yoda Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: uh oh Two more weeks of and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 At least the para gfs throws out the opposite of an uh oh. White christmas chance right here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: At least the para gfs throws out the opposite of an uh oh. White christmas chance right here... Just to make sure that I am on the same page and also learning at the same time... would we be watching the energy in the PAC NW for our supposed White Christmas chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Just to make sure that I am on the same page and also learning at the same time... would we be watching the energy in the PAC NW for our supposed White Christmas chance? Nothing specific. Just the fact that there's a serious W-E gradient look in the upper levels with shortwaves embedded. Much prefer a more W-E orientation of heights than uber amplified stuff. Seeing a shortwave embedded in the northern stream and another in the southern stream with a height pattern like that in general works around here. Not speaking about anything discreet or specific 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Nothing specific. Just the fact that there's a serious W-E gradient look in the upper levels with shortwaves embedded. Much prefer a more W-E orientation of heights than uber amplified stuff. Seeing a shortwave embedded in the northern stream and another in the southern stream with a height pattern like that in general works around here. Not speaking about anything discreet or specific Here's another later panel with a better visual. Southern stream pumping moisture into the boundary. Verbatim not much is going on and again, I'm not speaking in specifics, just pointing out that the FV3 run looks pretty good towards the holiday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's another later panel with a better visual. Southern stream pumping moisture into the boundary. Verbatim not much is going on and again, I'm not speaking in specifics, just pointing out that the FV3 run looks pretty good towards the holiday. The cold air pressing form the North and the NAO domain may help us more than meets the eye, as we await for the Pac to reshuffle and the -EPO cold push to arrive. A gradient pattern for sure like you said. Not set in stone, but the looks to our far North in the upper levels may improve from East to West versus West to East. I think there is still hope for the period 23 to 26 th. I don't buy the GFS 588 ridge South of Florida. But, hey like @WxUSAF said, maybe a WAR and a very cold - EPO push might work later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie looks to try to dive some energy from the northern plains down behind our departing coastal around day 6 . The warm coastal could be our temporary 50/50 . If that follow up energy was strong + deep enough and cut off under us might give us a shot . Gfs looks similar actually I am quietly keeping an eye on that time period...something diving into the trough behind the initial low. There is a limited window there it COULD work...especially for us up here and other places with some elevation help. Surface cold will be in limited supply so its iffy at best but something to keep an eye on. Were starting to get into the time of year where it doesn't take much help to luck into at least a minor wet snow event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 31 minutes ago, yoda said: HUGE trough in the west at the end of the 12z GFS with a monster HP moving E through Canada... but thats a ridiculous ridge out east What I warned about yesterday though I don't think it is to likely. If that northern based +PNA isn't as progressive as the models are showing it then we risk having the NS dump down into the SW giving us the SE ridging from Hell. Would probably take a week or 2 to recover from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Even in our crap pattern the next 10 days there are good signs... storms seem unable to really cut much... the storm track wants to stay under us. As others have pointed out there is even an outside longshot chance at something given some of the h5 passes in the next 10 days. Its not probable but even just having the chance in such an overall crap pacific pattern says something. After that... it's going to look like a shotgun blast of options at this range. Weaker waves are probably better...it doesn't take much of an amplified wave to get enough moisture over the boundary to get er done...but anything that amplifies too much can cut in such a pattern. Keep progressive waves riding west to east and we stand a pretty good chance of being near that boundary in that pattern. But in general we would probably luck into something sooner or later. Of course...get the NAO going later into January as most of the guidance suggests and it becomes a "harder to miss" pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: What I warned about yesterday though I don't think it is to likely. If that northern based +PNA isn't as progressive as the models are showing it then we risk having the NS dump down into the SW giving us the SE ridging from Hell. Would probably take a week or 2 to recover from that. Ill bet the weird look on the EPS is because it has a small percentage doing that...creating a huge ridge in the east which lead to a slight higher then normal height look that seemed out of place with other features... I don't think it would take THAT long to recover though... if the EPO ridge holds once that storm clears out of the SW the cold will want to press east. Might take a week...but I doubt 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Ill bet the weird look on the EPS is because it has a small percentage doing that...creating a huge ridge in the east which lead to a slight higher then normal height look that seemed out of place with other features... Yeah, the EPS did look a little off to me as well. Shrugged it off for the most part. Maybe it is just me but I have felt that the GFS has handled the pattern shifts we are seeing in the longer ranges better then the EPS. So until further notice I will be riding that horse. Of course it doesn't hurt that it has a much better look for our snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 12z GEFS does not concur with the op. Pretty cold look by day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am quietly keeping an eye on that time period...something diving into the trough behind the initial low. There is a limited window there it COULD work...especially for us up here and other places with some elevation help. Surface cold will be in limited supply so its iffy at best but something to keep an eye on. Were starting to get into the time of year where it doesn't take much help to luck into at least a minor wet snow event. Been watching that period a little as well. Also around day 10ish. Either one would take a lot to work out but you never know. Still thinking right around Christmas is looking very promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 