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pasnownut

Central PA Fall 2018

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22 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thanks...I think.

Since your such a great stats guy.........can you pad them...a LOT!!

Ouch, but that was my worry.  Clouds wrung themselves out i guess. lol

In truth, it would be nice to see how those 10 winters looked like regarding major indicies (Enso etc) in relation to how we look as a low end Modoki Nino seems to be appearing more likely.  I'm hoping none of the above have a similar data set.

Appreciate the feedback.

Nut

The sample size is too small. Since 1950, 2004-05 would probably be the closest potential ENSO match.

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40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The sample size is too small. Since 1950, 2004-05 would probably be the closest potential ENSO match.

Yeah I know.  10 isn't a big number, but it you'da said they were all good.....I'd be just fine w/ that :P

#grasping

Looking forward to your reads as we approach show time. 

Nut

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah I know.  10 isn't a big number, but it you'da said they were all good.....I'd be just fine w/ that :P

#grasping

Looking forward to your reads as we approach show time. 

Nut

Thanks. Hopefully, it will be a good winter.

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21 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

I wonder where the Manheim/Mount Joy area stands for their yearly rainfall total...I'd have to think they're between 60"-70". I'm sitting at 57". Even though I'm only 4 miles outside of Mt. Joy, a couple of events they doubled my total, including the 8/31 deluge. 

I’m at 66.02” in Fairfield Adams County at my work (golf course).  15.96” for September.   Around 60" for coop site in Cashtown.    

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1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I’m at 66.02” in Fairfield Adams County at my work (golf course).  15.96” for September.    Low 60’s for coop site in Cashtown.    

Wow.

We've had a few winter-like events over the past several weeks that have targeted the far southern border counties. I knew you were "doing well" but I honestly didn't know you were doing THAT well. 

How's the course holding up? 

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What a head-scratching, horrific call to crush my hopes and dreams tonight. How do you NOT give #9 a chance to win the game? I will see that ill-advised handoff to Sanders in my dreams for days on end. This is true in any sport...with the game on the line, you give your play maker a chance to make a play. The ball (and the game) was literally taken out of Trace's hands. I know, I know...it's easy to 2nd guess things that don't work. My biggest beef is that Ohio State snuffed Sanders ALL night. They did very little to contain McSorley. He only rushed for 175 freaking yards. 

Being up 12 at home and losing makes the pain doubly bad.

Being up 12 at home and losing to Ohio State is killing me. 

Thanks for letting me vent. We now resume weather talk and what promises to be a week of way above normal temperatures yet again. Joy in abundance tonight. 

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1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

What a head-scratching, horrific call to crush my hopes and dreams tonight. How do you NOT give #9 a chance to win the game? I will see that ill-advised handoff to Sanders in my dreams for days on end. This is true in any sport...with the game on the line, you give your play maker a chance to make a play. The ball (and the game) was literally taken out of Trace's hands. I know, I know...it's easy to 2nd guess things that don't work. My biggest beef is that Ohio State snuffed Sanders ALL night. They did very little to contain McSorley. He only rushed for 175 freaking yards. 

Being up 12 at home and losing makes the pain doubly bad.

Being up 12 at home and losing to Ohio State is killing me. 

Thanks for letting me vent. We now resume weather talk and what promises to be a week of way above normal temperatures yet again. Joy in abundance tonight. 

That was one of the worst offensive play calls of all time in a crucial fourth down situation with the game on the line. What was Franklin thinking? As you said you let your playmaker, McSorley, throw the ball with the option to run for the first down. If he throws it to a receiver theres a chance for interference and an automatic first down. What a crushing loss but extra crushing losing to Ohio St and Urban Liar. Hes a dirtbag who protects abusers of women. Enough said

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10 hours ago, pirates21 said:

That was one of the worst offensive play calls of all time in a crucial fourth down situation with the game on the line. What was Franklin thinking? As you said you let your playmaker, McSorley, throw the ball with the option to run for the first down. If he throws it to a receiver theres a chance for interference and an automatic first down. What a crushing loss but extra crushing losing to Ohio St and Urban Liar. Hes a dirtbag who protects abusers of women. Enough said

Yeah...

In retrospect after a fitful night of sleep I'd be remiss in not giving the Buckeyes some credit. Down 2 scores in that environment and coming back like that...I tip my cap to them for that. 

12/30/2000 fellas...I went to bed that night to a forecast of 12"-24" of snow. Woke up excitedly at 6:00am to see the blizzard. Only problem was it was partly cloudy. One of the most cruelest disappointments personally and weather model failures in modern weather history. I remember how empty I felt that day. 

Isn't it amazing what weather and sports can do to one's morale? 

