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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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The PNA ridge looks to strengthen at the end of the month, The pacific looks neutral, with a negative NAO and negative AO which usually leads to the best mid Atlantic snowstorms. All in all it should result in slightly below normal temps which should translate to mostly snow at this time of year. 

E3P0tgw.png

ao.sprd2.gif

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27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The PNA ridge looks to strengthen at the end of the month, The pacific looks neutral, with a negative NAO and negative AO which usually leads to the best mid Atlantic snowstorms. All in all it should result in slightly below normal temps which should translate to mostly snow at this time of year. 

E3P0tgw.png

ao.sprd2.gif

Honest question...how does a tank AO and tank NAO with a ridge out west only get us to slightly BN temps? We're probably 6 or 7 bn for this month and we didn't have that set up at all. 

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33 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Honest question...how does a tank AO and tank NAO with a ridge out west only get us to slightly BN temps? We're probably 6 or 7 bn for this month and we didn't have that set up at all. 

The pacific is neutral. We need a neg epo/wpo. This type of pattern is also the best for Southwest flow les events as we get a long wave through across the Great Lakes as the entry point of cold air we want across the dakotas/Montana, not confined to the northeast. A negative nao/ao favors a northwest flow due to blocking. So it’s not really the best pattern for Buffalo. 

0EAA24F3-EB96-4C15-A0E8-641E1ED544C3.jpeg

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31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The pacific is neutral. We need a neg epo/wpo. This type of pattern is also the best for Southwest flow les events as we get a long wave through across the Great Lakes as the entry point of cold air we want across the dakotas/Montana, not confined to the northeast. A negative nao/ao favors a northwest flow due to blocking. So it’s not really the best pattern for Buffalo. 

0EAA24F3-EB96-4C15-A0E8-641E1ED544C3.jpeg

So that's kind of my point...it reminds me of 09-10 when we were frigid but dry because the storm track was off to our east (I think that's the year of all the big easy coast storms) and we were high and dry but frigid...save for that one odd NW flow event that clobbered Niagara Falls.

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So that's kind of my point...it reminds me of 09-10 when we were frigid but dry because the storm track was off to our east (I think that's the year of all the big easy coast storms) and we were high and dry but frigid...save for that one odd NW flow event that clobbered Niagara Falls.

Exactly, but it's still relatively early so we won't be frigid in late Nov even with 5-6 deg. departures. I'm leaning towards slightly below normal due to Pacific. We need to get a metro lake effect event in December or we will have to rely upon synoptic to reach above average snowfall. But don't forget in 76-77, Lake Erie was frozen by the New Year and that was our best winter of all time. There are always statistical anomalies. 

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Posted in the Lakes... Thought I'd share here too.  

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Never thought I'd see a map like this for Nov 17th. 

sfav2_CONUS_2018093012_to_2018111712.png

Posted in the Lakes... Thought I'd share here too.  Your area is off to a great start.  Hope Erie doesn't cool too soon.

untitled.thumb.png.30e915344f3ec97c6b2fd28eb53a2bb7.png

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Have a chance to not get out of the teens on Thanksgiving, with snow showers with a stiff NW wind, so that's close to 25 degrees below the norm for mid-to-late November. That type of cold, for this time of yr, is definitely not needed, lol, only needs to be 32 to snow!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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Posted in the Lakes... Thought I'd share here too.  
Posted in the Lakes... Thought I'd share here too.  Your area is off to a great start.  Hope Erie doesn't cool too soon.
untitled.thumb.png.30e915344f3ec97c6b2fd28eb53a2bb7.png
I have serious doubts about the depth in Niagara County or the Enscarpment itself. There are areas that literally got nothing up there, seriously? How is that even possible?

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40 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I have serious doubts about the depth in Niagara County or the Enscarpment itself. There are areas that literally got nothing up there, seriously? How is that even possible?

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Looks like maybe a single wx reporter reporting zero. It has an odd circular shape (typically unusual). I’d think they must of had at least an inch or two? On the other hand, Niagara and Orleans are infamous snow holes and this year hasn’t had crap come off Erie on a SSW flow. Mostly elevation synoptic, WNW LES and our recent dump that left them shafted with sleet. 

Great map, otherwise. 

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Quite the chilly night tonight , down to 19° , cloudy skies but still a decent snowpack and light winds..

Interesting time period day 8-10..Both Euro and GGEM show 2 big storms during that time period with a ton of precipitation..

 

7FF008A8-10F1-48E0-AD67-ECC0CB1467E1.png

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6 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I have serious doubts about the depth in Niagara County or the Enscarpment itself. There are areas that literally got nothing up there, seriously? How is that even possible?

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

The snow hole in Niagara has a 1.5-2" season total.  Areas that have seen no snow to date would be just plain white, so the only place on the map I see that hasn't had any snow is on the Jersey shore.  I think the map is pretty accurate... not 100%, of course.

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We gotta watch the little feature slated for Tuesday. If we can get a little earlier interaction between the two pieces of energy, it’ll be west. 

Looking at deep cold on turkey day. There’s another small feature coming north of the lake. If it stays north, it will back the winds to SW. BUF, I smell something here! Good luck. namconus_asnow_us_19.png

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40 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Yes all of wny 10 to 25 inches. But that seems extreme. Lol

Who cares anyway, 10 days out?  If it was 9 days, Id be interested!

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There's no warm-up coming anytime soon, in fact, its gonna get even colder and stormier, so if anyone is expecting one last tee time, I'd call it off for the forseeable future, lol!

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Yea, wouldn’t be to confident with this look lol It’s 8-10 days away and models are showing two distinct events..

This looks like some sort of inverted trough , conveyer belt of moisture streaming in from the Atlantic..

DDA6672B-2D27-4A28-8A9D-632BD08CDC4F.jpeg

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Yea, wouldn’t be to confident with this look lol It’s 8-10 days away and models are showing two distinct events..

This looks like some sort of inverted trough , conveyer belt of moisture streaming in from the Atlantic..

DDA6672B-2D27-4A28-8A9D-632BD08CDC4F.jpeg

That won't be like that in 12 hrs, much less 10 days, lol!

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Yea, wouldn’t be to confident with this look lol It’s 8-10 days away and models are showing two distinct events..

This looks like some sort of inverted trough , conveyer belt of moisture streaming in from the Atlantic..

DDA6672B-2D27-4A28-8A9D-632BD08CDC4F.jpeg

I remember one like that, but not that localized. The S BUF and SYR boys would be on suicide watch. 

 

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