4-5PM. Unfortunately it shows no snow accum's south of I81 and 1-3" (probably on the grass on)the North/W side of the Valley. The rain snow line gets up to the PA/NY border later tonight. Pretty much in line with NWS's point and click's that I looked at except they are too high on the snow accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Many times when we have a very cold arctic high in place, the storm gets squashed way to the south. Sometimes, you need to roll the dice & hope you win. I’d MUCH rather have Arctic air in place. We do much better with that in LSV, verses hoping to win the rain/snow lone battle with marginal cold.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Horst has nothing good to say about snow this morning as he's anticipated. Says warm air aloft wins and his low accumulation numbers are most likely...Lancaster and York 1", Harrisburg up to 4". All snow is north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I really like my call though I think even my numbers are a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Short range model wise the HRRR shows the LSV getting up to 40 then a rain/snow mix arrives driving down temps to 33-34 an hour or two of west snow before 850's go above freezing then several hours of sleet before changing over to rain. Precip arrives 4-5PM. Unfortunately it shows no snow accum's south of I81 and 1-3" (probably on the grass on the North/W side of the Valley. The rain snow line gets up to the PA/NY border later tonight. Pretty much in line with NWS's point and click's that I looked at except they are too high on the snow accums. That is almost exactly what Horst is predicting will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 At this point, we just need to see how things play out. A ton of moisture is heading our way & we should be cold enough for snow to start. Heavy precip can overcome marginal surface temps with no problem. I expect snow to stick immediately to untreated surfaces. No one in November thought we were getting 8 inches of snow because of time of year, ground temps, sun angle & other ideas that ended up being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I’d MUCH rather have Arctic air in place. We do much better with that in LSV, verses hoping to win the rain/snow lone battle with marginal cold. . Definitely! We want a storm attacking a fresh arctic air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That is almost exactly what Horst is predicting will happen. It actually has the Lancaster area getting up to 50 tonight. I would usually chuckle and say no way but the temps are so warm right now it is very believable. We needed that low to transfer south of us and it looks like it is not going to happen. A bit depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: At this point, we just need to see how things play out. A ton of moisture is heading our way & we should be cold enough for snow to start. Heavy precip can overcome marginal surface temps with no problem. I expect snow to stick immediately to untreated surfaces. No one in November thought we were getting 8 inches of snow because of time of year, ground temps, sun angle & other ideas that ended up being wrong. Yea, lets hope the front end thump really comes down! One thing is that it should be large flakes and that is always fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Since we are name dropping in here, the great met Joe D’Aleo had an excellent post this morning. He said that Artic high pressure tobthe north & west of storms should never be underestimated. He discussed how he thinks cold air will hang in longer, & mentioned old school methods of forecasting before models existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Definitely! We want a storm attacking a fresh arctic air mass. Obviously, However, my point is look what happened in December, it was was Congrats NC ! Sometimes Artic air invades & you are left hoping for an over performing clipper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: It actually has the Lancaster area getting up to 50 tonight. I would usually chuckle and say no way but the temps are so warm right now it is very believable. We needed that low to transfer south of us and it looks like it is not going to happen. A bit depressing. That's what Eric has been calling for all week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 27 minutes ago, Voyager said: Surface temp rise already. Bumped up one degree to 33. Question is, how high do we go at the surface BEFORE this thing gets started? Don’t worry abt surface. Worry about column. Surface will cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Obviously, However, my point is look what happened in December, it was was Congrats NC ! Sometimes Artic air invades & you are left hoping for an over performing clipper! Yes it depends on location of the high and blocking because suppression is a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Since we are name dropping in here, the great met Joe D’Aleo had an excellent post this morning. He said that Artic high pressure tobthe north & west of storms should never be underestimated. He discussed how he thinks cold air will hang in longer, & mentioned old school methods of forecasting before models existed. There's a name I haven't heard in a long time! I didn't know he was still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: It actually has the Lancaster area getting up to 50 tonight. I would usually chuckle and say no way but the temps are so warm right now it is very believable. We needed that low to transfer south of us and it looks like it is not going to happen. A bit depressing. The blizzard of 93 ( & no of course I’m not thinking we are getting a blizzard...just recalling a storm....) & many, many, many ... storms have started with surface temps near or slightly above freezing. please see @MAG5035 post from overnight with the upper air map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Don’t worry abt surface. Worry about column. Surface will cool. Yes. It’s the column that matters! Blizz love your positive view. It’s the weekend so heck at least no work and some snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Hey @pasnownut ! I need some help in here talking people off of the ledge this morning! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: The blizzard of 93 ( & no of course I’m not thinking we are getting a blizzard...just recalling a storm....) & many, many, many ... storms have started with surface temps near or slightly above freezing. please see @MAG5035 post from overnight with the upper air map I am just discussing the weather this AM. I do think I went too high on my forecast yesterday even for Mag and 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, paweather said: Yes. It’s the column that matters! Blizz love your positive view. It’s the weekend so heck at least no work and some snow Thanks ! Yes, weekend storms are the best. We can track all day & watch the weather unfold & not need to travel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Don’t worry abt surface. Worry about column. Surface will cool. I guess I'd just be a bit more comfortable if temps were 28-30 instead of 34, which is where I'm at now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: I am just discussing the weather this AM. I do think I went too high on my forecast yesterday even for Mag and 2001. Not a flake has fallen yet. no one has won or lost yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Hey @pasnownut ! I need some help in here talking people offf of the ledge this morning! I don't see anyone on the ledge. The storm LOOKS to evolve the way I expected. No ledge, realism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 Does anyone know what Horst is forecasting? Haven’t heard in like 3 min. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Not a flake has fallen yet. no one has won or lost yet! Well, I am not here to be a winner or a loser. This is a weather discussion board. I am not trying to bring you to the ledge. Sorry if you have taken my posts as anything other than synoptic discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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