wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Polar vortex may be on the horizon, scientists warn Climate researchers are sounding the alarm on a polar vortex that’s predicted to sweep through the U.S.’ east coast later this month and inflict one of the harshest winters in years, The Washington Post reported. Judah Cohen of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research told the paper his climate models indicate a vortex is likely to hit in late December or early January. A polar vortex disruption occurs when the stratosphere – where most weather occurs – suddenly warms, causing winds to change decrease or change direction. The vortex will then be displaced and split apart, spilling cold air into the mid-latitudes “Confidence is growing in a significant PolarVortex disruption in the coming weeks. This could be the single most important determinant of the weather this winter across the Northern Hemisphere,” Cohen wrote on his blog and Twitter feed last week. Last year a vortex that originated in Eurasia swept eastern North America, causing windstorms that lasted weeks. “We were still feeling the impacts into the end of April,” Cohen said Scientists say the later a polar vortex occurs, the less severe its effects will be in the winter months. “The longer it takes to happen, the bigger chance we have of a warmer winter,” Cohen said.. "All GEFS members now committing to a reversal of 60N 10mb winds #SSW between Dec 25-30 which is somewhat astonishing for a 9-14 day forecast. However not all other models on board yet so still reason to be cautious.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Gotta love a winter where everyone is in panic over a Polar Vortex. "It got cold. It's the Polar Vortex. It snowed. It's the Polar Vortex. What's a Polar Vortex? I don't know, but I hate it because....It feels like winter. " 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 I would say the GFS moved East again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Gfs is pretty much the Ukmet from yesterday 12z.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Colder air comes in quicker and kicks off the lake machine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Some real thin skinned individuals in this here thread, what a shame. What a difference a few yrs makes, and some wonder why ppl don't post in here anymore, lol.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 You know I love you Freak, now take your meds. We’ve had lots of posters this winter. It’s a safe space. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Nice forecast leading towards christmas.. Saturday Snow. High near 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night A chance of snow before 7pm, then a chance of snow showers after 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 For S&G CMC by christmas evening. Region wide clipper followed by some lake effect, sunday night/monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 The SSW event would be a nice pattern changer...as long as it doesn't squash the storm track too far south. Will be interesting to see how the long-range temp predictions respond (as most are above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Developing a 2nd low like the GFS Para.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2018 Author Share Posted December 18, 2018 There is a quite a bit of lag time between SSW and its eventually effects. Also, you can have a SSW and the cross polar flow hit Europe instead of the Northeast. Far too many variables with SSW. Not a good thing to rely upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 12z euro Snowfall map? Yesterday it looked good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2018 Author Share Posted December 18, 2018 17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Snowfall map? Yesterday it looked good Christmas miracle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Could go for a little more east, for here, obviously..But that trailing LP is kind of a new development.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 PARA GFS and UKie have been onto that secondary for a couple runs. Looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 12z Nam looked pretty interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Gfs also showed that 2nd lp.. Can the cold race in quick enough is the question.. Euro dropped us from +4c to -7c in about 6 hours..(850mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 too far east LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 84hr NAM is out of it's wheelhouse, but still nice to see LP to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Take it FWIW Wny.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Nam is farther west with the secondary, which i guess was to be expected given the other guidance..Decent wrap around moisture.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 There's the secondary I was talking about the other day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Man, sometimes you read these AFDs and get that feeling the met who writes it is intentionally being as negative as possible about snow chances and crushing the dreams of those hoping for a White Christmas. The AFD comes across like there will barely be any snowfall anywhere. Has the forecaster looked at the models? Most of BUF forecast areas looks to get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 0z GFS looks more like 1 LP Another disturbance right on its heels, firing up the lake.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Yep. Rain is most likely. It’s gonna take something big to change that consensus. Upslope areas might do ok on backend but I’ve learned to never count on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2018 Author Share Posted December 19, 2018 40 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Man, sometimes you read these AFDs and get that feeling the met who writes it is intentionally being as negative as possible about snow chances and crushing the dreams of those hoping for a White Christmas. The AFD comes across like there will barely be any snowfall anywhere. Has the forecaster looked at the models? Most of BUF forecast areas looks to get some snow. I think it's because only the Euro is showing anything of substance, the pattern does not look good at all until the new year. (At least) It's by far the best model though, so there is that. But I don't see anything to get excited about either. It's supposed to be peak LES season here off of Erie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Nws has snow showers in the forecast from late friday night until christmas morning..So it's not like they are expecting nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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