Upstate/Eastern New York

[TugHillMatt]

Some very decent snow showers falling around the home this evening. Definitely a white Christmas there. When I got to Danville, PA last night, it was 65 degrees with thunderstorms! Might even be able to eek out a White Christmas down here if this system can provide.

[wolfie09]

 The CO one will be the first
feature of interest as it moves a little more quickly to the east by
hitching a ride on the tail of a pseudo-zonal subtropical jet over
the SE US, while the ND system will move eastward at a slower pace.
A weak surface and elongated trough will develop ahead of these
features with some precipitation development along the trough axis
by Sunday evening.  For snow lovers, this is not an awe-inspiring
setup as it is lacking in synoptic lift and mesoscale help from
nearby lake influences.  The result may be some light snow to our
south and possibly over the Southern Tier, with a lower chance for
much of Western and Central NY as the weak surface trough stretches
out over the region. Even if snow does fall, accumulations look
rather sparse with best chance scenarios of around and inch or two.

On Monday, the ND shortwave will be over the Northern Great Lakes
and approaching the region.  This will provide another opportunity
for some snow, with a little more help from the lakes on a WNW flow,
meaning to some extent the Chautauqua Ridge and (better) areas SE of
Lake Ontario will have another chance to see some snow showers
before and on Christmas Eve.  Upper level support is there with the
shortwave, along with the airmass aloft just cold enough to for
lapse rates supporting snow together with a cap around 10000`.
Moisture is there too, at least through the dendritic growth region,
although synoptic moisture isn`t impressive beyond the cap.  With
the above in mind, multibanded snow showers are a possibility with
the usual relatively low confidence ~2 days for WNW flow.  But at
least there`s something to latch onto however.  As usual, with this
flow, the hardest area to forecast for will be the Niagara Frontier
with the low possibility of a weak `gotcha` band originating off
Lake Huron.

[BuffaloWeather]

29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

 The CO one will be the first
feature of interest as it moves a little more quickly to the east by
hitching a ride on the tail of a pseudo-zonal subtropical jet over
the SE US, while the ND system will move eastward at a slower pace.
A weak surface and elongated trough will develop ahead of these
features with some precipitation development along the trough axis
by Sunday evening.  For snow lovers, this is not an awe-inspiring
setup as it is lacking in synoptic lift and mesoscale help from
nearby lake influences.  The result may be some light snow to our
south and possibly over the Southern Tier, with a lower chance for
much of Western and Central NY as the weak surface trough stretches
out over the region. Even if snow does fall, accumulations look
rather sparse with best chance scenarios of around and inch or two.

On Monday, the ND shortwave will be over the Northern Great Lakes
and approaching the region.  This will provide another opportunity
for some snow, with a little more help from the lakes on a WNW flow,
meaning to some extent the Chautauqua Ridge and (better) areas SE of
Lake Ontario will have another chance to see some snow showers
before and on Christmas Eve.  Upper level support is there with the
shortwave, along with the airmass aloft just cold enough to for
lapse rates supporting snow together with a cap around 10000`.
Moisture is there too, at least through the dendritic growth region,
although synoptic moisture isn`t impressive beyond the cap.  With
the above in mind, multibanded snow showers are a possibility with
the usual relatively low confidence ~2 days for WNW flow.  But at
least there`s something to latch onto however.  As usual, with this
flow, the hardest area to forecast for will be the Niagara Frontier
with the low possibility of a weak `gotcha` band originating off
Lake Huron.

What in the world is a gotcha band? They drinking at the office? 

[vortmax]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What in the world is a gotcha band? They drinking at the office? 

They seem to happen all the time for Niagara & Orleans ctys! 

[wolfie09]

Lets see how this one turns out..

[CNY-WXFREAK]

You have a total so far for our area CNYwx?  I'm wondering about Dec, thanks in advance!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

IDK about anyone else but for my area this gets me excited.

So a definite chance at some decent snow for about 12 hrs.

[wolfie09]

May need to take a trip down to Fulton lol

[wolfie09]

Rgem is more of a 280 flow, while 3kmam is more 300..

 

[wolfie09]

High Rez Canadian/NMM and ARW like south of Oswego county..

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

When u get a West wind u pretty much know where the band is going, WNW not so much lol

Could be anywhere from the northern cuse burbs to Mexico/parish/maple view.. 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I'm loving where I'm at right now about 7 miles to the ESE if Fulton pretty mu h right in line with RGEM but since Im in the Jacked up area, it's a definite it's likely not to happen, lol!

Good Disc amour the set up off both Lakes which all of a sudden looks quite interesting, lol, ya just gotta love LE and I guarantee it extends into Christmas Day cause once they start they usually go a bit longer than first anticipated as now they mention early Christmas morning.

