BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 December is my favorite winter month, sucks losing it. But I’m still optimistic in above normal snowfall for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: December is my favorite winter month, sucks losing it. But I’m still optimistic in above normal snowfall for the year. It’ll be a heck of an impressive period if we go from we were are now to above normal considering the next few weeks look not so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: It’ll be a heck of an impressive period if we go from we were are now to above normal considering the next few weeks look not so good. I think the PV pays a visit mid/late January a few times. Obviously banking on 1-2 big LES events with a 40 degree lake in winters prime month we should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Light years away, but this is the time period most are watching.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: That’s beautiful Wolfie. I’m grateful for your optimism! Seriously. I’m gonna post the 12k NAM and then laugh for an hour. I’ll eat my hat if this comes to fruition. I'll eat my hat if you don't see snow covering the ground for at least some time over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 6 hours ago, wolfie09 said: We still have time for that HP to be better positioned.. The system would be forced to undercut it or redevelop which several GEFS members are hinting at.. Case in point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Light years away, but this is the time period most are watching.. I've been mentioning that storm for 2 days now. Its been really consistent the past few days. Yes it's WAAAAYYYY out in unicornville but I like the consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 Synoptic is so boring around these parts compared to lake effect. It just doesn’t get me excited unless it’s a big storm. (12”+) and those are rare. The rates within synoptic usually suck too. That storm is 2 weeks away. Double hot dog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 3k NAM looks crazy for WNY. I might need hat recipes. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I thought for sure that the snow we got earlier this week would melt today, but am surprised that it survived. Still have a 4 to 6 inch glacier base (except for the usual quick melting places.) Don't think we will have much, if any, left over after this stupid cutter. Start all over again on Saturday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Yup, always last second surprises.. 12k agrees with the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 It's the NAM, going to need some other models to show something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I personally trust the NAM products over gfs/ecm when it comes to thermal profiles.. Lets see what the rgem shows, rolling now.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Granted it’s the end of the run and it’s still snowing.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 I see rain below 1000 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 I think the tugs best chance for good snow is 24/25th. I think you guys will have a white Christmas. The rest of us below 1k feet will be green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think the tugs best chance for good snow is 24/25th. I think you guys will have a white Christmas. The rest of us below 1k feet will be green. I’m in agreement. These little blips will at least make it fun. Begging for scraps this December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 What am i missing lol At the very least that's frozen precip and it only gets colder from here on out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 That is the soundings from the 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, wolfie09 said: That is the soundings from the 18z.. Oops 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Granted it’s the end of the run and it’s still snowing.. I will take that! Currently some snow mixing in with the rain here with a temp of 34/35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Rgem definitely no Nam lol Change over time is almost identical, it's the amount of precip left in the cold sector.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Pretty much every system this cold season has lacked precipitation in the cold sector. Thus, only higher elevations and the moose in northern New England have benefited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I'd be thrilled with 3" from this event, albiet takes like 10hours to accumulate..lol Surface looks below freezing which should help..Actually most of the event we are in the upper 20's.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Change over time looks like midnight sat for wny and 6-7 am into the eastern L Ontario Region..According to Rgem/Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Not much cutting on that run, obviously don't care what it shows verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Getting there, wolfie. Looks like what you and I talked about with it being shunted east instead of going north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Still...very anemic precipitation in the cold sector though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just need the confluence to be a little stronger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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