rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Yeah, I wouldn’t trust that if was an 18hr HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Just now, rochesterdave said: Hey Tim, Wofie, which euro provider did you go with? Weatherbell? Ive gotta up my game. I want access to the new 6/18z runs. Are you getting those? Wxbell was good because it also had some meso models if I recall correctly (doubtful). weathermodels,com Dr. Maue, hes the one who created Wxbells model page but he went on his own and now has his own site and its cheaper. wxbell does not have 18Z runs of Euro. I have wxbell and an cancelling at end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 I use WB because their maps are top notch..They are a little pricey ($25) a month..U don’t get 6z/18z Euro.. U do get some meso models, NMM,ARW,3k nam,hrdps,hrrr etc plus all the ensemble and long range goodies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Lightly snowing now with this baroclinic nuisance but I might grab an inch or 2. Whiten things up a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I use WB because their maps are top notch..They are a little pricey ($25) a month..U don’t get 6z/18z Euro.. U do get some meso models, NMM,ARW,3k nam,hrdps,hrrr etc plus all the ensemble and long range goodies.. Go to weathermodels.com seriously, has everything that wxbell has and more, and its cheaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 This is the feature I’ll be watching to give BUF a few hrs of SW flow. I have a great feeling for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 I went with twitter. It’s free and I get my choice of selection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 It’s been snowing here all morning, not really sticking but a nice wintry feel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Or you can just pluck from other sub forums and paste here, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 I really like late November timeframe for a retrograding low and lake enhancement south of Ontario. That blocking is legit. Very strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 I agree and the Euro is sniffing early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Messy LR Storm 1 Storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I really like late November timeframe for a retrograding low and lake enhancement south of Ontario. That blocking is legit. Very strong signal. Retrograde lows allow The South shire to accumulate incredible amounts of qpf. We don’t need much to seed the lake process. It’s usually a late winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Retrograde lows allow The South shire to accumulate incredible amounts of qpf. We don’t need much to seed the lake process. It’s usually a late winter event. It is? Do you have concrete data to prove that? I'm pretty sure it can happen anytime of the year with equal chances depending on the indices in place. You need blocking to retrograde the low, that doesn't happen just in late winter. Remember Nov. of 2016? Buffalo got nothing while you guys got 2-3'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 I think its more common in early winter actually. This is another example of a retrograding low. The busy December continued with another classic...a strong northwest flow event on the heels of our major southwest event. After a two day break...a strong northwest flow of arctic air set up...with plenty of synoptic moisture spinning back from a retrograding low over Quebec. This combination led to a long lasting event. There were several periods of more organized snow during the four day period ...but the activity never really stopped until Thursday (9th) when high pressure finally settled in and squashed the activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 And another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 Is the GFS going through another update? Hasn’t run since yesterday’s noon run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 Realized it's just Tidbits, Pivotal is working fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 I don’t have proof but I have 46 years of living here. I could be wrong but I think of retro lows happening in March and the end of February. But that’s just anecdotal. I think we had a broader discussion last year about Roc vs BUF snowfall and that Roc gets it more at the end while BUF does well early in the season. That at least is provable. We, as you said, need a block or significant traffic in the N Atlantic. Progressive wx patterns don’t lend to that scenario and idk but November seems progressive usually. usually and seems are piss poor terms for a scientific discussion. I’ll try and research Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Interesting bit on a couple big blocks: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/22/the-pattern-that-lies-ahead-is-known-for-big-east-coast-snowstorms-including-the-d-c-area-sometimes/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I don’t have proof but I have 46 years of living here. I could be wrong but I think of retro lows happening in March and the end of February. But that’s just anecdotal. I think we had a broader discussion last year about Roc vs BUF snowfall and that Roc gets it more at the end while BUF does well early in the season. That at least is provable. We, as you said, need a block or significant traffic in the N Atlantic. Progressive wx patterns don’t lend to that scenario and idk but November seems progressive usually. usually and seems are piss poor terms for a scientific discussion. I’ll try and research That's because Lake Erie freezes early, if it didn't Buffalo would run away with it each year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Great article. If I’m reading it correctly, it shows minimal monthly correlation but an uptick in December blocks. It mentions the two notable March blocks in 2010 and 2013. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.4673 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 15 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Interesting bit on a couple big blocks: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/22/the-pattern-that-lies-ahead-is-known-for-big-east-coast-snowstorms-including-the-d-c-area-sometimes/ I mentioned that in the first post. It's a great pattern for mid atlantic and northeast. The PNA ridge looks to strengthen at the end of the month, The pacific looks neutral, with a negative NAO and negative AO which usually leads to the best mid Atlantic snowstorms. All in all it should result in slightly below normal temps which should translate to mostly snow at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Great article. If I’m reading it correctly, it shows minimal monthly correlation but an uptick in December blocks. It mentions the two notable March blocks in 2010 and 2013. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.4673 NAO blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Wow, that's quite a bit of warming no doubt, which one would predict a -AO with that type of warming, interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Agree on all points except the below normal part, which I think it becomes an issue and reach's double digits but Upper single digits below the norm seems like a lock with all the features present, but they also have to come to fruition, and that's where the problem lies, lol! If it gets that cold then we watch systems pass by to our S&E, lol! I definitely wouldn't be laughing if that happened, but I can see it also. Too many good signals to ignore. The Pac is a Wild card because of the Alution Low, as it may want to form further East which would displace the trough a bit further West while we warm, but not torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 It’s a beautiful look for some big time snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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