The MJO is ruling right now, even more powerful than El Nino It looks like we switch from +AO to -AO in about 10-12 days, and based on the timing of MJO, the next snow chance is probably after Christmas although models are wet around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 uh ohThis looks exactly like models last year near Christmas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: uh oh This looks exactly like models last year near Christmas Yup, a 573dm ridge for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z GEFS does not concur with the op. Pretty cold look by day 15. That's good to hear. Going to be an interesting next 10-14 days as we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 These are the default maps right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup, a 573dm ridge for Christmas. And @EastCoast NPZgets his Christmas wish granted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: This looks exactly like models last year near Christmas Well, what about December 2014 then ? I know you know this , but most Decembers since 2010 have been warm near Christmas. A couple by a lot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: uh oh Merry christmas. You can lock that up right now. You can bet that wont trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: And @EastCoast NPZgets his Christmas wish granted. Well, that was for AFTER Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just an example of how a -EPO driven pattern could work in a nino...this ended up being a 4-8" snowfall across our area Feb 6 2003. This looks pretty innocuous but notice the WAR and hint at some ridging over the southeast... that isn't a bad thing if we have cold pressing from the NW in that kind of pattern. Need to get waves along the cold boundary. Generally we want to be along the southern edge of the lower heights at H5 for such a pattern to work. Get into the middle of that blue ball and its cold/dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z GEFS does not concur with the op. Pretty cold look by day 15. Cross polar flow. Potentially very cold. Nice gradient pattern verbatim. If it’s active, could be very fun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: uh oh This looks exactly like models last year near Christmas Joking aside, I do believe it will take longer than we want for things to get right. There's some longshot paths to getting something minor over the next 10 days but I personally don't see much chance. As the north pacific reshuffles and turns more favorable it will most likely (imho) take some time for our area to work its way into a favorable good storm setup. IMHO again, I don't see much chance for a good storm setup until sometime after Christmas and wouldn't surprise me at all if it takes until closer to NYE to get a shot at something decent. There's no way to sugarcoat the destruction of cold over the coming 10 days in north america. It's pretty bad even if our area doesn't torch. We've had a bunch of EPO flips since 2013 and the majority end up taking time to carve things out in the east. The odds favor the NE getting something decent before us so if that happens it will be another gut punch here but it's all very normal and kinda how we roll. The good thing is it sure feels like a good winter pattern will take shape at some point before the end of December and will probably have some staying power. A deep winter period beginning in late Dec and lasting at least through the middle of Jan could be on the table for the MA. Get the atlantic to help out this time with the -EPO and it could end up being very memorable. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Just an example of how a -EPO driven pattern could work in a nino...this ended up being a 4-8" snowfall across our area Feb 6 2003. This looks pretty innocuous but notice the WAR and hint at some ridging over the southeast... that isn't a bad thing if we have cold pressing from the NW in that kind of pattern. Need to get waves along the cold boundary. Generally we want to be along the southern edge of the lower heights at H5 for such a pattern to work. Get into the middle of that blue ball and its cold/dry. 02-03 has been consistently showing up on the CPC analogs over the last week or so. What's makes 02-03 a little unique is the blocking came early and faded but the big storms came later due to a very favorable Pac that lasted for several months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Joking aside, I do believe it will take longer than we want for things to get right. There's some longshot paths to getting something minor over the next 10 days but I personally don't see much chance. As the north pacific reshuffles and turns more favorable it will most likely (imho) take some time for our area to work its way into a favorable good storm setup. IMHO again, I don't see much chance for a good storm setup until sometime after Christmas and wouldn't surprise me at all if it takes until closer to NYE to get a shot at something decent. There's no way to sugarcoat the destruction of cold over the coming 10 days in north america. It's pretty bad even if our area doesn't torch. We've had a bunch of EPO flips since 2013 and the majority end up taking time to carve things out in the east. The odds favor the NE getting something decent before us so if that happens it will be another gut punch here but it's all very normal and kinda how we roll. The good thing is it sure feels like a good winter pattern will take shape at some point before the end of December and will probably have some staying power. A deep winter period beginning in late Dec and lasting at least through the middle of Jan could be on the table for the MA. Get the atlantic to help out this time with the -EPO and it could end up being very memorable. Bob, Do not take this personally, but I hope you are wrong... I think you are right. We want a good set up and not a fluke or even a quick change because they tend to quickly change unfavorable. I hope things begin progressing sooner, that is all. A White Christmas would be great! 10% chance maybe that could happen.. but I do not feel it is 0%, even with the atrocious look of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 15 minutes ago, frd said: Well, what about December 2014 then ? I know you know this , but most Decembers since 2010 have been warm near Christmas. A couple by a lot. 2014 is a Scandinavian block match for November. A good analog post-2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, yoda said: That's good to hear. Going to be an interesting next 10-14 days as we wait Probably pretty boring without some serious luck. But hopefully around or just after Xmas we are back in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: 2014 is a Scandinavian block match for November. A good analog post-2013 Yes, and rolled forward we know what happened in Jan. and Feb. Same progression and outcome this Jan. even though the general players are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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