wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Is the Euro showing the same extreme cutter for the end of the week? Seems like good consensus amongst the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Yup lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 Nice post. The bolded is exactly why I stopped posting long range forecasts this year. Now, the strat split last year was the real deal...it just came about two weeks too late. I had to pick up a water heater in snow squalls on what should have been a warm, spring day. Climatology was working against us by the time it hit. We had about six weeks of strong, high latitude blocking. It is no magic bullet as is it likely has messed up some decent winters...but it has helped many to be quite severe in one hemisphere or another. Personally, I think the upcoming pattern will be good, with or without it. I do think it will initiate strong blocking which could likely help us during what would be warm MJO phases later in January. I will also add that the eastern half of the forum area probably benefits more from a Greenland block more so than say from the Plateau westward. The block doesn't necessarily make things frigid(it could most certainly make it very cold), but it slows the jet and allows for more phasing opportunities along the coast. It makes timing much easier. Just as we saw with the recent system, a slp that taps the Atlantic is an eastern valley set-up. Blocking allows for that. Now, for the western 2/3 of the forum area...seems like you all need storms to cut over the eastern valley or up the spine of the Apps. La Nina's might even be a better pattern for those areas. You need a far eastern cutter basically OR you can depend on northwest flow stuff due to a PNA or EPO ridge. Here in NE TN, a block over Greenland gives us the best of both worlds which is why we understandably like them....northwest flow and coastal genesis stuff. Now, I am not "all-in" on the strat stuff right now. Strat splits are like a bull in a China shop if they happen. Sometimes, they are our friend and sometimes they are not. But what they are...is really cool. I suspect this winter they help, but that is simply a guess. Still watching for the LR ensembles to support the Weeklies run from Monday night. Every time I think we are getting to that great look...we lose it on the next run. Overall, the EPS didn't look terrible at 12z. Pumped a big western ridge as evidenced by 850 temps late in the run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 What a great write up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Nothing wrong with saving a little propane lol Shaping up to be a beautiful day.. I pretty much open windows once we hit 40 degrees, which is were i am at now.. Almost makes me want spring, Almost.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Man, these models! This pattern! Crap. This is tough to take. One of the longer periods of nothing that I can remember. I still don’t see much to get excited about. At least not for 10 days. Oh well. I gotta stop obsessing. The cake is baked- at least in Rochester, BUF and SYR. Enjoy the green Christmas! At least we had a white Thanksgiving! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 We still have time for that HP to be better positioned.. The system would be forced to undercut it or redevelop which several GEFS members are hinting at.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Not sure what you are looking at? Yes, this month has been BORING...but I think many of us in Upstate will have SOME snow on the ground for Christmas. Most models are showing some energy swinging through on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, wolfie09 said: We still have time for that HP to be better positioned.. The system would be forced to undercut it or redevelop which several GEFS members are hinting at.. Yeah, I noticed that it goes due north, then due east. We need something to block it from moving north too much. Icon model has the low much farther south than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Could be a recipe for ice if the HP is a little more west(slower to move out), locking in cold air at the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Not sure what you are looking at? Yes, this month has been BORING...but I think many of us in Upstate will have SOME snow on the ground for Christmas. Most models are showing some energy swinging through on Christmas Eve. I’m looking at ALL the models. The best ones show ROC receiving between 1-3” total by late on the 25th with very marginal temps in between. We’ve been green for 10 days now. Huge rain on the way. I see that anemic energy for the 24th, it’ll spit rain or snow showers. Is it enough? I don’t think so. Upslope folks look marginal but better as does Oswego County. The BUF disco has been the same for days- dull and dreary. I really wish I saw something- anything- but I don’t. The euro has been our best hope and I bet it starts coming back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 12z GFS definitely looks like a solid inch for Rochester on the back end of this first system, with another quarter inch or so on Sunday night and then a dusting on Christmas. I give Rochester a solid 75 percent chance of having marginal "white" Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 Need some PAC help, just flooding the US with warm air. Need to push that high up to near Alaska. The cold air now doesn't arrive for 2-3 more weeks. It has been pushed back almost a month already. The long range models in early Dec. had the last 10 days of Dec. Cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 The GEFS has all of NA in a torch into the first week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m looking at ALL the models. The best ones show ROC receiving between 1-3” total by late on the 25th with very marginal temps in between. We’ve been green for 10 days now. Huge rain on the way. I see that anemic energy for the 24th, it’ll spit rain or snow showers. Is it enough? I don’t think so. Upslope folks look marginal but better as does Oswego County. The BUF disco has been the same for days- dull and dreary. I really wish I saw something- anything- but I don’t. The euro has been our best hope and I bet it starts coming back to reality. Dave, I was looking at all of them too. No, nothing big...but there will be flakes flying with some white on the ground in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html It seems so much easier to get a crap pattern than a good one...especially this decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: It seems so much easier to get a crap pattern than a good one...especially this decade. I still have faith for Jan/Feb. Weak Ninos are usually our best climo. But this pattern is not behaving like one, I think it has something to do with the tropics? A few posters mentioned it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 U would think we live in boston with zero inches of snow lol Last time i checked 3 days ago, all ny state ciies were above avg in the snow department.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 We had an above average Nov and below avg Dec, shlt happens lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I still have some faith over the next 10 days or so.. Prettty inpressive for an ensemble mean.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 As expected the euro indv ensembles are all over the place for the 26/27th.. Anywhere from a straight cutter to a double barrel low and plenty that shred the crap out of it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 This will allow some areas, particularly the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region and possibly even areas East of Lake Ontario to reach into the upper 50s or even into the lower 60s, getting close to some record values Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: U would think we live in boston with zero inches of snow lol Last time i checked 3 days ago, all ny state ciies were above avg in the snow department.. Eh, people can get frustrated....December has not had much excitement...but that is the case pretty much all over the country right now. We fared better than many, but have joined the club of blah after these past several weeks. As several have said, this is primetime Lake effect season...and many now see December as wasted. I can tell you're an eternal optimist, wolfie. It balances out the over-negative. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: I’m looking at ALL the models. The best ones show ROC receiving between 1-3” total by late on the 25th with very marginal temps in between. We’ve been green for 10 days now. Huge rain on the way. I see that anemic energy for the 24th, it’ll spit rain or snow showers. Is it enough? I don’t think so. Upslope folks look marginal but better as does Oswego County. The BUF disco has been the same for days- dull and dreary. I really wish I saw something- anything- but I don’t. The euro has been our best hope and I bet it starts coming back to reality. ROC (at least eastern subs) could eek out a white Christmas: Given a flow setup for multi-band activity and a lack of long duration to the west-northwest flow regime, accumulations should be fairly light, however a few inches will be possible in the favored areas...with dusting/one half inch totals elsewhere. A short period of drying and even some clearing will follow Saturday night before an Alberta Clipper-type system approaches. Weak warm advection off the deck will allow for light snow to develop as it enters the picture during the afternoon on Sunday. Once again, even with weak lift and saturation, efficient snow crystal growth with the dentritic growth layer dipping into the lifting layer should allow for some accumulation of snow. This will be largely modulated by afternoon temperatures at least for a time, so the lower elevations and more urban areas would be the least likely to see accumulating snow, however as the system lingers into Sunday night and eventually northwest flow lake effect snow showers become more common in its wake, additional chances for accumulating snows exist for the snow belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Nice little clipper on the LR Nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 That’s beautiful Wolfie. I’m grateful for your optimism! Seriously. I’m gonna post the 12k NAM and then laugh for an hour. I’ll eat my hat if this comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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