Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoth said: You must've loved that one. I remember the main deform set up just to my east and New London county down to LI got nailed. Still picked up a solid 10", so it was a win. Sign me up. 18 here 30 that month, sign me up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 49 minutes ago, dendrite said: If Steve wasn't getting back treatment with Gronk I'd have him here filling sandbags in front of my run. Ice skates to the coop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Cape Cod could see a storm on Wednesday night into Thursday if the trends continue Tuesday and up until 18z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Cape Cod could see a storm on Wednesday night into Thursday if the trends continue Tuesday and up until 18z Wednesday. Not gonna happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not gonna happen Some juju magic coming for our storm??? AKA Juno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Some juju magic coming for our storm??? AKA Juno I dont see any viable path for that shortwave to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I dont see any viable path for that shortwave to amplify. Yeah, it doesn't in time on the 00z GFS, however GFS splits off some Pacific Jet energy from the southern stream upper low over CA and could get amplified by the arctic trough entering the region from the Great Lakes I will post the image I am talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I'm all set with that right now. My water table is currently 1ft AGL in spots and the less liquid equivalent the better. I want to be able to blow a foot of snow off my truck like jspin. https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/12/03/scientists-all-that-fall-rain-could-come-back-cause-trouble-spring/ZREUEyQY0dJ56jOs9KTf6L/story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 That piece of energy is our storm once again, but the latest GFS is not too happy with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Ice skates to the coop? January 1857? https://www.walden.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Journal-9-Chapter-6.pdf#page=15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 0z GGEM is 978mb over ginx's head for the system on the 10th................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The 9th is just barely within the ensemble sensitivity window, but does seem heavily dependent on the northern stream. That being said, the shortwave is like over the Bering Strait right now, and still days away from showing any sort of coherent signal to start analyzing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You say nothing, just smile. After rip and reading the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Could this be the dreaded triple phased jet storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 At hr 144 cmc has it low over nyc and the gfs has it east of Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: The Canadian does lol. At hr 144 cmc has it low over nyc and the gfs has it east of Myrtle Beach. Psst....wrong storm, Will is talking to James about hour 36-48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: The Canadian does lol. At hr 144 cmc has it low over nyc and the gfs has it east of Myrtle Beach. We were talking about Thursday this week. Next week has a ton of time and plenty of paths to victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We were talking about Thursday this week. Next week has a ton of time and plenty of paths to victory. Yeah. I had edited my post just before you posted this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We were talking about Thursday this week. Next week has a ton of time and plenty of paths to victory. 100% agree on both btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 My last post is about the late weekend into next week storm, the arctic and polar jet streams are close to phasing with the southern stream disturbance, it remains 6-12 hours too fast and avoids the Northeastern US and Carolinas even with heavy snow, instead it is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 For a rapidly deepening low-pressure center about 200 miles off the east coast, the models have a rather small area of precip blossoming with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12z GFS MEX guidance numbers showed a very cold stretch this week into the early next week period. Highs around 7-12F below normal readings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Could this be the dreaded triple phased jet storm? All 3 streams lined up and ready to go. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 53 minutes ago, dendrite said: All 3 streams lined up and ready to go. I'm more asking then saying, but thanks for the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 00z EURO closes off the H5 trough into an upper level low just south of Montauk, NY 00z Thursday, which is 7 pm EST Wednesday evening. This system is going to produce snow for Cape Cod, MA the trends are for a much more amplified trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Euro is perilously close to nuking us....there is a little northern lobe getting involved at the last moment on this run. Watch that moving forward....still think this may end up more n stream involvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro is perilously close to nuking us....there is a little northern lobe getting involved at the last moment on this run. Watch that moving forward....still think this may end up more n stream involvement. Not saying it's definitely coming or anything, but another common NWP miss is too much focus on the southern stream (and convective latent heating) while the northern stream is often just as strong an influence. Some of our satellite estimate techniques tend to break down for the northern stream too. WV gets "washed out" because sampling cooler temps in general across the north tricks the satellite into thinking the features may be higher in the atmosphere (shallower) than reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: Not saying it's definitely coming or anything, but another common NWP miss is too much focus on the southern stream (and convective latent heating) while the northern stream is often just as strong an influence. Some of our satellite estimate techniques tend to break down for the northern stream too. WV gets "washed out" because sampling cooler temps in general across the north tricks the satellite into thinking the features may be higher in the atmosphere (shallower) than reality. I'm just writing a blog on how the n stream will be under modeled this season given weak modoki el nino backdrop....I think its coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/northern-stream-trouble-potentially-on.html I'd watch this..plenty of potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/northern-stream-trouble-potentially-on.html I'd watch this..plenty of potential. Great blog post Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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