rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I’ve really given up hope for this winter already honestly. I know it’s early and it could change but it looks to be at least several weeks before any significant cold/pattern change looks to be here and by then we’re in mid January and the lake will likely be nearing freezing and we all know how it goes for WNY to get anything significant synoptically. Give me spring, for real, and you can double bun me all you want but this season is toast. I’m with ya bro. I never had a ton of hope for this El Niño nonsense. But it’s way too early to give up hope. I know it’s gotta be extra frustrating for the BUF folks seeing as December is their month and they didn’t get a lot of the good stuff in November. It really has been a sucky stretch. I feel your pain. I’m really hoping the Fulton and Syracuse crew gets a couple inches from our clipper/ LES. Something! Anything!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Updated map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Updated map That ends at 10PM as well when it should still be snowing till Mid Christmas Morn so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Thats what soundings are telling me but they too cant be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Looking at the GFS, winds go from W-NW-NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 I think a general 2-4" should do it except for the higher hills where a little more is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 215 PM EST Sun Dec 23 2018 NYZ004>006-240400- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0072.181224T1100Z-181225T0300Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 215 PM EST Sun Dec 23 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 10 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute, or holiday travel. The steadiest snows will be Monday afternoon and early evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Whoever is under the band, at 7PM or there about should be experiencing some nice rates, in fact, some downright intense rates as lapse rates are ideal, There is virtually No Cap in place or about 6hrs or so. Snow growth region bisects both the Omega and Moisture so once again things can get very interesting but who knows where this damn thing is gonna set up. The absolute worst aspect of WNW and NW flow events is that no one can forecast the placement, even during the event, lol! 06Z 1AM, still snowing but we begin to dry out from the top down but id imagine some moisture may get trapped under the inversion, so we'll see but things look good for about a 6-10 hr period so pray the bands heads over and stops right above your crib cause thats what I'm hoping but I feel like I'm gonna get caught between 2 main bands, one across KFZY just to my North and East across Central Square and the other to my South over Phoenix and continues over Great Northern Mall then over Brian crib on East from there, and I'm right smack dab in the middle of both, lol! at least I wont have to travel too far to hit some decent rates! I'm currently thinking we see our most intense rates between 09Z Monday and 3Z Tuesday and that falls right on one of the busiest travel days of the yr so whoever is venturing out be careful on the roads and make sure you have your Winter Road Kit with you! You know ppl laugh at that, but let me watch someone get stuck on a highway for hrs for some strange reason without one and you'll realize why you should invest in one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 I think a couple of places like Hannibal and Scriba have a chance to hit double digits if things line up real well but there is quite a bit of shear on the Lake during the event so its hard to pinpoint exactly where the band will form so keep your fingers crossed if you have a chance, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I think a couple of places like Hannibal and Scriba have a chance to hit double digits if things line up real well but there is quite a bit of shear on the Lake during the event so its hard to pinpoint exactly where the band will form so keep your fingers crossed if you have a chance, lol! Hannibal you say, I'm ready for it lol. I finally got the plow on the 4 wheeler last week so I'm ready now haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Almost in the game lol Looks good just to the south, as of now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Well this would be a nice surprise. I was thinking we'd probably have more "atmosphere" snow then anything measurable. The 3/4" snow cover here is tenuous at best for making it till Christmas day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Quick hitter, but strong band.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 I think one of us down here gets in under one of these bands that'll be in the area so I'm crossing my fingers. Even KBGM doesn't know where the band is going to form cause they said we may need to hoist adv's eventually over portions of the KBGM CWA. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 940 PM EST Sun Dec 23 2018 NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044-250245- Northern Oneida-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison- Southern Oneida-Cortland- 940 PM EST Sun Dec 23 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a potential for a few snow squalls Monday afternoon and evening. Travelers should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions if caught in a snow squall as roads could quickly become snow covered with poor visibility. Additionally, a lake-effect snow band is expected to develop to the east-southeast of Lake Ontario Monday afternoon and continue through early Tuesday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory may eventually be needed for a portion of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Quick hitter, but strong band.. Its definitely not gonna be that transitory, but that's just my opinion, as winds don't veer that quickly according to soundings anyway, but they could be off like I said earlier. Someone ends up with double digits before all is said and done Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 High rez Canadia had like 8"-10" in just a few hours here, ill believe when i see it lol Winds look to start out westerly ahead and during the passage of the clipper.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 I hope its all of us! Even the band over Erie looks good for a time, albeit a bit over done I think but who really knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 If the winds veer NW behind the clipper/front u better believe it will be transient haha We have been down that road many times.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 What a great surprise we've ended up with this yr it looks like. My luck, I get caught between the both of them if there is 2 bands, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Thats my point, On the soundings they don't seem to veer that quickly behind the front, like winds often do behind a CF but it also depends how it comes through the area. There looks like a convergence zone gets set-up someone across the area just to the South of me, if thats the case then the band settles over us but if the convergence is just to my North then you Wolf will get the lion share. The set-up is complicated but its a good set-up as far as moisture, duration, lapse rates and wind directions so we'll see what happens starting early tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Not east being a MET around these prts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Maybe an inch, maybe a foot, who knows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Forecast has not changed much, time for some nowcasting.. Temp 30 with some light snow, looks like a fresh coating.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Another 0.25” snow overnight. Drip, drip, drip... I don’t recall ever getting more than about 8” here on WNW flow with a purely LES event, IMBY. So, 1-5” makes sense as the fluff factor won’t be especially high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Christmas eve snow and the potential for new years eve/day snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Author Share Posted December 24, 2018 Christmas eve miracle? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Haha you beat me to it.. Hopefully we all can get in on some snow .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Author Share Posted December 24, 2018 Well we got our white christmas already here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Trying to make up for lost time, wed morning another time frame to watch on many models.. Too bad it will soon be washed away anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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