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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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38 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said:

I'll tell you, remember hurricane mathew a few years back? I was living in wilminton at the time, only a cat 1 (first hurricane I'd experienced), but when you see long leaf pines bending in ways they shouldnt over someones house, knowing they could snap at any moment will scare the bajeebus outta you. And the noise of it all I'll never forget... Then driving back through lumberton the amount of tree damage was surprising for how far in land they were. Straight line winds can maximize gust potential very quickly.

Then you don't remember the "Super storm of "93"? OMG that wasn't even a cane,, 80's F to snow with-in 10 miles! THAT was a Storm My friend! 

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Random thoughts on Florence 5+ days to potential LF:

1) With a few notable exceptions, these hurricanes ALWAYS seem to trend towards a more northward landfall as the storm gets closer to shore. Today the NC/SC border is in the bullseye, but tomorrow morning it might be Wilmington. And then Cape Lookout. And then Hatteras...

2) NHC has a possible cat 4 upon landfall, which is quite a rare event in the Carolinas (only Hazel and Hugo have done this I believe). Perhaps something will come up as it gets closer that could hinder development that we can't see at the moment? Like perhaps a nicely time ERC, or unexpected strong sheer coming up before LF that isn't modeled right now?

3) is this loop idea something we should actually be considering as possible? I recall some models flirted with this idea for Matthew, but we know that didn't happen. Both Diana and Dennis went stationary at one point and did loops, but those are the only two I know of.

4) Dat GFS run had some biblical qpf totals. I don't want to even consider that scenario being a possibility.

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6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

getting real....NHC plots landfall Cat 4 130 mph ILM......still 5 days out also why does it gotta be nighttime.......

025337_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.c92874c155ee063808fe1cec3e7977f9.png

 

Admittedly, that's a pretty ominous forecast.

The only silver lining I can think of is that it's 5 days out instead of 2...

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One thing that should be stressed is this is not your typical Cat 1-2 NC cane threat and should be taken with extreme seriousness...especially anywhere that will be along or east of this things eventual track....

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7 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

 

Admittedly, that's a pretty ominous forecast.

The only silver lining I can think of is that it's 5 days out instead of 2...

yeah plenty of time to see this miss to the east......the crappy part is that it probably wont be evident its gonna miss until late in the timeline.....this isnt your typical NC cane hit setup or approach angle though and usually when these type of setup occur they tend to be less wishy washy and come on in....Isabel/Fran etc....both were pretty locked in by 4-5 days out. We knew they were coming and chances of landfall where high. 

 

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Keep hoping this turns and goes out to sea, or it never gets to a big hurricane. But this looks really bad for NC.

My concern is if this hits cat 4 people aren't going to know what to expect.

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Hopefully this thing goes out to sea. I need some advice but my problems are not even close to what Carolina residents have to deal with, but I am still in need of help.

 

I'm flying into CHS from Philly Wednesday morning to visit my brother, and am supposed to go back Saturday morning. I only go down once a year really and we're supposed to go to an indoor concert in Charleston Friday. Seems like that will get cancelled and I'll get stuck at the airport Saturday. Perhaps I just shouldn't go? I have no experience with this kind of thing at all, and this is only my second time flying.

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Just now, hurricane1091 said:

Hopefully this thing goes out to sea. I need some advice but my problems are not even close to what Carolina residents have to deal with, but I am still in need of help.

 

I'm flying into CHS from Philly Wednesday morning to visit my brother, and am supposed to go back Saturday morning. I only go down once a year really and we're supposed to go to an indoor concert in Charleston Friday. Seems like that will get cancelled and I'll get stuck at the airport Saturday. Perhaps I just shouldn't go? I have no experience with this kind of thing at all, and this is only my second time flying.

Well on the track they are currently calling for Charleston would be totally fine, even more so by Saturday....Philly should be ok as well as the storm will be over NC/VA then if it does indeed come ashore....

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4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

yeah plenty of time to see this miss to the east......the crappy part is that it probably wont be evident its gonna miss until late in the timeline.....this isnt your typical NC cane hit setup or approach angle though and usually when these type of setup occur they tend to be less wishy washy and come on in....Isabel/Fran etc....both were pretty locked in by 4-5 days out. We knew they were coming and chances of landfall where high. 

