CIK62 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 Remainder of July averaging 76degs., or 1deg BN. Month to date is +1.3. Should end at +1.2. The full 8 days is 79/+2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 Warm front is currently advancing Northward through the mid-atlantic, with an expanding rain shield up to about Cape May. By the looks of the radar, should be a very wet second half of the day. Most of the models have this activity moving offshore, but you can clearly see it's all moving NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Warm front is currently advancing Northward through the mid-atlantic, with an expanding rain shield up to about Cape May. By the looks of the radar, should be a very wet second half of the day. Most of the models have this activity moving offshore, but you can clearly see it's all moving NNE. Sure does look more NNE than NE. clouds racing in quick too. Better today than the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 I think I'll take all the WFOs and all the model guidance over radar hallucinations. Since doorman's not here, have an NCEP map presented without comment and figure out why the best forcing should weaken and slide offshore. Also, winds on the relevant isentropic surfaces turn much more zonal near the M-D line, and the column up here is dry as a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 If there are to be any surprises, I would think it's tomorrow AM. Morning warm frontal passages often over-deliver on rain/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 Certainly not the best beach on tap - might be a better time to hit the tap today http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Warm front is currently advancing Northward through the mid-atlantic, with an expanding rain shield up to about Cape May. By the looks of the radar, should be a very wet second half of the day. Most of the models have this activity moving offshore, but you can clearly see it's all moving NNE. Hard to believe every model is gonna be wrong about rain not making it up here this afternoon. You can see the radar echoes weakening and moving more ENE once they get up to southern Jersey. I could see some sprinkles making it up to central Jersey, but that should be about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 This Friday (August 3rd) the NYC mean makes its first drop by 1 degree to 76 degrees. By Aug 31st the mean is down to 73 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, sferic said: This Friday (August 3rd) the NYC mean makes its first drop by 1 degree to 76 degrees. By Aug 31st the mean is down to 73 degrees. starting to lose daylight at a quicker pace from here on out as well. Sunset is now 8:12pm, 18 minutes off the peak from late June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: starting to lose daylight at a quicker pace from here on out as well. Sunset is now 8:12pm, 18 minutes off the peak from late June... The worst part of fall. Hate losing sunlight. Leaving work in thnow dark sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 57 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Hard to believe every model is gonna be wrong about rain not making it up here this afternoon. You can see the radar echoes weakening and moving more ENE once they get up to southern Jersey. I could see some sprinkles making it up to central Jersey, but that should be about it. We'll see. When I made my earlier post I hadn't looked at a single model run, just based it off of current trends and observations. It looks like the radar is trying to fill in over E PA near Allentown, so I guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We'll see. When I made my earlier post I hadn't looked at a single model run, just based it off of current trends and observations. It looks like the radar is trying to fill in over E PA near Allentown, so I guess time will tell. Fill in near Allentown? All I see on radar out that way is false echoes. And you can clearly see the echoes way to the south being pushed east when they make it up to southern Jersey. It's very obvious to me that there's not going to be any rain at all up here this afternoon, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We'll see. When I made my earlier post I hadn't looked at a single model run, just based it off of current trends and observations. It looks like the radar is trying to fill in over E PA near Allentown, so I guess time will tell. Focus on batch of rain/storms moving NE out of WV/SW-PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Focus on batch of rain/storms moving NE out of WV/SW-PA Yes I'm not sure what he was talking about near Allentown. On the Mount Holly base reflectivity loop you can see echoes south of Allentown through central Jersey, but they are clearly false echoes (ground clutter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 cloudy and down to 77 here after reaching 81 earlier...still comfy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 While it does appear that the batch of rain from down in the Mid-Atlantic is having trouble reaching further North of Central NJ, there is quite a bit of rain over Northern PA and extreme Southern NY that appears to be heading in this direction. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=bgm&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: While it does appear that the batch of rain from down in the Mid-Atlantic is having trouble reaching further North of Central NJ, there is quite a bit of rain over Northern PA and extreme Southern NY that appears to be heading in this direction. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=bgm&loop=yes that's where I think we can catch a surprise tonight and tomorrow AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 Only made it to 76° here today with all the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 30, 2018 Author Share Posted July 30, 2018 Current temp 78/DP 69/RH 67% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 GFS high temperature bias continues: GFS average high for the next 10 days is 93, and the EURO's is 85. At any rate we have about 60 hours till a long run of AN hot air invades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 my rainfall at my station YTD is greater than all of 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 5 hours ago, NJwx85 said: While it does appear that the batch of rain from down in the Mid-Atlantic is having trouble reaching further North of Central NJ, there is quite a bit of rain over Northern PA and extreme Southern NY that appears to be heading in this direction. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=bgm&loop=yes Of course heading in our direction doesn't mean it's gonna rain here, and the rain fell apart as expected. The models were right about us getting nothing this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: Of course heading in our direction doesn't mean it's gonna rain here, and the rain fell apart as expected. The models were right about us getting nothing this afternoon and evening. models from hour 0-12 are very accurate for the most part...that get lost in the shuffle sometimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Last day of July is averaging 76degs , or 1deg. BN. Month to date is +1.1 and should end there. Take out the first 5 days of July and the remainder of July was -0.5. The full 8 days is 81/+4. GFS has 11 day HW starting Aug. 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Cluds in the way kind of day again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Precip chances this week continue to look less than impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Precip chances this week continue to look less than impressive Upton went fairly wet, but models show the best rains inland (which make sense with a WAR building westward) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 So much for the idea of heading north to avoid the July heat. July 2018 is shaping up to have the warmest average July temperature on record for Burlington, VT with ~76 degrees and avg max of ~87 or more like Philadelphia, PA. Here is the mean weather pattern responsible. Read more atow.ly/5zkD30lbMZV #MeteorologicalMonday #BTV pic.twitter.com/KUIGvgpxA1 2:27 PM - 30 Jul 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LHSnow Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Parts of Suffolk continue the dry July pattern since 2013. This is the 6th consecutive July with below normal rainfall at Islip. 2018...2.98....-0.33 so far...normal...3.43 2017...2.11....-1.32 2016...3.22....-0.21 2015...1.74....-1.69 2014...2.96....-0.47 2013...2.34....-1.09 This is a pattern that seems to happen most summers out east where it is a lot drier than the western part of the island because they miss the thunderstorms. My house in Laurel Hollow has had 4.38 inches for the past month whereas my house in Southampton at 2.81 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.