wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 i think We will find away to see a white christmas.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 I think the plow guys are getting restless here in Redfield. Just heard them go by. Other than some light snow this afternoon, we haven't had anything new since they plowed this morning. They are ready for some fun action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: I think the plow guys are getting restless here in Redfield. Just heard them go by. Other than some light snow this afternoon, we haven't had anything new since they plowed this morning. They are ready for some fun action! i know i have been here in buffalo 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 7 hours ago, wolfie09 said: i think We will find away to see a white christmas.. I think so too, even though we are in what is becoming our traditional mid December till New Years mild period. The Lakes will provide! Won't be deep snowcover but most of us won't be totally green by Xmas day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 I will be visiting family in PA, so I am thinking green Christmas for me...except possibly when I visit the ones on the Allegheny Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 I will be absolutely (and pleasantly) amazed if Rochester has a white Christmas. Goodluck everyone! Upslope folks look good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Nam still doing some “funky” things but I’ll take it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2018 Author Share Posted December 19, 2018 Would be quite surprised if anyone but highest elevations in upslope areas and the tug have white Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 48 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Would be quite surprised if anyone but highest elevations in upslope areas and the tug have white Christmas. Agree. Temps look to jump above freezing both Sunday and Monday, so any little accumulation lower elevations get after the deluge will likely sublimate to green. Plus we'll be fighting an increasing sun angle now that days will be getting longer (full sarcasm intended there!). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 12z GFS looks better with LP placement (850 freezing line moving east quickly). Canadian as well. This may have a nice potential for a couple inches on the back-end. Curious to see the Euro. 00z Sat: 06z Sat: 12z Sat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2018 Author Share Posted December 19, 2018 16 minutes ago, vortmax said: 12z GFS looks better with LP placement (850 freezing line moving east quickly). Canadian as well. This may have a nice potential for a couple inches on the back-end. Curious to see the Euro. 00z Sat: 06z Sat: 12z Sat: Where's the cold air coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Where's the cold air coming from? The North. Marginal, but may be enough to get that grass covered. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 It’s a tricky, tricky set up. For any hope you need a few things to come together: an invigorated secondary, a track up ENY, self generated cold with enhanced precip rates and elevation. Even if all of the above occur they’ll likely happen at a local level. Upslope regions. Normal suspects. With all of that (negative sh..) said, I have seen this type of situation really hammer the Genesee Valley region. We won’t know until 36 hrs out. Inside straight is what we need at the lower elevations. Higher ones need a good pair. Nobody here likes a white Christmas more than me- gauntlet thrown into the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 0z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 12z Canadianthis is a good trend. It’s a good model. The hires is also showing a secondary RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 12z Canadianthis is a good trend. It’s a good model. The hires is also showing a secondary RGEM Another 50-100 eastward shift may turn things in our favor. Here's to hoping for a Christmas miracle! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Euro has a general 2”-4” back end snow, according to the clown maps.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Thanks Wolfie! Id take it and run. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Will be interesting to see what BUF says in the AFD. --- Just read...pretty much lower elevations will be lucky to squeak out an inch. Man, if we just had some colder air, this next system would've been huuuge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 last frame of the 3k nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Kbuf Surface low pressure will continue to track off to the northeast into Quebec Friday night. Cold air advection behind this system cold front will gradually transition precipitation over from rain to snow showers. However, this change over will be a slow process from west to east as the 850 thermal boundary moves eastward and then becomes cold enough behind the front to support snow. Even with the change over accumulations at this point look meager with the main system and its deformation zone already for the most departed our region. With continued strong cold air advection behind this system overnight, 850T are expected to fall between -6C to -9C by early Saturday morning. There will be some minor accumulating snow behind the cold front. Although, with the loss of deep synoptic moisture and with the system pulling away lake response will be limited off both lake Erie and Ontario. Snowfall amounts at this point, having mentioned the limiting factors, will likely only support amounts in the range of 1 to 3 inches at best. Possibly a few isolated higher amounts in some favored upslope-higher terrain locations. Elsewhere, lower elevation can expect amounts of an inch or less of accumulation. Saturday, the system continues to further pull further away from the area off into the Canadian Maritimes. There will be continued scattered snow showers especially east and southeast of both lakes with brisk and chilly northwesterly flow across the CWA. Saturday evening, weak ridging will build in aloft, with drier air continuing to filter into the Lower Great Lakes, expect any residual snow showers to diminish across the region. With ridging building overhead, a brief period of relatively quiet and dry conditions can be expected Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Sunday night and Monday the medium range guidance remains in general agreement on a modest clipper system traversing our region from west to east...while providing us a general chance for some snow showers. With the clipper and its parent upper level trough also helping to re-introduce some colder air aloft...a general westerly flow may also lead to some areas of lake enhanced snows over areas east of the lakes. In the wake of this system...another surface ridge and attendant drier air then looks to build across our region Christmas Eve...which should translate into diminishing lake effect snow showers east and southeast of the lakes...and mainly dry weather elsewhere. After that...the various guidance packages diverge rather radically with respect to the timing and track of the next system Tuesday and Wednesday...with rather poor model-to-model and run-to-run consistency noted over the last 24 hours. On the one extreme is the ECMWF which is considerably faster and much further south...which would favor below normal temperatures along with chances of snow showers returning by as early as Christmas Day...while on the other is the GFS which is slower and much further north... which would allow for a dry Christmas Day followed by a return of well above average temperatures by the end of the period. Given these large differences and resultant very low forecast confidence...for now have just maintained general slight chance to low chance PoPs throughout the last couple days of this period...along with temperatures averaging out near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That map would be inline with their discussion. Hoping the cold air moves in before the moisture leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 EPS % of greater then 1" snow depth christmas morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 It's a little comical, if you look at the top image u can see it go from 99% to 60% right over pulaski lol I'm starting to think they are the rip off zone of oswego county lol Especially when it comes to p-type.. The funny thing is the majority of folks in fulton think it snows way more in pulaski, not sure that is the case.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Yes please.. Would guarntee a white christmas .. Looks like a general west-west northwesterly flow, pops raised to 60%.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2018 Author Share Posted December 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The worst, cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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