wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Not a terrible look.. GGEM still finds the weakness and goes through wny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 Always trust the Euro. Also Wolf, always use Ensembles this far out, an operational run is completely useless beyond a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 Wolf you want to make a new thread, I think I'm bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 GEFS say cutter next Friday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 We will have to wait until January for any prolonged cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS say cutter next Friday too. Disagree. They aren't showing the sharp cutter either. Many are showing at least some threat of wintry precipitation in addition to some rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 6z Gfs nearly all frozen, let’s keep the trend going lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS say cutter next Friday too. Yep, I think we have a better chance of hitting 60 deg next Friday than seeing any frozen precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Geez Louise is the GFS ACTIVE in the long range! System after system....If that happens, I could see these systems progressively beating down the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 This was all well forecasted so I'm not surprised its happening. A couple warm days here and there, fortunately these bubbles of warm air are far and few between. Both the Cold air and pattern IMO are simply reloading for a 2.5 month Winter blitz. 02-03 Analog is KING, IMO, as there were more 50-60 degree days in December 02' than this yr, at least here in the Cuse, but once she realign's and we head back into a +PNA -EPO -NAO and -AO configuration, look out, but its not for a couple more weeks for any real sustained cold, IMO! Leading up to it, more cold and snow than AN temps! Here in Oswego County, I'll put money on a White Christmas, but I don't know bout after, lol! It's really not hard to get 1" of snow in our Lake belts zones but we'll see I guess but Id bet my house! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 We're all pretty much sitting AN for snow for so early in the season so all in all it's been a pretty good start to an exciting Winter here E-SE of the Lake and it should gradually get better and better. Peak season off Ontario is from Nov thru March , lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This was all well forecasted so I'm not surprised its happening. A couple warm days here and there, fortunately these bubbles of warm air are far and few between. Both the Cold air and pattern IMO are simply reloading for a 2.5 month Winter blitz. 02-03 Analog is KING, IMO, as there were more 50-60 degree days in December 02' than this yr, at least here in the Cuse, but once she realign's and we head back into a +PNA -EPO -NAO and -AO configuration, look out, but its not for a couple more weeks for any real sustained cold, IMO! Leading up to it, more cold and snow than AN temps! Here in Oswego County, I'll put money on a White Christmas, but I don't know bout after, lol! It's really not hard to get 1" of snow in our Lake belts zones but we'll see I guess but Id bet my house! Good discussion. "My backyard" is definitely below normal, with lack of any great les bands thus far. Good point about it not being too tough for 1 inch...at least there is SOME potential for white over the next couple weeks and not a shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Yeah, last year carol had 170" in december, so far this december 13.2" lol She did see 50" in November though.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 And it begins... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Disagree. They aren't showing the sharp cutter either. Many are showing at least some threat of wintry precipitation in addition to some rain. Do you have the euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This was all well forecasted so I'm not surprised its happening. A couple warm days here and there, fortunately these bubbles of warm air are far and few between. Both the Cold air and pattern IMO are simply reloading for a 2.5 month Winter blitz. 02-03 Analog is KING, IMO, as there were more 50-60 degree days in December 02' than this yr, at least here in the Cuse, but once she realign's and we head back into a +PNA -EPO -NAO and -AO configuration, look out, but its not for a couple more weeks for any real sustained cold, IMO! Leading up to it, more cold and snow than AN temps! Here in Oswego County, I'll put money on a White Christmas, but I don't know bout after, lol! It's really not hard to get 1" of snow in our Lake belts zones but we'll see I guess but Id bet my house! Agree, mid/late January is the timeframe to watch for. Before that there is nothing worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 45 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Do you have the euro ensembles? Unfortunately, nope...too frugal for that. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah, last year carol had 170" in december, so far this december 13.2" lol She did see 50" in November though.. Hmm, I have had better snow cover than her. But, again, probably because of lack of les. She sure is a committed lady. My friends here were discussing that the reason her totals are so high is because she is constantly measuring, compared to many others who have measured after some compaction has occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 4"-6" on the Rgem/Nam/3k Nam How much accumulates, who knows but i'll take my chances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 46 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Unfortunately, nope...too frugal for that. Lol Same I stalk twitter for them usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 4"-6" on the Rgem/Nam/3k Nam How much accumulates, who knows but i'll take my chances... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Fighting over scraps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 59 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hmm, I have had better snow cover than her. But, again, probably because of lack of les. She sure is a committed lady. My friends here were discussing that the reason her totals are so high is because she is constantly measuring, compared to many others who have measured after some compaction has occurred. It's really crazy how much you can increase totals with short measuring times, even more so when rhourly rates are high and/or low ratio snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, Vicarious said: It's really crazy how much you can increase totals with short measuring times, even more so when rhourly rates are high and/or low ratio snows Agreed. I try to follow the 6 hour guideline as close as possible, however with strong LES events it gets tough. Most of us have work, school, etc... so sometimes its tough to get a really accurate figure. https://www.weather.gov/gsp/snow Measure and record the greatest amount of snowfall that has accumulated on your snowboard (wooden deck or ground if board is not available) since the previous snowfall observation. This measurement should be taken minimally once-a-day but can be taken up to four times a day, (every 6 hours) and should reflect the greatest accumulation of new snow observed (in inches and tenths, for example, 3.9 inches) since the last snowfall observation. Snowfall amounts can be measured hourly or at any interval as long as the snow measurement board is NOT cleared more frequently than once every 6 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Models spitting out a little NW lake effect on the backside as well.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 26 minutes ago, Vicarious said: It's really crazy how much you can increase totals with short measuring times, even more so when rhourly rates are high and/or low ratio snows Part of the reason the New England crew scoffs at us and calls it fake snow. We could get a couple feet and record it...and then the next day be down to half of that as snow depth. It was the biggest thing I had to get used to when moving to a lake effect snow region. Snow piles up fast, but compacts just as quickly and has no lasting power in a thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 IMO, It's pretty much a done deal as far as White Christmas is concerned, for areas to the E-SE of the Lake! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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