tamarack Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 21 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Well, that 4600 number was derived statistically by looking at a small sample and extrapolating...probably not hugely accurate, but def more in line with reality that the 65 or whatever were “officially” killed. Pretty insane considering it was the US in 2017. Im guessing we will never know the “real” toll. And you are so right that our civilization, or at least the US part, is lining up for some monster catastrophes. Either a hurricane, or a Pacific coast volcanic deal, or an earthquake, or ...God help us...a Yellowstone caldera... That estimate also includes deaths related to storm-caused infrastructure failure, a valid inclusion but one which makes comparisons with prior events problematic. Events like the Okeechobee storm in the 1920s, with fatalities listed in the 1000s but less that 4600, almost certainly had the death toll from just the direct storm impact - water and wind - rather than deaths coming days/weeks/months later. Full agreement on "Isaac's Storm" - a great piece of history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ok, up to 1/4" now. 1/3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, radarman said: WaPo published this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/ They gave a lot more credence to the other 5 studies that estimated the death toll at ~1000. Certainly horrific enough as it is. It's difficult to attribute fatalities to storms in general (think of a swimmer swept out to sea by rips generated from a storm 1000 miles away), let alone with a storm like Maria. So many of these deaths are indirect, but attributed to the storm. The easy ones are due to falling/flying objects or flooding, but the hard ones are due to power loss and lack of resources following the storm. I could believe a number like 65 due to landfall itself, but no way did it end there. And that's pretty important for the NWS, because the after action reports will want to focus on why fatalities occurred. Was it a forecast problem, communication problem, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 45 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Heavy, heavy Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 Was about .35” when I left for work. Should easily be one half inch shortly if not already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Was about .35” when I left for work. Should easily be one half inch shortly if not already. I need a rain gauge at the new homestead. Davis for father's day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I need a rain gauge at the new homestead. Davis for father's day? Sounds like a good gift to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I need a rain gauge at the new homestead. Davis for father's day? Good for real time amounts, but the cocorahs is the ol' reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 .78 looks final to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Good for real time amounts, but the cocorahs is the ol' reliable. I'm pretty sure my wife would okay the 20 bucks for the CoCoRaHS gauge. Or I could sneak off with a spare 8" standard from the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: .78 looks final to me 1/2 that here. 0.39". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm pretty sure my wife would okay the 20 bucks for the CoCoRaHS gauge. Or I could sneak off with a spare 8" standard from the office. If you have spares they should be sent to Northfield 1W ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Was about .35” when I left for work. Ive got a one half inch shorty it’s tiny already. Glad we aren’t thee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: If you have spares they should be sent to Northfield 1W ASAP. And if "spares" really denotes plural, another one to New Sharon 2NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, tamarack said: And if "spares" really denotes plural, another one to New Sharon 2NW. And while were at it, One to 2E Lew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 1/2 that here. 0.39". Up to 1/2". We take. Lawn says thank you. My allergies say thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: And while were at it, One to 2E Lew. Your new avatar makes me think of @WxBlue. I wonder how he's enjoying 40s and rain in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Your new avatar makes me think of @WxBlue. I wonder how he's enjoying 40s and rain in June. Probably about the same as he did in January............ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 42 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Up to 1/2". We take. Lawn says thank you. My allergies say thank you. 0.63" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 I'm over an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 0.22". jipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 2 hours ago, dendrite said: If you have spares they should be sent to Northfield 1W ASAP. 2 hours ago, tamarack said: And if "spares" really denotes plural, another one to New Sharon 2NW. 2 hours ago, dryslot said: And while were at it, One to 2E Lew. NLSC might notice when a few SRGs go "missing" from GYX. But if anyone plans of moving to the North Woods, we're always looking for new Coops up there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 58 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 0.63" now. About 0.70" now. Can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 "In spite of frequent nor'easters leading to record heavy rainfall over east coast states from Massachusetts[2] to South Carolina[3] during April and May, drought had already been developing over the interior. However, only over the sparsely-populated far northern Great Plains was the spring unusually hot..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 .55" very happy! Perhaps another .25" over the next day or two.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 That excerpt above ... I just thought it a little musing as it echoes this spring a bit. It's a rather poorly written Wiki article about the 1901 hot summer, but it seems similar nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 About that death band fallacy we have been chided about...... Neat climatology of snow bands by Radford from the last several winters. Interesting to note multiple maxima in total snow band hours in the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 1.45inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 Statistics for weather-related phenomenon has several indirect/transitive causality/circumstantial links that give rise to a lot of relativity when comparing eras and settings. It makes the science of it both complex, but also ... I wonder how useful it really is to compare events from nearly 100 years ago. It's like trying to arbiter a debate over who is the better Boxer between Tyson and Ali during their respective hay "maker" days. Population vs population exposure: That being a big one. There are more people now; more importantly, more people physically in environments where climatology demonstrates in hard numbers, they should be physically located. For that ... it's easier to die. Shear numbers mean that there is a greater likelihood of one becoming an unwitting participant in a naturally occurring mortality study - to put it mildly... And it doesn't take a lot of mathematical computational power to assess that would be case when a hurricane in 1880 or 1980 or 2018 were to strike these geographical regions. 74.5 mph wind is just as deadly in any era ... What makes last year peculiar to me ... wasn't so much the ISE ... though that was factor-able. It was that there were three giant tempests ... so perfectly placed in both geometry and time - that's what that season was about. A wake up call to a complicit civility ... perhaps pacified into a complacency that bordered on a conceit of discrediting to the real levels of threat, or the dystopian setting post these local-scaled holocausts. By the shear fact that they may have simply been lucky ... for decades? You spin the Roulette wheel enough times, your number's going to occur. When I first brought it up ... I was really more interested in that angle. Whether it was 1,000 or 4,600 ... one thing is for certain, we don't live in an era when anything that comes over technology as mass-dissemination can be trusted. Everything is packaged for economic and/or special interest/political gains .. somehow. But that's all a different course for discussion then vulnerability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: NLSC might notice when a few SRGs go "missing" from GYX. But if anyone plans of moving to the North Woods, we're always looking for new Coops up there! One about 10 miles NW of Allagash village, at 1500' elev., might have some interesting snow totals. That Rocky Mt area always bagged a lot more snow than I had in Fort Kent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now