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Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

The GFS is U-G-L-Y. Like, really terrible. 

The GFS is so far away from any other model it has to be tossed, right?. Maybe the shutdown really is impacting its data entry now. 

If it's right it's a coup like no other.

and if its wrong....it will do much damage as I've been trying to "like" it more.  lol

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Hey all! Thought I'd stop in to check out what's happening over in my old stomping grounds. Looks like a fun weekend in store for much of the forum. There's a higher than normal chance of WSW snowfall for areas north of the Turnpike with 8+" certainly in the cards for north-central and NW PA this weekend. Taking a look at the models this morning, there's a general agreement in all of the forum beginning with snow, even down to the M/D line as the initial WAA regime kicks in with the southerly H85 flow out of the surface low back in the Tennessee Valley. With the lack of a sufficient HP over the top funneling cold air into the region, we'll be prone to warming in the mids with the southern zones eventually flipping to sleet/ZR as the low level jet cranks and brings levels between 925-800mb above freezing. The surface wedge should be difficult to scower out at first, and some ZR potential is there for areas south of turnpike and sleet near the turnpike overnight Saturday into Sunday. Eventually, the area south of the pike should turn to straight rain with temps hovering around 32-34 for the remainder of the event. So, southern zones will see modest impact, but certainly nothing too rough to handle. Can see 2-6" of snow from the M/D line to the turnpike with highest amounts the further north you go.

As for the crew out west to 99 and along the Allegheny front, strong H85 frontogenesis with upslope will produce a period of very heavy snowfall for several hours with massive aggregates likely given the growth within the DGZ. Snow will transition to IP/ZR once the H85 jet max noses into the area generating a very shallow warm layer that will shift the ptype. However, once the arctic front pushes through, any shift from snow earlier will transition back with upslope snowfall continuing as PVA swings through and we get a secondary surface frontogen along the mountains. A few inches of snow will be possible on the backside with the initial changeover as the low passes to the east. This areas could very well exceed 6" with up to a foot possible in areas along I-99 to the I-80 corridor. 

Areas north of I-80 will see a prolonged period of heavy snowfall with very little chance of a changeover once west of State College. Williamsport, Clearfield, and north-central and NW tier of the state will be under the gun for a very strong H85 frontogen presence that will generate some significant banding structures across the region. 1-2"/hr snowfall will be possible in the I-80 corridor and north and will likely push totals above 8" for many in that area. Warm nose will poke northward with some sleet possible from State College and east as the surface reflection rides east-northeast over Mid Atlantic. Backside of the surface low with trailing arctic front will blast through and some backside snow is possible in the eastern valleys, but downsloping will allow for a quick drying of the boundary layer, and snow will cut off pretty quickly over the area. Frigid temps are expected post front for everyone with areas around I-80 struggling to get out of the single digits on Monday with below zero lows likely across the northern tier. Bradford, PA and the Grand Canyon of PA will likely settle into the negative teens on Monday morning with WC's well below zero for most, if not all the sub forum on Monday morning. 

Hope you guys enjoy the snow and stay warm! I'll be visiting family starting tomorrow through the 26th, so I'll be in the region, but I'll be watching from the sidelines at my parents place in Southern DE along the coast. Drip drip drip for me lol

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3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey all! Thought I'd stop in to check out what's happening over in my old stomping grounds. Looks like a fun weekend in store for much of the forum. There's a higher than normal chance of WSW snowfall for areas north of the Turnpike with 8+" certainly in the cards for north-central and NW PA this weekend. Taking a look at the models this morning, there's a general agreement in all of the forum beginning with snow, even down to the M/D line as the initial WAA regime kicks in with the southerly H85 flow out of the surface low back in the Tennessee Valley. With the lack of a sufficient HP over the top funneling cold air into the region, we'll be prone to warming in the mids with the southern zones eventually flipping to sleet/ZR as the low level jet cranks and brings levels between 925-800mb above freezing. The surface wedge should be difficult to scower out at first, and some ZR potential is there for areas south of turnpike and sleet near the turnpike overnight Saturday into Sunday. Eventually, the area south of the pike should turn to straight rain with temps hovering around 32-34 for the remainder of the event. So, southern zones will see modest impact, but certainly nothing too rough to handle. Can see 2-6" of snow from the M/D line to the turnpike with highest amounts the further north you go.

