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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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I present this 12z Euro gem from the nightmare gallery. How it takes a clipper from Buffalo to northern New Hampshire 120-144hr, rains it in Maine mind you, and dumps this much snow to our west and south would be pondered for years to come. ( yeah well aware its decent for the far N&W crowd too)

 

12zeu.jpg

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54 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I present this 12z Euro gem from the nightmare gallery. How it takes a clipper from Buffalo to northern New Hampshire 120-144hr, rains it in Maine mind you, and dumps this much snow to our west and south would be pondered for years to come. ( yeah well aware its decent for the far N&W crowd too)

 

12zeu.jpg

It seems as though central and western Pa have done well with this pattern so why not keep it going.

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51 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Control run through next weekend.  We can all dream

4AF87937-04A4-4EF3-9272-830737E235A5.png

I feel particularly good about this threat given the pattern setting up beginning Sunday-Monday. There are steps to get to that solution but given we have a strong signal at some of those initial changes starting late this weekend and we arent relying on some unicorn feature setting up in 15 days this threat has legs.

Part 1 Sunday Monday pv progresses into 50/50 region

Part 2 Wed Pv retrogrades and dives into OV behind departing system and pumps neg NAO and reflection of some SE ridging

Part 3 next weekend pv starts to nose back n.... Kaboom

Eta: early to get real specific but leaning towards a crushing blow to our south DC bullseye given seasonal tendencies but we should cash in here somewhat as well. More widespread than other systems this year. I would be giddy if I lived in the Mid Atl

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I tried to take a pic while on my commute home last night.  As the sun was peaking out there was this really low level deck of clouds that stretched for a few miles.  It was spectacular looking to me, just couldn't get a good shot while driving----too many power poles, wires and buildings in the way.  Hope some of you saw it?

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Keep an eye on the coastal monday. There have been some big shifts west over the last 24 hours. So much so that if it continues the coastal area's may be in line for at least a light event. The NAM and GFS both have shifted a good 100-150 miles since 00z.

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33 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

I tried to take a pic while on my commute home last night.  As the sun was peaking out there was this really low level deck of clouds that stretched for a few miles.  It was spectacular looking to me, just couldn't get a good shot while driving----too many power poles, wires and buildings in the way.  Hope some of you saw it?

yes, interesting ground weather lately

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ECM is adamant with hitting to the SW of this region with snow and it bypassing the area except for dustings to 1" etc. Keep finding ways to fail. far N&W do ok though.

 

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I never seen a winter in my lifetime that favored N&W sections and the MA south of the Mason Dixon. Chalk this one up to a one of a kind the N&W&S winter of 2019.

  

garbg.png

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I believe that storm creates a wedge of subsidence behind as it exits on Tuesday that robs the NE quadrant of this region from the anafront snows. It's a Murphy's law winter can't wait to see the fails in February.

 

 

 

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NAM shifted about 150 miles or so to the SE with the Monday coastal so put a fork in that one. The Tuesday night fropa wave thing looks less and less threatening every run with bl warmth delaying any potential changeover. Cold for a day Thursday then progressive pattern takes over with a seasonably mild run the following week. That should take us thru the 2nd week of Feb with little light at the end of this tunnel. Pitchers and catchers will be reporting very soon....we are starting to run out of time.

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3 hours ago, I Like Snow said:

My studded snow tires are in the garage.

 

When do I put them on the truck?

 

I guess we were ahead of our time back in the 60s when we nailed a bunch of nails into the front wheel of our little brother's new tricycle to see what kind of traction he could get in the snow. We used a lot of nails. It kind of worked but wasn't a very smooth ride, lol.

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