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Tyler Penland

2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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Just now, ncjoaquin said:

Well, it feels like we have been following this for a month. But, we could be seeing some flakes in 24 hours. 

No doubt Jason. Hoping to hone in on the battle lines today. It already has been a fun system to track. Hoping for full fluff here but the pingers will be loud and proud at some point...  

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4 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

FBF2A1F2-6B38-4D6C-A8FF-CBB23FEBC1EE.png

 

1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said:

That meets the old E/E money in the bank.

It really doesn't get much better than this! I have no dog in this fight so to speak & I get really excited looking at these 2 side X side!!!

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Again to piggy back on what HT has been say for the past several days. Here is MOB's short term for our area. This is the fire hose he has been talking about. In this type of set up the QPF transports up to your region.

 

.SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/...Widespread rainfall
spreads from west to east across the region Saturday through
Saturday night as a surface low pressure system moves eastward
along the coast from LA into the Western FL panhandle.

Deep layer moisture, with precipitable water values consistently
advertised by the GFS to climb to around two inches, coupled with
large scale forcing for ascent should lead to periods of heavy
rainfall. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated totals as high as 6 inches remain possible. Current
trends indicate that the heaviest rainfall will fall over
Southeast Mississippi during the late morning hours tapering off
during the early evening hours, Alabama counties West of the I-65
corridor during the afternoon through early evening and Western
Florida Panhandle counties and Alabama counties East of the I-65
corridor mid to late afternoon into the late evening hours.

Concerns for potential flooding remain especially over the area
southeast of a Mobile to Andalusia line due to last weeks heavy
rains last week keeping the soils in this area relatively moist.
Heavy rain fall occurring within short period of time is possible
which could create areas of flash flooding. Furthermore,
widespread rainfalls of 4 inches could lead to minor and possibly
moderate river flooding in this area. A Flash Flood Watch may
be issued for this area in the next 12 hours. Based on the
current forecast track of the surface low, a marginal severe
threat will exist along the coast just ahead of the surface low
in the warm sector. The primary risks being brief tornadoes and
damaging straight line winds Saturday and Saturday night.

A high risk of rip currents will exist along area Gulf beaches
from Friday night through Sunday night. High surf, and minor
coastal flooding will also be possible Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night.

As the region remains under the base of the upper level trough, a
few sprinkles and a lingering chance of some light rain will
continue Sunday through Sunday evening/night time frame. /08
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Been awhile but can't help but check in from Michigan to say congrats on the pending big storm! :)  I am jealous.  Wow-for sure some of the highest elevations are going to get nailed.  3 feet at Mt. Mitchell with hurricane force winds? Hmmm.  Might happen. We shall see.  Looking forward to some great pics from you guys!  

 

 

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Things are definately coming into better focus this morning  and this is looking like the storm we all hoped for before all of the confusion yesterday evening.

Curious though, on GSP's latest snow map they have most of Haywood County in the 10+ inch range. Yet right now, we are under a  Winter Storm Watch with the discussion calling for 1-8 inches. In all my years of experiencing these type of storm set ups here, the Balsams will get hammered. Won't be surprised to see some 20+ reports  around here by the time this is all said and done. 

Enjoy the ride y'all!

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25 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Not that I'm actually concerned about this...but can I get some of that NW trend action? Lol

Right there with you. I'm not liking how the gfs and now 6z euro went significantly south 

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To your point Ashe, I guess these are a few things we need to keep an eye on. I've seen all of these happen and sometimes all at the same time. From Ray.....

Caveats....
Factors that would limit snow totals: 1) latest computer guidance limits precipitation on the northern edge of the system, 2) relatively warm temperatures aloft have me nervous (mixing with sleet or freezing rain would greatly limit totals). 3) "Convective robbing" where thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast limit the transport of moisture northward can often be a factor in a system like this. 
 

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Yeah I'm headed up to Beech on Saturday.  I'm not "worried" but I think there is a possibility the juicy part of the storm just doesn't make it up to that corner of the state.  At least right now it doesn't look like mixing will be an issue.  Plenty of time to hone in.  Still pumped.    

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Wish I could make it down to dads house in Marion for this one.. Wife is graduating grad school Saturday so that's a no go unless I go down afterwards and miss half of next week of work being snowed in lol. My area is looking worse and worse and it is possible we only get fringed with a few inches. 

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To your point Ashe, I guess these are a few things we need to keep an eye on. I've seen all of these happen and sometimes all at the same time. From Ray.....
Caveats....
Factors that would limit snow totals: 1) latest computer guidance limits precipitation on the northern edge of the system, 2) relatively warm temperatures aloft have me nervous (mixing with sleet or freezing rain would greatly limit totals). 3) "Convective robbing" where thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast limit the transport of moisture northward can often be a factor in a system like this. 
 
Models swing and miss on northern edge precip a lot. Obviously the SW mountains will be in a better spot but I'm guessing we do just fine.

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1 hour ago, cold air aloft said:

Things are definately coming into better focus this morning  and this is looking like the storm we all hoped for before all of the confusion yesterday evening.

Curious though, on GSP's latest snow map they have most of Haywood County in the 10+ inch range. Yet right now, we are under a  Winter Storm Watch with the discussion calling for 1-8 inches. In all my years of experiencing these type of storm set ups here, the Balsams will get hammered. Won't be surprised to see some 20+ reports  around here by the time this is all said and done. 

Enjoy the ride y'all!

I wouldn't worry about that at all. When they issue a WSW they will adjust that number. But really we all know probably what is going to happen.

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Just now, HurricaneTracker said:

NAM is HUGE!!!!  ALL SNOW SOUNDINGS for just about the entire event.  Closing in on 20-25" across Henderson, Transylvania, Buncombe, and McDowell counties.

Yeah, I'm pretty speechless. This is starting to look like the *once mentioned* "once in a generational event"... lol 

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2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

NAM is HUGE!!!!  ALL SNOW SOUNDINGS for just about the entire event.  Closing in on 20-25" across Henderson, Transylvania, Buncombe, and McDowell counties.

I'm not sure I have enough milk sandwich supplies for this. Insane numbers!

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