The lake effect setup does become a little more interesting in the presence of this clipper however. 850mb temps will drop off to around -10C on Monday. The cold pool aloft and deeper synoptic scale moisture will allow lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to 8-10K feet Monday and Monday evening, setting the stage for a more robust lake response. CIPS analogs also support a good potential for accumulating lake snows east and southeast of the lakes. Off Lake Erie...the latest mesoscale guidance suggests a band will become better organized over the east end of the lake Monday morning as the cold front of the clipper crosses the lake. This may allow a brief, heavy band to move onshore from southern Erie County into the western Southern Tier on westerly flow, evolving into more of an upslope lake effect event by afternoon. Monday night boundary layer flow will become more northwest, which may allow for a brief Lake Huron connection to develop and continue to produce some modest lake effect snow across the western Southern Tier. The well aligned flow, good dendritic crystal growth, and synoptic scale support suggest there is some potential for advisory snow amounts, with a first early estimate of 3-6 inches total in the most persistent bands Monday and Monday night across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. Decreasing moisture and instability will force the lake effect snow to taper off later Monday night, with any remaining snow showers coming to an end Tuesday morning. Off Lake Ontario...the latest mesoscale model guidance suggests a band will be getting organized over the lake Monday morning. This should briefly extend into the Tug Hill region for a time during the day Monday on westerly flow. Boundary layer flow will then become more northwest Monday night, carrying lake effect snow to the southeast corner of the lake. A convergence zone associated with the weak clipper low track may setup over the central and eastern portion of the lake, possibly aiding in concentrating the lake response across Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. The closer proximity of the clipper low will also bring a greater degree of shear over Lake Ontario, which brings greater uncertainty with respect to band organization. The latest mesoscale guidance and overall setup suggest several inches of accumulation across the Tug Hill region Monday, with several inches possible southeast of Lake Ontario across Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties Monday night. The western end of the band may also clip northern and eastern Monroe County Monday night depending on where the convergence zone develops. There is at least a low potential for advisory amounts east and southeast of Lake Ontario, but the higher amount of shear brings lower confidence here as opposed to Lake Erie. A few snow showers may linger southeast of the lake into Tuesday morning before dry air and lowering inversion heights bring an end to the lake response. Another very weak wave will cross the eastern Great Lakes later Tuesday night and Wednesday. This feature may produce a few scattered light snow showers with spotty, very light accumulations.


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[CNY_WX]

4 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

You have a total so far for our area CNYwx?  I'm wondering about Dec, thanks in advance!

I’m at 31 inches for the season but only 5.5 for December. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Wow thats horrible.

[wolfie09]

That's better than what Fulton has this year lol

[wolfie09]

Last nights euro didn't look to bad over the next 10 days, several shots at accumulating snows..

Yes some rain from time to time as well..

 

[rochesterdave]

Pretty much every model, KROC sitting right on the goose egg for the next 5-10 days. 

Much more interesting over Oswego. I hope it pans out. The models are pretty damn local. Hope one of you gets lucky!

[wolfie09]

Could be a decent one for our buddy down in hannibal, if the 3k has a clue..

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Could be a decent one for our buddy down in hannibal, if the 3k has a clue..

It definitely looks good for Oswego/Fulton. Someone is going to a decent event. 

[Revracer800]

12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Could be a decent one for our buddy down in hannibal, if the 3k has a clue..

That would be me lol. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

And me, and its been a while, lol, and just in time for xmas.  What great timing!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Does anyone know the LES Cips analog link?

[Syrmax]

3 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

I’m at 31 inches for the season but only 5.5 for December. 

I have 8.5" in December....the hard way.

[wolfie09]

Rgem

[wolfie09]

Hp says im GTFO here lol

[Syrmax]

2 hours ago, Revracer800 said:

That would be me lol. 

Also juicy IMBY. Keeping expectations in check though...

[rochesterdave]

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

I have 8.5" in December....the hard way.

“The hard way”-

dying

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Hp says im GTFO here lol

Yeah the models took another step back in delaying the cold air. If you look at the indices it should be good with a strong PNA and Negative NAO, but the Pacific needs to help.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

[lakeeffectkid383]

59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah the models took another step back in delaying the cold air. If you look at the indices it should be good with a strong PNA and Negative NAO, but the Pacific needs to help.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

I’ve really given up hope for this winter already honestly. I know it’s early and it could change but it looks to be at least several weeks before any significant cold/pattern change looks to be here and by then we’re in mid January and the lake will likely be nearing freezing and we all know how it goes for WNY to get anything significant synoptically. Give me spring, for real, and you can double bun me all you want but this season is toast.