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Hurricane Florence

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14 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Just to add, I believe for 2018 the TVCN is equally weighted GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF and HMON.

The thing is this stall and hard west turn is one of those things where the models really struggle....Flo is gonna come charging up from the SE and its gonna take a heck of a ridge to stop and turn her....where, when and even if the stall/turn happens is something they will struggle with which sucks...if its 6-10 hrs later than currently forecast it will have huge implications...its never easy here in NC when it comes to these damn storms....why cant the models get a solution and just stick with it. 

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My friend just moved to Robersonville a few years ago. She just bought a generator yesterday.

I told her to evacuate but she is going to stay put.

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17 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Just to add, I believe for 2018 the TVCN is equally weighted GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF and HMON. (I actually can't find where I saw that but I think that's what I remember reading)

This says the TVCN is a combination of: AVNI (GFS), EMXI (ECMWF, or Euro), HWFI (HWRF), CTCI (NRL COAMPS-TC w/GFS initial boundary conditions), and EGRI (UKMet)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

My friend just moved to Robersonville a few years ago. She just bought a generator yesterday.

I told her to evacuate but she is going to stay put.

Meh she will be fine thats not that far from me....as long as she has no trees near the house.....if it does stall and turn west she might not even get winds to hurricane force in gust....if it doesnt stall though it will be rough lol....

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10 minutes ago, griteater said:

This says the TVCN is a combination of: AVNI (GFS), EMXI (ECMWF, or Euro), HWFI (HWRF), CTCI (NRL COAMPS-TC w/GFS initial boundary conditions), and EGRI (UKMet)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Yeah it could have been COAMPS instead of HMON. Those are the models they used last year. For some reason I thought they had tweaked it this year but I've been trying to find where I saw it and can't so there's a good chance I just imagined it.

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Not much change on 12Z guidance.....still has the stall/turn

06L_tracks_12z.thumb.png.1136c88691666c7682459bb766912c82.png

 

 

 

It looks like the stall is happening offshore on most of those.  If this trend continues, it would be terrible for beach erosion/flooding/surge but probably better for inland areas, as there should be some weakening of the storm.  Wouldn't it be nice for once to have a storm that maintained motion for the duration?

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Looking at the Euro ensemble tracks from 00z it's almost as if they smoothed out the tracks that many of the other models are seeing. Like instead of going NW until off of ILM and then due west the EPS just goes WNW the entire time and ends up in more or less the same spot after 120-144h.

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

The storm needs to come to the Euro then cause so far the track is north of all the recent Euro runs and the Euro is performing worse than most the others....so far...also the storm appears to be moving more NW than anything right now though its tough to tell with the ugly eye but i imagine the separation to the Euro runs is just getting bigger...the FV3 has been very consistent its landfall point hasnt moved more than 10-20 miles run to run for the last 6-8 runs at least.....GFS doing very well so far with track verification...surprisingly enough....still gotta take the blend of the two and thats about where the NHC has it.....the models are doing a bit of back and forth the last day and that probably will continue but overall ILM to MHX is where this likely ends up....

Et1.thumb.png.aa87dcb107ba705606ff00486cb57c51.png

 

gt1.thumb.png.be411695b8b3201afa376594ac7949e6.png

 

49 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The NHC uses the TVCN for their forecast track its a consensus of the models.....below is the consensus track and verification so far....this is why the NHC has its cone and ath where it does....obviously as the models move around this will too but I doubt we see them move the landfall spot more than 50 miles either way at this point.....there landfall point will shift west 10-15 miles at 11am.....

CSt.thumb.png.2a08ecbd12f7ad40e04a96542a9b1f8a.png

 

Personally, I was hoping the last Euro run was on to something with it being farther south and into SC, and Flo wouldn't track over the Triangle. But now this has pretty much crushed that hope. 

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22 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It looks like the stall is happening offshore on most of those.  If this trend continues, it would be terrible for beach erosion/flooding/surge but probably better for inland areas, as there should be some weakening of the storm.  Wouldn't it be nice for once to have a storm that maintained motion for the duration?

It's  amazing how the models are still up in the air where the storm will stall.

Hope it stalls offshore

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At least the stall will keep the full strength eyewall winds from getting as far inland as they would with a fast moving system. I'm looking at that as a good thing. Yes, the flooding from rainfall will be worse, but if that is spread out over several days many places will be able to handle it better. And less wind inland means less power outages which keeps the pumps running. I realize its not great, but maybe its something.

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Up to this point, I was trying to get my son and daughter in law to leave Chapel Hill and come here. Now it looks like there is just as much potential for worse weather here than in CH. I guess it will be Thursday before we know where it’s going after it hits near the N.C./SC line. 

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13 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

At least the stall will keep the full strength eyewall winds from getting as far inland as they would with a fast moving system. I'm looking at that as a good thing. Yes, the flooding from rainfall will be worse, but if that is spread out over several days many places will be able to handle it better. And less wind inland means less power outages which keeps the pumps running. I realize its not great, but maybe its something.

I have to respectfully disagree. Yes, it limits wind damage further inland, but a stall could produce astronomical flooding in eastern NC. I would much rather see a faster moving storm.

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2 minutes ago, Kilgore Trout said:

I have to respectfully disagree. Yes, it limits wind damage further inland, but a stall could produce astronomical flooding in eastern NC. I would much rather see a faster moving storm.

I realize that. And I'm not talking about what I prefer, but rather maybe a slight good spot in an otherwise dreadful situation. Yes the flooding could be similar to what happened with Floyd. And that's the worst I have seen in downeast NC. Still both are true. I think the thing that surprised many people with Hugo, Fran and Hazel is that the fast forward motion brought the worst of the eyewall winds so far inland. 

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Glad to see less rain for Raleigh. Glad to see the winds will be lots better. So far anyway. I guess because they think she will dispense herself on the coastal counties. 

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

GFS is a little south early on out to hr18

Its frustrating cause now this stupid stall is gonna make getting this right hard on the models.....when and how fast it stalls will matter a lot obviously....the models dont have the skill to pinpoint it at all either at least not to within 50-75 miles....its going to come down to nowcasting the center as it approaches.....

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13 minutes ago, Regan said:

Glad to see less rain for Raleigh. Glad to see the winds will be lots better. So far anyway. I guess because they think she will dispense herself on the coastal counties. 

Selfishly we want to be as far sw of the eye & eyewall as we can.  Having this projected to pass anywhere south of the triangle in my opinion is not good.  Doubt it is going across SC so anywhere north of there is just too close.

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Wonder if there are any biases to breaking the ridge down too fast or keeping it in place too long, etc. that would be good to know here?

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