wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Anyone looked at the Euro for later next week, heavy rain, possible t storms with a strong upper low and then wraparound snow for mtns.. could be flooding issues in areas.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 SREF Plumes mean for KAVL is up to 11.7 - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Mean Control run . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 22 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: SREF Plumes mean for KAVL is up to 11.7 - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ This is a big deal given the horrid 12Z NAM run we saw. Just verifies to me that the 12Z run was junk. EDIT: also suggests the NAM will correct itself at 18Z 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: This is a big deal given the horrid 12Z NAM run we saw. Just verifies to me that the 12Z run was junk. EDIT: also suggests the NAM will correct itself at 18Z It's looking like that already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 This can't be right... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Also, WSW up for Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GSP loves GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: This is a big deal given the horrid 12Z NAM run we saw. Just verifies to me that the 12Z run was junk. EDIT: also suggests the NAM will correct itself at 18Z As it appears, the 18z is in fact correcting itself. Right on the money again HT! 1 minute ago, BretWheatley said: This can't be right... ? Are they drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boonelight Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, BretWheatley said: Also, WSW up for Boone. Yep, just saw that and was about to post. Looks like Blacksburg is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Boonelight said: Yep, just saw that and was about to post. Looks like Blacksburg is on board. INWS just posted at 3:32 https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=27994705 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 That 'Expected' map from GSP isn't right. 18z NAM already has totals near 11 inches at hour 66.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Somebody already hitting the eggnog in Greer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: That 'Expected' map from GSP isn't right. 18z NAM already has totals near 11 inches at hour 66.... Their forecast, that appears to be current, goes along with that also. I mean, even the worst guidance, is better than 4 inches. .... and if that is the way they feel, then don't do an expected map showing 11 inches and bail after a couple weaker model runs. Don't get me wrong, they are the experts and I love them, but what the hell? Who knows, they could be right, but super weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: That 'Expected' map from GSP isn't right. 18z NAM already has totals near 11 inches at hour 66.... Now, near 17 inches.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Yeah, the 18z NAM definitely corrected. We're back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Somebody already hitting the eggnog in Greer. I can't get over it. To me it also seems reckless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 They obviously took A LOT of stock in the 12Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 They should have waited until the 18z NAM ran...... .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 250 PM Thu: Still high confidence on the occurrence of a winter storm developing late Saturday into early Sunday across the region. Trends in the models unfortunately do not lend much additional confidence to precip types or transitions. Cold-air damming still is a key component of the event. The models suggest the CAD will be a bit stronger at the onset of precip, which looks most likely Saturday afternoon as a stationary front sets up between the incoming continental sfc high and the developing coastal low. The general track of the low is still expected to be across the Coastal Plain to our south, so the timing of the event has changed little. One appreciable difference with this fcst package is lower overall QPF. Unfortunately for the sake of forecasting p-type distribution/transitions, models continue to show midlevel temps flirting with 0C for much of the event. Temps are expected to remain above freezing for most of the area Saturday afternoon, though the trend has been colder in latest guidance. A deep but relatively cool warm layer aloft implies a mix of precip types is possible late Saturday; increasing precip should strengthen the wedge through diabatic cooling and profiles will support all snow over an increasing portion of WNC through Sunday morning. Sfc temps Sunday are especially tricky given guidance split across the freezing mark. Have biased the fcst in favor of a GFS-based blend that did well in last month`s wintry wedge event. Still, where temps are above freezing sleet is expected to be the main p-type. The NAM is substantially warmer with temps aloft than any of the global models we have at our disposal. For now the NAM profiles are being discounted and not used in the fcst process, not only due to the consensus in the other guidance, but to help maintain better forecast continuity--i.e. not to shift too much of the accumulation from the snow to ice category. But this is a trend that we will have to monitor in subsequent fcst shifts. We continue to expect 8-12" of snow over the climatologically coldest part of the CWA during CAD, i.e., the east-facing Blue Ridge Escarpment and area extending east along I-40. "Snow" totals have declined by a few inches over the northern GA/SC zones and in the more western NC mtns, as more of the QPF is now expected to fall as sleet. Ice accums remain at least advisory criteria along the fringe of the sleet area. Confidence is already high enough to warrant a Winter Storm Watch for all of our NC zones; one is being hoisted with this package. This is at least 12 hours earlier than we would normally issue a watch. We thus have decided to leave out all the GA/SC zones for now and perhaps try to better define the p-type transition zone. The expected sleet/ice amounts in these zones will be more sensitive to forecast QPF and therefore a downward trend could keep some areas out of warning crtieria altogether, thus not warranting a watch there. Stay tuned. WAA continues, albeit more weakly, as the sfc low pushes out to sea Sunday night. At that time we will begin a slow transition from the CAD/Miller-A forcing to that supplied by a shortwave/deformation zone transitioning over the area. PoPs decline very slowly thru Monday as a result. With the WAA, whereas we might normally expect a transition to all snow across the area, we will continue to see mixed p-types toward the south and east, wherever sfc temps remain near or below freezing. Moisture becomes more shallow during this time, too, putting the possibility of additional snow/sleet in question as ice nuclei become scarce. Impacts from the combination of what is expected to be a very wet snow, combined with icing in some areas, are not looking any less significant than what the previous shift expected, even though total amounts may have come down with this package. Very windy conditions are expected Saturday night and most of Sunday, which makes falling trees/powerlines likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I can't get over it. To me it also seems reckless. They basically acted the same way half the main forum did and jumped the cliff after one NAM/GFS run lol. So...I want to know what happens now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 It looks like they are expecting all the early precipitation fall as either rain or sleet in the Asheville area, thus drastically cutting totals. And they say they didn't even use the NAM for this forecast, so this must be based off GFS and Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The one thing to notice is that's two nam runs in a row that get sleet into the mountains for a period that really hasn't shown up before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boonelight Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: The one thing to notice is that's two nam runs in a row that get sleet into the mountains for a period that really hasn't shown up before. Is that for the southern mountains or is it for the Boone area as well? Haven’t heard anyone mention sleet in Boone so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 19 minutes ago, buncombe said: It looks like they are expecting all the early precipitation fall as either rain or sleet in the Asheville area, thus drastically cutting totals. And they say they didn't even use the NAM for this forecast, so this must be based off GFS and Euro? Even if that is correct, this part of the forecast makes no sense to me. Sunday - Snow. Additional light snow accumulation Isn't that when the heaviest precip is falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, buncombe said: It looks like they are expecting all the early precipitation fall as either rain or sleet in the Asheville area, thus drastically cutting totals. And they say they didn't even use the NAM for this forecast, so this must be based off GFS and Euro? It's the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Even the 3km NAM has almost more at hour 60 than that map. Oh well. Onto the next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, buncombe said: It looks like they are expecting all the early precipitation fall as either rain or sleet in the Asheville area, thus drastically cutting totals. And they say they didn't even use the NAM for this forecast, so this must be based off GFS and Euro? They based it off of the lower QPF values from the GFS. Didn't even look at or mention the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Boonelight said: Is that for the southern mountains or is it for the Boone area as well? Haven’t heard anyone mention sleet in Boone so far. Yea, even up into Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, HurricaneTracker said: They based it off of the lower QPF values from the GFS. Didn't even look at or mention the Euro. Did the Euro really bust *that* hard on that last "event" ? I wasn't as connected to that possibility as this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 22 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: This can't be right... ? Historic? Damn Jim Cantore affect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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