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Yeah...
In retrospect after a fitful night of sleep I'd be remiss in not giving the Buckeyes some credit. Down 2 scores in that environment and coming back like that...I tip my cap to them for that. 
12/30/2000 fellas...I went to bed that night to a forecast of 12"-24" of snow. Woke up excitedly at 6:00am to see the blizzard. Only problem was it was partly cloudy. One of the most cruelest disappointments personally and weather model failures in modern weather history. I remember how empty I felt that day. 
Isn't it amazing what weather and sports can do to one's morale? 

That one still stings, lol.


.

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Franklin isn’t really a big game coach, he lacks that skill in Xs abd Os. 

 

Penn State should quit the White Out stuff, they have a losing record when they do that. It’s much ado about nothing.

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Franklin isn’t really a big game coach, he lacks that skill in Xs abd Os. 

 

Penn State should quit the White Out stuff, they have a losing record when they do that. It’s much ado about nothing.

True...but remember:

1. Whiteouts are always against the marquee team of the season

2. A handful of those games were in the lean years in the wake of the scandal when PSU was clearly overmatched in every way possible. 

3. Agree 100% about Franklin. Great coach until game day, lol. It irked me the way he brought up player's grades in the post game press conference. Not cool. 

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Weekend summary...

PSU -L (painful)

Eagles - L (extra painful)     

weather - going back to +departures    

Had a great time in the woods though Saturday.  Guess that'll have to do for now.   

Happy friggin monday.

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4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Weekend summary...

PSU -L (painful)

Eagles - L (extra painful)     

weather - going back to +departures    

Had a great time in the woods though Saturday.  Guess that'll have to do for now.   

Happy friggin monday.

Steelers - L  Bad sports weekend.

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Based on the latest guidance, Harrisburg could have a mean temperature of approximately 69° for the first week in October. That would place the first week of October 2018 among the ten warmest such weeks on record. Records go back to 1888.

The 10 warmest first weeks in October are:

1. 74.4°, 1941
2. 72.6°, 1959
3. 71.0°, 2013
4. 70.6°, 2007
5. 70.2°, 1922
6. 70.1°, 1900
7. 69.8°, 1931
8. 69.1°, 1898
9. 69.0°, 1927
10. 68.8°, 1995

From among that set of years, both 1900 and 2007 went on to see October finish with an average monthly temperature of 60° or above. Only six years have had such warm Octobers. The six warmest years are:

1. 62.0°, 2007
2. 61.5°, 1984
3. 61.3°, 1947
4. 61.2°, 2017
5. 60.6°, 1900
6. 60.5°, 1971

Should 2018 finish with a 60° or higher mean temperature, 2017 and 2018 would be the first occurrence of consecutive years with such October warmth.

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on the latest guidance, Harrisburg could have a mean temperature of approximately 69° for the first week in October. That would place the first week of October 2018 among the ten warmest such weeks on record. Records go back to 1888.

The 10 warmest first weeks in October are:

1. 74.4°, 1941
2. 72.6°, 1959
3. 71.0°, 2013
4. 70.6°, 2007
5. 70.2°, 1922
6. 70.1°, 1900
7. 69.8°, 1931
8. 69.1°, 1898
9. 69.0°, 1927
10. 68.8°, 1995

From among that set of years, both 1900 and 2007 went on to see October finish with an average monthly temperature of 60° or above. Only six years have had such warm Octobers. The six warmest years are:

1. 62.0°, 2007
2. 61.5°, 1984
3. 61.3°, 1947
4. 61.2°, 2017
5. 60.6°, 1900
6. 60.5°, 1971

Should 2018 finish with a 60° or higher mean temperature, 2017 and 2018 would be the first occurrence of consecutive years with such October warmth.

 

Awesome stuff Don, thank you! By the way, not sure about Harrisburg, but just down the road at Lancaster it was the 2nd warmest September on record. The beat goes on...

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411 
NWUS51 KCLE 021850
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
250 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TORNADO          5 E CONNEAUTVILLE       41.76N 80.27W 
10/02/2018                   CRAWFORD           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            CONFIRMED TORNADO. NURSING HOME STRUCK BY TORNADO.


&&

$$

LOMBARDY

 

That doesn't sound good

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42 minutes ago, Tibet said:
411 
NWUS51 KCLE 021850
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
250 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TORNADO          5 E CONNEAUTVILLE       41.76N 80.27W 
10/02/2018                   CRAWFORD           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            CONFIRMED TORNADO. NURSING HOME STRUCK BY TORNADO.


&&

$$

LOMBARDY

 

That doesn't sound good

The wording on their warnings is something I’ve actually never seen in our area.

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