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Tyler Penland

2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said:

NAM much wetter.

And substantially colder. Now aligns perfectly with Euro, FV3, and CMC. 

What worries me greatly is 55 knot winds at 850mb Sunday morning in the mountains. Exceptionally dangerous situation may be unfolding!

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2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

And substantially colder. Now aligns perfectly with Euro, FV3, and CMC. 

What worries me greatly is 55 knot winds at 850mb Sunday morning in the mountains. Exceptionally dangerous situation may be unfolding!

Dangerous is our middle name in the mountains.  Bring it all at once.

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34 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I'm back gang! Let's do this!

FB_IMG_1544148050400.jpg

Ok, so you came back to where you belong. Congrats?:rolleyes:  At least now I have somebody to explain this crap to me. Welcome home Brother.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

Its warmer out this way than the fvs and euro.

This is probably correct. Intense warm nose by deep southerly fetch of moisture riding north on 50kt LLJ and you guys are almost always tucked away from the wedge. 

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2 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

 

Ok, so you came back to where you belong. Congrats?:rolleyes:  At least now I have somebody to explain this crap to me. Welcome home Brother.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes this is where I belong for sure! Thank you Joe!

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36 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

This is probably correct. Intense warm nose by deep southerly fetch of moisture riding north on 50kt LLJ and you guys are almost always tucked away from the wedge. 

Yeah, cad doesn't usually work it's way west of the balsams or highlands.

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5 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

WTH is GSP doing?

image.png.f58a91cc9caf3ca1ac7916e37e93479b.png

I love GSP but they are taking a brutal beating on twitter for this map. I'm willing to bet this one may go into the closet, never to be seen again!

 

On a more serious note I have concerns that some places (eastern facing & above 3500') may be close to blizzard conditions during the event at times. I really feel like you will see some different maps, forecasts overnight & especially tomorrow from the crew in Greer if things hold the way they are.

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20 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

I've been trying really hard to go to sleep, 0z runs prevented that. Wow.

This season is turning into 2009-2010 . Gonna be wore out from tracking so much this season. Have yall stopped and thought its only 1st week of Dec and look how much has Already happened up there.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
420 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

.Cold high pressure along the East Coast will interact with a
moist low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico
Saturday night into Sunday. Moderate to heavy precipitation will
fall as a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the
region. Accumulations are expected to be greatest in western
North Carolina.

NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-071730-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0005.181208T1800Z-181210T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0006.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss,
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine,
Poplar, Asheville, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River,
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah,
Patterson, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort,
and Saluda
420 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 10 to 16 inches and ice accumulations of
around one tenth of an inch expected.


* WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina, including the upper
French Broad Valley to the Northern Mountains and Northern
Foothills.


* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
impossible. Road conditions could deteriorate as early as
Saturday evening, with highway travel continuing to be impacted
through early next week. Visibility may drop to less than a
half mile during periods of heavy snow. Widespread, prolonged
power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

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Nice!....giddy up!!!

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday: Confidence is high enough on significant
snow/wintry precip in the heart of the expected cold air damming,
that after collaboration with WFO RNK, portions of the watch have
been upgraded to a winter storm warning. The rest of the watch will
be left as is, as there is still some time to fine tune details.
Overall, no big surprises in the 00z guidance. If anything, they`ve
trended a little wetter. Adequate QPF for winter storm warning
criteria accums is not an issue. The two biggest concerns are the
evolution of a warm nose above the CAD, and the sfc-based warm layer
around the periphery of the wedge. These will determine the p-type
thru the event. I opted to take a 50/50 blend of the GFS/NAM
profiles. The NAM has the much stronger warm nose, bringing it even
into the central NC mountains for a time on Sunday.

So precip should start expanding north and east across the forecast
area during the day on Saturday. Thermal profiles suggest most of
the precip will start out as rain, except in the central and
northern mountains and adjacent foothills in NC. By early Saturday
evening, CAD should be really strengthening across the Piedmont, as
precip rates will be at their highest and the ~1036 mb parent high
reaches PA. The wedge looks to advect enough cold/dry air to
wet-bulb temps down into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the entire
Piedmont by daybreak Sunday. This will be about the time the warm
nose will punch in from the east, resulting in a wintry mix of
rain/sleet/freezing rain. Meanwhile, most of the I-40 corridor looks
to remain all snow. The sfc low will track from the FL panhandle
east to off the Georgia coast by Sunday aftn. The NAM has a dry air
punching in from the southwest, which could cut off ice nuclei
activation and turn snow/sleet to freezing rain/drizzle. However,
the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all seem to keep deeper moisture within a
developing deformation zone thru Sunday night. For now, I keep ice
nuclei active thru the event. This allows snow totals to continue to
pile up.

Finally, Sunday night thru Monday, as the sfc low deepens off the
Carolina coast, cold air spills in behind the circulation and should
erode the warm nose aloft. Thermal profiles turn into ra/sn, with
some snow possible across even in the southern Upstate. However,
precip rates should be very light by this point. Temps will hover
mainly in the 28-35 deg range Sunday thru Sunday night, then rebound
slightly on the back side of the system on Monday to the upper 30s
to lower 40s.

We have expanded the watch to include the GA and SC mountains, along
with a tier of zones from Pickens to York County in SC, where
climatologically in CAD events should get higher wintry accums.
While the rest of the GA and SC Piedmont is still too low confidence
for a watch, but may need an advisory once the event is within 24
hours. Given the upward trend in QPF. Impacts from the combination
of what is expected to be a very wet snow, and icing in some areas,
look to be significant. Very windy conditions are expected Saturday
night and most of Sunday, which makes falling trees and power lines
likely.

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14 hours ago, BretWheatley said:

This can't be right... ?

C1925527-E3A9-4235-82B1-F0F8B0463078.thumb.png.03c84117758e10d8aa7db4cc6fd9ac3a.png

 

12 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

Wanted to say a couple things about GSP. 1st off you have different Mets writing AFD’s and they have different perspectives. While they collaborate the lead forecaster has the most input. 2nd. This is essentially their 1st call map and will change at least 4 more times before the storm arrives. 3rd they are some of the best in the business but are human and prone to error (anyone remember the farmer reference in the AFD from the Christmas 2010 storm). I would much rather have them bust calling for less and getting more than vice versa. Take a breath and let’s see where it goes.


.

 

1 hour ago, BretWheatley said:

And.... we’re back! 

370DEDEC-819B-415F-83F5-2A111D9695D2.png

726A4889-797F-496A-996B-379BFA62AA26.png

 

I did want to post this and just say remeber to take a deep breath when things don't go your way & there's still time for change. Things may change again but the chase is a huge part of the fun. Try to make sure your highs aren't to high & your lows aren't to low.

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