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NJwx85

Excessive Rainfall and Thunderstorm Event

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Yea I’m not a morning person so I get later flights. Starting raining early today at 9:30 which isn’t normal, every other day rain started after 2

It sucks getting up that early, especially when flying home, but I find it's worth it. 

Anway your problem isn't whatever rain you're getting down there. In fact, that storm activity is already well past you.

I am assuming you're flying into JFK

This from flightaware:

John F Kennedy Intl is experiencing delays

all inbound flights being held at their origin until Monday at 12:30PM EDT due to thunderstorms

inbound flights delayed at their origin an average of 3 hours 6 minutes due to thunderstorms

departure delays of 2 hours 1 minutes to 2 hours 15 minutes (and increasing) due to weather

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34 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

So my house is about .5 miles from the Wantagh mesonet. The meso rssported .03” yesterday. It poured so hard at my house yesterday we had basement flooding. Talk about a sharp cutoff

This is why I think even those hi-res radar estimates could be off.  It would be pouring at my place and the radar wouldn't show more than shower at times yesterday. 

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7 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

This is why I think even those hi-res radar estimates could be off.  It would be pouring at my place and the radar wouldn't show more than shower at times yesterday. 

Lots of shallow moisture below the radar beam.

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Radar drying up rapidly (with consideration given to robust low-level moisture).  Nonetheless I think the sillier model totals in NNJ will bust well low of that barring any redevelopment.

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2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Radar drying up rapidly (with consideration given to robust low-level moisture).  Nonetheless I think the sillier model totals in NNJ will bust well low of that barring any redevelopment.

parts of NJ have had 5-8 inches of rain this morning...LOL no bust there

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14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

parts of NJ have had 5-8 inches of rain this morning...LOL no bust there

NNJ?  I know Monmouth did.

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Just had a 15 downpour here that immediately resulted in flash flooding. The rain has been intermittent today, but when it has rained, it's been intense.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

So my house is about .5 miles from the Wantagh mesonet. The meso rssported .03” yesterday. It poured so hard at my house yesterday we had basement flooding. Talk about a sharp cutoff

I didn’t have one drop yesterday. Was a classic boundary just inland situation where storms developed a few miles north of me. There were a few rumbles of thunder and times when the sky darkened but that’s it. Photogenic at times with towering cumulus nearly overhead but otherwise nada. 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

parts of NJ have had 5-8 inches of rain this morning...LOL no bust there

If that fell on the Pompton-Passaic watershed, Route 23 in Riverdale-Pompton Plains would be closed for a week.  (As it was back when I lived there, 1950-72: in 1955 - Connie/Diane - and 13 years later from a late May deluge.  Seeing flood debris on the top railing of bridges was impressive.)

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I didn’t have one drop yesterday. Was a classic boundary just inland situation where storms developed a few miles north of me. There were a few rumbles of thunder and times when the sky darkened but that’s it. Photogenic at times with towering cumulus nearly overhead but otherwise nada. 

Exactly what we had at Jones beach. A beautiful sunny day and a completely empty beach. We call that a “secret day”. Major flooding in north bellmore. Just got fringed at my house. Good thing it wasn’t snow in the winter!

 

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12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

If that fell on the Pompton-Passaic watershed, Route 23 in Riverdale-Pompton Plains would be closed for a week.  (As it was back when I lived there, 1950-72: in 1955 - Connie/Diane - and 13 years later from a late May deluge.  Seeing flood debris on the top railing of bridges was impressive.)

If anything tropical comes up in the next few weeks it will be a disaster, ala 2011. 

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12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

If that fell on the Pompton-Passaic watershed, Route 23 in Riverdale-Pompton Plains would be closed for a week.  (As it was back when I lived there, 1950-72: in 1955 - Connie/Diane - and 13 years later from a late May deluge.  Seeing flood debris on the top railing of bridges was impressive.)

We've had 5 or 6 major floods in the last fifteen years on the Pompton, including the new record from August 2011.

So far the river system has been handling the water decently with some spikes to near action stage but nothing crazy so far. It helps that most of the heaviest rains have been highly localized with a few miles meaning the difference between 6" and nothing. Very Florida esque. Of course, now the ground is saturated so any significant rains will have the potential to cause river flooding.

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If anything tropical comes up in the next few weeks it will be a disaster, ala 2011. 

If the position of the WAR doesn't change much, the recurve route will be up the coast instead of between Bermuda and the coast.

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Yanks is right about the radar not telling the full story.  Light/moderate showering under zero returns.

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don't call this a bust for nnj just yet. more heavy echoes developing and expanding near union county

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23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

don't call this a bust for nnj just yet. more heavy echoes developing and expanding near union county

I see it.  I should qualify "bust," it was relative to some of the model outputs and not the NWS forecasting.

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29 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I see it.  I should qualify "bust," it was relative to some of the model outputs and not the NWS forecasting.

to be fair this is convective rainfall and models are notorious for not getting the placement exactly correct

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3 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

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The rainfall maps for this system are crazy. 8+ inches in one area, barely an inch a few miles to the south. This is central PA but it's the same thing in this area.

There are big time orographic influences that have factored in to those totals.  That part of central PA is rugged and mountainous.

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I think we're going to be relatively dry for the next several hours. I say relatively because there should still be a mostly steady to at times moderate rain, but I think whatever major convection is to come will wait until tomorrow. We're too close to the actual ULL now.

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31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I believe the storms currently moving through Southern PA and MD is our next big slug of rain.

Theres a nice complex currently in VA too. Id watch that area for eastern areas in the cwa

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35 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It's been pretty much steady light rain all day. There were some heavy showers mixed in this morning but mostly light. What a gross day.

Another beautiful sunny end to the day at Jones beach. Amazing what the ocean can do. I was looking at a full cloud deck just inland.

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