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WxUSAF

Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

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29 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yeah...but the GFS always shows a coastal bomb at hour 2304.

As long as there is no SLP in the Great Lakes, I think we're good 

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9 hours ago, yoda said:

As long as there is no SLP in the Great Lakes, I think we're good 

Shut yo mouth boyo.

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Seems HM thinks more variables then just low solar . I agree, but having this in our favor can not hurt. 

I would actually like to see a moderate EL Nino , as weak just does not cut it down here in our region.  Bring on a moderate Nino and percentages of more significant snowfall rise. 

Also, wondering about the SSTs up near and North of Europe and what that means for blocking this winter seaon. Not talking the look of the tri pole for ideal - NAO, but more so the implications for the formation of blocking highs that may in turn retrograde towards Greenland over time, under more favorable hemeispheric QBO conditions, just speculation.     

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, frd said:

Seems HM thinks more variables then just low solar . I agree, but having this in our favor can not hurt. 

I would actually like to see a moderate EL Nino , as weak just does not cut it down here in our region.  Bring on a moderate Nino and percentages of more significant snowfall rise. 

Also, wondering about the SSTs up near and North of Europe and what that means for blocking this winter seaon. Not talking the look of the tri pole for ideal - NAO, but more so the implications for the formation of blocking highs that may in turn retrograde towards Greenland over time, under more favorable hemeispheric QBO conditions, just speculation.     

 

 

 

 

 

Does anybody have any data on winters that followed a solar minimum other than 2009?

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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Does anybody have any data on winters that followed a solar minimum other than 2009?

I might look into it later but here you go. Give you an idea what winters we are talking about.

yearlysolaractivity.thumb.gif.43dc160de4105a20a3e0fa04ac4a1a58.gif

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On 8/1/2018 at 6:31 PM, showmethesnow said:

I might look into it later but here you go. Give you an idea what winters we are talking about.

yearlysolaractivity.thumb.gif.43dc160de4105a20a3e0fa04ac4a1a58.gif

Those mins are some stellar snow times 

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11 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Those mins are some stellar snow times 

Absolutely. I just looked up the seasonal snow data for Hagerstown and according to the graph you posted 3 of the top 4 snowiest winters happened during a minimum. 

Not saying we are going to have a huge season but it's a positive thing we have going for us.

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12 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Those mins are some stellar snow times 

Unscientific opinion: Ohhh,  THAT'S why 1996 managed the impossible feat of producing a bonafide I-95 blizzard during a La Niña! Lol (I mean seriously, after watching last season and learning about all the reasons La Nina snows don't work here? That was nothing short of a miracle, hahaha). 

But seriously, I would like to know more about just how much a solar minimum contributes to the winter...I mean I know causation doesn't mean correlation, but is it at least one helpful variable to add to the dozens of "things that need to go right" that we need that we can add to the list? :D

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58 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Absolutely. I just looked up the seasonal snow data for Hagerstown and according to the graph you posted 3 of the top 4 snowiest winters happened during a minimum. 

Not saying we are going to have a huge season but it's a positive thing we have going for us.

Any positive to add to the primordial mid-Atlantic snow soup will be quite helpful...lol

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Just thinking out loud and we still have a long way to go but I do like what I am seeing at this time in the Pacific with SST's. 

Here is the pic from Aug 2nd.

SSTAug6.thumb.jpg.b4dbd67154cb0972b9c0b8e53127df68.jpg

We are seeing a substantial blow up in the Gulf of Alaska at this time of warm anomalies. This probably argues for/favors seeing ridging/high pressures up through that region and at least a northern based +PNA to develop. To the west of that over around the Aleutians we are seeing a cold anomalous pool.  This would probably favor seeing troughing/low develop through this region. This is a favorable configuration for seeing cold air dumped into the central US and eastward.

To the south of the warm blob in the GOA we are seeing a cold pool developing off of the western US coast. Considering the SST configuration in the NE Pacific now showing I feel that this probably argues for a tendency for cutoff lows off the California coast. And what is quite often seen with cutoff lows in that location is that we see split flow develop which is favorable for possible winter storms, possibly big storms as the jets will occasionally phase. 

Looking at the ENSO state at this time and projections leading into the winter it looks as if we are still on track to seeing at least a weak if not moderate El Nino. This as well is also favorable for our winter chances as this is favorable for an active southern jet which can bring in moisture laden storms. All and all, I am liking what I am seeing in the Pacific at this time in regards to SSTs and what they would imply for the possible dominate winter pattern that would set up. But there are many other factors involved to the final solution and we still have plenty of time for things to change but at this point things look positive.

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Just thinking out loud and we still have a long way to go but I do like what I am seeing at this time in the Pacific with SST's. 

Here is the pic from Aug 2nd.

