MJO812 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The mean will never do well with the intensity. So toss that with regards to strength. The key is to see what the members are doing. Looked to me that a good amount of members are posing a SE US threat. Alot more are hits at 0z compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The mean will never do well with the intensity. So toss that with regards to strength. The key is to see what the members are doing. Looked to me that a good amount of members are posing a SE US threat. Mentally noted, thanks pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Some of the GEFS members hit us pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 When do we not see some models show any tropical system in the Atlantic not hit SNE or the EC in the 7-10 day range? Seems like it happens every time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: When do we not see some models show any tropical system in the Atlantic not hit SNE or the EC in the 7-10 day range? Seems like it happens every time. No doubt, but a lot of times they do that when the pattern does not support an EC hit. The building ridging depicted makes this case a bit more plausible, provided Flo doesn't slink off through a weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The mean will never do well with the intensity. So toss that with regards to strength. The key is to see what the members are doing. Looked to me that a good amount of members are posing a SE US threat. There were several trapped under the ridge on yesterday's 12z but it went up a lot on the 00z run last night. Pretty big ensemble shift but that's why you don't make definitive forecasts for a storm 8 to 10 days out. I haven't seen much if any runs with a favorable northeast landfall synoptic look with a Midwest trough. But that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: No doubt, but a lot of times they do that when the pattern does not support an EC hit. The building ridging depicted makes this case a bit more plausible, provided Flo doesn't slink off through a weakness. I think Scott had mentioned this but models don’t seem to handle Atlantic rushing too well and often times overplay it...especially in the 6-10 day range. We’ve seen that happen so many times. Plus...there is a ton of dry air lurking around the Atlantic and probably going to see dry air off the coast after the FROPA. Shear may not be all that favorable...on a large scale either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 It's now (unexpectedly) a cat 3 if anyone was paying attention lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's now (unexpectedly) a cat 3 if anyone was paying attention lol. Nice looking system. Looks like it's hitting a RI period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Intensity is such a mystery sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Nothing happening here. In the World of alternate facts. Here today gone tomorrow. Ominous and pretty all in same breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Let’s try and find a way to get her up the coast into SNE and take advantage of these record SST’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s try and find a way to get her up the coast into SNE and take advantage of these record SST’s As always, lead the wishing ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 53 minutes ago, Hoth said: Intensity is such a mystery sometimes. Yep. Intensity forecast is still a great mystery. Track is pretty good though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 GFS canadaian and icon all take it close to SNE at 12z but still offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS canadaian and icon all take it close to SNE at 12z but still offshore Deflector shield is still firmly in place. Worry not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS canadaian and icon all take it close to SNE at 12z but still offshore Its historically and climatologically favored to do so. Need to see some type of deepening trough to the west and a blocking ridge to the east with a strong S flow that slingshots the storm up the coast. Many times the storms recurve around the ridge and/or or get pushed out to sea by the westerlies. Seems like the Carolinas could be more favored if the ridge remains strong and in place longer but who really knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 IneedHurricanes has been vigorously watching op runs of this since the first cloud formed off the African coast. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 0Z Euro had Florence going west into the SE US. 12Z Euro run brings Florence NW to the Delaware coast then stalls it before a slow east drift. Strong high pressure blocks the storm from getting up here. Not the setup for having a strong cane running up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Flo playing a prolonged game of Just The Tip with the Mid-Atlantic this run. What a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 57 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: IneedHurricanes has been vigorously watching op runs of this since the first cloud formed off the African coast. I should change my name to that. Lol hey could happen.. I'm like a little kid on Christmas when it comes to this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 We watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Ukie ensembles are pretty far south near the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 I like this, perfect position for big surf for days and days yet staying offshore, lets do this Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Surf should be amazing next week. A tiny piece of my noggin is concerned about the remnants of the WAR flinging it to our hood. But I think we are safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I like this, perfect position for big surf for days and days yet staying offshore, lets do this Jose. Let's do this Bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Lets get her up here and inland as a very strong cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Yea I’d prefer some damage to interior NECT locations that deserve it rather than hear about ginxy boogie boarding in the Niantic Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lets get her up here and inland as a very strong cane It really sucks going without power for a week. Been there done that. Generac to the rescue! I'd put the odds well under 10% of a SNE landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 5, 2018 Author Share Posted September 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: It really sucks going without power for a week. Been there done that. Generac to the rescue! I'd put the odds well under 10% of a SNE landfall. Honestly I think given the time and the probability of a landfall in SNE, I would say percentages are near 1.3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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