 

I hear you. It's definitely not a typical approach angle, and that has me a bit more concerned than usual.

I'm starting to get real "Fran" vibe when considering the possible impact from this. But then again--that was only 115 at LF. Sheesh. We can't rule out a Hugo intensity at LF at the moment.

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Still plenty of time for it to shift either way but what’s concerning to me is this isn’t a normal poleward moving storm.  I guess the best hope is for that high to push out faster.

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The most recent HWRF hurricane model suggests #Florence rapidly intensifies to a major hurricane -- and continues to Category 5 on Tuesday. The track in this model closely matches the official NHC forecast. The maximum intensity could be between Category 3 and 5 along the track

 

 
 
 
8:25 PM - 8 Sep 2018

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Got, what may be, one last beach day in today (I'm in ILM...just north of Snows Cut).  Gotta say, I was really surprised just how warm the ocean is.  85 degrees.  It was almost uncomfortably warm.

I'll decide on Monday what we're going to do.  The thrill-seeker in me wants to experience it (I've been through a few cat 1 and 2's but nothing like what this may become)...but with a family...its certainly not worth risking life...mine or my family.

I'm sure hoping Wilmington doesn't take this one on the chin.

 

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2 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

I hear you. It's definitely not a typical approach angle, and that has me a bit more concerned than usual.

I'm starting to get real "Fran" vibe when considering the possible impact from this. But then again--that was only 115 at LF. Sheesh. We can't rule out a Hugo intensity at LF at the moment.

That's the thing usually the storms coming at us under a strong ridge off NE ( which is admittedly only a few storms) all came on in and the models had good agreement on that 3-5 days out... Flo could still slow and turn up the coast just offshore, how many times have we seen that happen....its dozens. However when you look at the NHC forecast and models they all agree at least Mon-Thur the storm is hauling ass and strong as hell.....if its gonna slow and miss the models are not seeing it yet and I mean how wrong are they going to be with large scale features in this range? I would feel better about it shifting OTS if there was a larger spread in the models ens but if anything the clustering is getting tighter. 

 

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Euro is a nightmare for eastern and central nc. Generational type storm.  Would devastate our area with wind, surge, and historic flooding.

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People need to remember that she should be a big cat 4 for a few days before landfall. So even if she weakens down to high end 3 at landfall she will still be carrying a big surge especially if she has a big wind field. Lookout down to landfall would see a tremendous surge. Neuse river and the pamlico will be affected as wel.

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Gfs back to a landfall and less of a stall. Moves it to around Washington,NC and then pulls it north into Virginia. Still a long storm but not as much rain deep inland.

So we have a 5 day landfall consensus between myrtle beach and hatters which is both unnerving and remarkable. Plenty of time to change though once the full data gets in the modeling.

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32 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Gfs back to a landfall and less of a stall. Moves it to around Washington,NC and then pulls it north into Virginia. Still a long storm but not as much rain deep inland.

So we have a 5 day landfall consensus between myrtle beach and hatters which is both unnerving and remarkable. Plenty of time to change though once the full data gets in the modeling.

CMC shows landfall between CHS and MYR but point taken as it is a southern outlier, good consensus for a landfall from C/E SC coast to Hatteras. 

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06Z FV3 is worst case landfall location for the south beaches IMO.....it basically comes in Onslow Bay right into Jacksonville, this puts Emerald Isle in the north eyewall and Topsail down to Kure in the south eyewall....basically gives eyewall/inner core conditions to every beach from Cape Lookout to Cape Fear then moves inland to around Wilson maybe putting RDU in the western side if the center...while pounding all of NC east of 95.

fv3p_mslp_wind_eus_20.thumb.png.97280e94ab1961f19631d57ca52b1dd7.png

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"Very windy" has been added to the local NWS forecast for Fri/Sat. Haven't seen that in a while.

Friday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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Not trying to be overly dramatic, but does anyone know if the city of Raleigh or NC has provided sandbags in the past? Live in a relatively low lying area so trying to create a plan just in case. 

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4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I’m shocked at the EPS. Virtually every member is SW of the Euro run with a concentration on Charleston. 

Good comparison of the 12z vs 0z ensemble runs 

 

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