Drz1111 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 The NAM in particular and to a lesser degree the GFS are signaling elevated convection tomorrow, with SSW flow at 925 advecting in some unstable air. NAM is unsurprisingly stronger and further west with the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 36.4 in Muttontown this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I'll take that map and run with it. After tomorrow looks like our best stretch of spring weather so far. Gfs has us in the 80s from May 1st through the end of its run. That's summer like weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 The past couple of Mays have sucked, anything aside from an omega block pattern will work for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 12z NAM backed off considerably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z NAM backed off considerably went from 2+ inches to about .5 to .75 in one run. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 12Z NAM, particularly the nested NAM, shifted the convective signal out east, more Suffolk Co / ECT / RI than NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 Just now, Drz1111 said: 12Z NAM, particularly the nested NAM, shifted the convective signal out east, more Suffolk Co / ECT / RI than NYC. caved to the other models which were well east all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: That's all NYC needs to go over 5.00" for the 3rd month in a row. Currently sitting at 4.45" for May. This would be the first 3 months in a row since late 2011. some models (GFS and NAM) showing some showers possible for Friday so if tomorrow busts, there is another chance Friday. Interestingly the EURO has nothing at all for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 The 12z RGEM which did great with last weeks storm trended wetter and has 2-3" of rain in many spots with a convective signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 50 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z RGEM which did great with last weeks storm trended wetter and has 2-3" of rain in many spots with a convective signal. Euro is dry-has .5 or less for most and .2 or less HV and Western CT. Interesting battle shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Euro is dry-has .5 or less for most and .2 or less HV and Western CT. Interesting battle shaping up. Yeah we saw the same thing with the globals last storm, which all ended up busting terribly. Convective potential along the warm front is often under modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah we saw the same thing with the globals last storm, which all ended up busting terribly. Convective potential along the warm front is often under modeled. I would tend to agree there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 Wow euro is a flat out torch next week. Obviously it’s far away but Next Thursday would approach 90 in the city verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 18z GFS caught on to the WAA signal tomorrow morning. HRGEM, RGEM, Deep Thunder and RPM have all consistently painted 1-2” for the city. HRRRx looks primed too. Nice lapse rates advect in early with the low level warming on a 50kt LLJ so there should at least be heavy rainers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 37 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 18z GFS caught on to the WAA signal tomorrow morning. HRGEM, RGEM, Deep Thunder and RPM have all consistently painted 1-2” for the city. HRRRx looks primed too. Nice lapse rates advect in early with the low level warming on a 50kt LLJ so there should at least be heavy rainers and a few embedded thunderstorms. RGEM has a 4 inch jack just north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 59degs., or about Normal. Month to date is -4.1. Remainder of April is maybe 1deg. BN. Should end month at -3.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 11 hours ago, Brian5671 said: RGEM has a 4 inch jack just north of NYC Radar is very unimpressive at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 11 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Radar is very unimpressive at the moment Yep, Euro FTW again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 58 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Radar is very unimpressive at the moment It's not snow so most people won't notice but right now a pretty big bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's not snow so most people won't notice but right now a pretty big bust Not for the Euro which was the driest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 0.63" in the park. @bluewave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 On 4/23/2018 at 2:45 PM, bluewave said: NYC just needs .55 on Wednesday to record the first three months in row with 5.00" since 2011. Hard to believe it's that long since it was a more common occurrence 2003-2011. Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Some more showers coming up from the south but doesn't look like much....0.40" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Going to have a hard time cracking .25 here. Radar returns weakening, just some drizzle and very light rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Raining hard in Parsippany, NJ currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Well over an inch of rain here, been pouring most of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Going to have a hard time cracking .25 here. Radar returns weakening, just some drizzle and very light rain so far. The radar has been under done all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Only .35" here. Not the big rainstorm that was advertised, but at least it was enough to give everything a decent watering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The radar has been under done all morning. not here. BDR has less than .25. Same deal by me 5 miles away-light rain/drizzle all day and the dry slot is moving in now...big bust by the meso's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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