SSTAug6.thumb.jpg.b4dbd67154cb0972b9c0b8e53127df68.jpg

We are seeing a substantial blow up in the Gulf of Alaska at this time of warm anomalies. This probably argues for/favors seeing ridging/high pressures up through that region and at least a northern based +PNA to develop. To the west of that over around the Aleutians we are seeing a cold anomalous pool.  This would probably favor seeing troughing/low develop through this region. This is a favorable configuration for seeing cold air dumped into the central US and eastward.

To the south of the warm blob in the GOA we are seeing a cold pool developing off of the western US coast. Considering the SST configuration in the NE Pacific now showing I feel that this probably argues for a tendency for cutoff lows off the California coast. And what is quite often seen with cutoff lows in that location is that we see split flow develop which is favorable for possible winter storms, possibly big storms as the jets will occasionally phase. 

Looking at the ENSO state at this time and projections leading into the winter it looks as if we are still on track to seeing at least a weak if not moderate El Nino. This as well is also favorable for our winter chances as this is favorable for an active southern jet which can bring in moisture laden storms. All and all, I am liking what I am seeing in the Pacific at this time in regards to SSTs and what they would imply for the possible dominate winter pattern that would set up. But there are many other factors involved to the final solution and we still have plenty of time for things to change but at this point things look positive.

I can't claim to analyze winter potential like you do, but I love what I see. Granted, the last two years were practically unmitigated catastrophes so it's all relative, but I think this is the best setup the east has seen for a good winter since 2013-14 (where things looked muddled IIRC but everything broke our way). 

It hurts tropical (ENSO) but after the year we had, I'd trade a little tropical for a lot more winter. I think. 

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Apologies, meant to post in discobs thread.

 

Pop up shower right now on Capitol Hill. I don't have an outdoor thermometer, but it is 90 at DCA.  Gonna check out the stickiness outside in a bit.

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Borrowed from the SNE Winter 2018-2019 thread... this would be a nice look IF it were true :lol: 

 

Very good look. One thing I would like to see added to that is to see the low pressure anomalies hooking a little more up the east coast into or around the 50/50 region.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can't claim to analyze winter potential like you do, but I love what I see. Granted, the last two years were practically unmitigated catastrophes so it's all relative, but I think this is the best setup the east has seen for a good winter since 2013-14 (where things looked muddled IIRC but everything broke our way). 

It hurts tropical (ENSO) but after the year we had, I'd trade a little tropical for a lot more winter. I think. 

Have a feeling that with the solar min. approaching that up top and the Atlantic (-AO, -NAO) will cooperate this year so the Pacific will probably be key. And so far I am liking what I am seeing as far as SSTs in the Pacific but it is still way early to be banking on that come this fall. We are definitely in a much better place then where we were at at this time last year though.

Know it is still a little early but I keep looking into the extended and really haven't liked the look for potential tropical (Atlantic) up to this point.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can't claim to analyze winter potential like you do, but I love what I see. Granted, the last two years were practically unmitigated catastrophes so it's all relative, but I think this is the best setup the east has seen for a good winter since 2013-14 (where things looked muddled IIRC but everything broke our way). 

It hurts tropical (ENSO) but after the year we had, I'd trade a little tropical for a lot more winter. I think. 

Yeah, in my untrained opinion, definitely seems like this tropical season is gonna be much more hostile to tropical development than last year (someone commented on a high level of wind shear in another thread a couple days ago). But for a better winter than the last two...fine, lol We have been punished enough! (But how many weak to moderate El Niños have followed back-to-back Niñas? And I take it a neutral won't quite do it...Someone (I think it was @psuhoffman) that it didn't work well the last time we had a neutral after two Niñas...That would really suck if it happens like that! But...ya never know around here...But you'd think we're due (and if not this year, next year...I'm keeping expectations extremely tempered.)

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15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah, in my untrained opinion, definitely seems like this tropical season is gonna be much more hostile to tropical development than last year (someone commented on a high level of wind shear in another thread a couple days ago). But for a better winter than the last two...fine, lol We have been punished enough! (But how many weak to moderate El Niños have followed back-to-back Niñas? And I take it a neutral won't quite do it...Someone (I think it was @psuhoffman) that it didn't work well the last time we had a neutral after two Niñas...That would really suck if it happens like that! But...ya never know around here...But you'd think we're due (and if not this year, next year...I'm keeping expectations extremely tempered.)

I do remember reading something about this as well. But if I recall correctly we were talking such a small sample size that you had to take this premise with caution.

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

I do remember reading something about this as well. But if I recall correctly we were talking such a small sample size that you had to take this premise with caution.

Yeah I remember that we only had one or two examples to go by, so...let's hope it won't apply here (of course neutrals are always more hit-or-miss than Niños anyway, but...coming off of this bad stretch of Niñas, I would be even less trusting of a neutral, lol). Wonder if the "floor"  or worst case scenario, of this setup would be a neutral that hovers around negative as opposed to positive?

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