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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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@81 all hell is breaking out in NC. Def. colder this run as the Euro is picking up on that CAD signature. Verbatim it's ice across the much of the region outside of I-40 west. 

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Between 87 and 96 model goes BOOM! This is a crush job especially for WNC and TN really gets pounded. Colder than the 00z run. I would be getting the supplies ready. Also someone is going to get a BAD BAD BAD ice storm out of this. 

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It isn't nearly as tasty as the 00z run on the backside though. Temps go up and we get hit with rain outside of the mountains...again verbatim. This is a tricky little run this go round. I think it's also seeing the WAA coming now. 

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Just now, griteater said:

If you are in to southern sliders, the Euro delivers.  Precip shield was a little south this run...and the big northern stream wave is diving in hard now on the backside

I'm a little confused how TN doesn't get more out of this system with the look on the Euro tonight. I figured they would be the max on this run. 

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1 minute ago, burgertime said:

Look where the red dot is :lmao:

 

 

5c08bf12a984b.png

It is tough for me to zoom in, but is Charlotte/Belmont under the dark blue blob (15-18") range? Loving the red dot over Macs crib! LOL! 

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Here's how the precip looks....Also is anyone using the 18z and 6z runs of the Euro? Just wondering how they stack up to the NAM. 

 

 

 

5c08c0626aad0.png

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3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Look where the red dot is :lmao:

 

 

5c08bf12a984b.png

That’s a possum kingdom special. Mauldin Mauler. Nice pbp burger 

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Just now, Rankin5150 said:

It is tough for me to zoom in, but is Charlotte/Belmont under the dark blue blob (15-18") range? Loving the red dot over Macs crib! LOL! 

Looks to be West of Charlotte to me.  I’m on my phone though!

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Just now, burgertime said:

Here's how the precip looks....Also is anyone using the 18z and 6z runs of the Euro? Just wondering how they stack up to the NAM. 

 

 

 

5c08c0626aad0.png

Ouch. Getting close to being a whiff here. We still get .75 to 1 inch qpf but its trending south. Nothing as close Lynchburg

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Just now, Rankin5150 said:

It is tough for me to zoom in, but is Charlotte/Belmont under the dark blue blob (15-18") range? Loving the red dot over Macs crib! LOL! 

Just outside of it. Can't emphasise enough though that no one should be focusing on absolute totals right now. Long ways to go before we figure out winners or losers with these huge totals being shown. Verbatim the Euro was big ice storm for CLT...but wisdom says there would be more snow for a lot of NC. Need to see the Bufkit data. 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Ouch. Getting close to being a whiff here. We still get .75 to 1 inch qpf but its trending south. Nothing as close Lynchburg

Yea this one was def more a southern slider as Grit alluded too. 

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10 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Look where the red dot is :lmao:

 

 

5c08bf12a984b.png

Kuchera on WxBell doesn't paint anywhere near that picture so likely loads of sleet and zr.

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Snow maps are big, but the Euro temps aloft are sketchy.  Not sure whether you go with synoptic climatology and say that there will be more dynamic cooling on the NW side of the low, or if you say that the pre-storm airmass aloft is just marginal so the starting point is too warm.

Big, closed 850 low tracks from northern Louisiana to Pawley's Island, SC.  That's pretty much textbook for the Charlotte area and north.  If you look back at tonight's CMC run, it has what I would envision to see on the NW side of the 850mb low track, and that is dynamical cooling and heavy snow.  The snow maps are picking up on the snow, but without having a sounding, it's hard to tell what's going on there.  My guess is that it's just isothermal where the column is close to freezing as you go up a good distance.

Anyway, the UKMet, Euro, and GFS have the exact same idea for the storm at the moment.

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10 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I'm a little confused how TN doesn't get more out of this system with the look on the Euro tonight. I figured they would be the max on this run. 

They just don't have the pre-storm cold air mass unfortunately, otherwise it's a perfect track for them

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Just now, griteater said:

They just don't have the pre-storm cold air mass unfortunately, otherwise it's a perfect track for them

Is this because they are not situated in a CAD favored area? Interesting...

Thanks for all you do Grit! 

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1 hour ago, Rankin5150 said:

Grit, 

I CANNOT REMEMBER the last time we scored BIG with a Miller A type system here in the Charlotte region. I mean...we have seen the run of the mill 3-6" snows, with ip and zr mixed in, but I cannot remember when we have been bullseyed with more than a few inches. I guess this is more of a question on if we have any records where we have really done well with a Miller A setup?  I am not being a weenie (well...maybe a little. HAHAHA) as this is sincerely more of a curious question, rather than "I am worried". IT SUCKS because seeing all these ONCE IN A LIFETIME MODEL RUNS that show EPIC SNOWS FOR MY BACKYARD is tough to hold my excitement in check. If anyone tells otherwise, they are lying. LMAO! 

 

The big ones that come to mind are Feb2004, Jan1988, Mar1983, Feb1979, Feb1969

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5 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

Is this because they are not situated in a CAD favored area? Interesting...

Thanks for all you do Grit! 

Yes, the damming helps us on the east side, but ideally, you'd have the cold on both sides of the Apps, a la Jan1988

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Temps aloft were weird on that run. They pushed in much colder and much further south than on the 12z run but then just warmed ridiculously fast. pushing rain all the way into a large portion of even the mountains just based on the p-type maps. 

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Just now, griteater said:

The big ones that come to mind are Feb2004, Jan1988, Mar1983, Feb1979, Feb1969

February 2004 was a Miller A? I did not know the others were as well. Awesome Info. I will have to read up on these. Thanks man! 

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Is this because they are not situated in a CAD favored area? Interesting...
Thanks for all you do Grit! 

CAD actually warms the other side of the Apps. We’re all familiar with how cold, dense air “piles up” on our side, creating CAD. However, on the Tennessee side, there’s all of the sudden much less air making it over the mountain, which lowers air pressure (why you see an inverted trough here) and ultimately warms the area.
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8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

What's the WxBell map look like?

Many places in the Upstate and NE Ga have those totals cut nearly in half if not more in some places. Definitely down from 12z outside of the far Northern upstate west of Charlotte where things stayed pretty much the same.

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