As for the crew out west to 99 and along the Allegheny front, strong H85 frontogenesis with upslope will produce a period of very heavy snowfall for several hours with massive aggregates likely given the growth within the DGZ. Snow will transition to IP/ZR once the H85 jet max noses into the area generating a very shallow warm layer that will shift the ptype. However, once the arctic front pushes through, any shift from snow earlier will transition back with upslope snowfall continuing as PVA swings through and we get a secondary surface frontogen along the mountains. A few inches of snow will be possible on the backside with the initial changeover as the low passes to the east. This areas could very well exceed 6" with up to a foot possible in areas along I-99 to the I-80 corridor. 

Areas north of I-80 will see a prolonged period of heavy snowfall with very little chance of a changeover once west of State College. Williamsport, Clearfield, and north-central and NW tier of the state will be under the gun for a very strong H85 frontogen presence that will generate some significant banding structures across the region. 1-2"/hr snowfall will be possible in the I-80 corridor and north and will likely push totals above 8" for many in that area. Warm nose will poke northward with some sleet possible from State College and east as the surface reflection rides east-northeast over Mid Atlantic. Backside of the surface low with trailing arctic front will blast through and some backside snow is possible in the eastern valleys, but downsloping will allow for a quick drying of the boundary layer, and snow will cut off pretty quickly over the area. Frigid temps are expected post front for everyone with areas around I-80 struggling to get out of the single digits on Monday with below zero lows likely across the northern tier. Bradford, PA and the Grand Canyon of PA will likely settle into the negative teens on Monday morning with WC's well below zero for most, if not all the sub forum on Monday morning. 

Hope you guys enjoy the snow and stay warm! I'll be visiting family starting tomorrow through the 26th, so I'll be in the region, but I'll be watching from the sidelines at my parents place in Southern DE along the coast. Drip drip drip for me lol

Thank you SO much for your thoughts! We all appreciate it (and you) very much. 

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HOLY CRAP 
no no no dear god no. 1" zr is catastrophic. 


I have a feeling that might not be accounting for sleet properly, but just look at the difference in the NAM snowfall output between those two maps posted previously. That area between 81 & the turnpike is not going to be pretty.


. Pro
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18 minutes ago, JTrout said:

Really hoping the Euro is on our side. The 12z runs today are the first set we should really start to put a lot of weight on. Energy just coming onto the west coast. If we lose the Euro.......I will start to lose a little hope.  #Team Europe

The North American models shut this forum down.   I agree if our European Allies do not come through it is cricket time.  Right now all we have is the Axis Japan and Germany  (Until the 18Z name, LOL).

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Someone on the NYC forum with the hard to read maps of the Ukie said it came NW of where it's been, but it's still SE of the GFS. 

Unfortunately we do not have any room for NW movement (snow) so the UK is probably going to be an ice storm. We need it to be 200-300 miles SE of the GFS. 

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21 minutes ago, JTrout said:

Really hoping the Euro is on our side. The 12z runs today are the first set we should really start to put a lot of weight on. Energy just coming onto the west coast. If we lose the Euro.......I will start to lose a little hope.  #Team Europe

                                                           

      fyp

                                                       

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

The North American models shut this forum down.   I agree if our European Allies do not come through it is cricket time.  (Until the 18Z name, LOL).

Mid Atlantic forum is crickets(compared to storm mode times) for a big storm incoming, obviously because it looks like a pure soaker for them. LSV folks could be next.......

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