STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I would really like to get a good WAA infusion...the lead wave sort of robs us of that so we have to wait for things to reorganize a bit...we would prob get pretty decent snows from the CCB/deformation, but the totals would likely be sub-double digits. But we're not done yet with this obviously, things can still change. We did get closer to wrapping in more moisture from the lead wave this run. Was lead wave stronger or just more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I will embrace the hugger and hug it back. Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 900mb is frigid...like -6C. That would be sfc temps in like the low to mid 20s during precip over interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 850-500 mean RH and H6 omega Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 900mb is frigid...like -6C. That would be sfc temps in like the low to mid 20s during precip over interior. yeah... I realize I mentioned the stuff about needing a colder SD air mass to offset the time of year...and that's still true - but.. heh, low and behold, huh -jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 850-500 mean RH and H6 omega And the H6 temps in that zone are -12C...so getting right into the DGZ up through H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: And the H6 temps in that zone are -12C...so getting right into the DGZ up through H5. Yeah the DGZ is higher up, so need to look at lift and RH there. That would be the similar spots as to last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Huge hit hour 60... This actually reminds me a little of the blizzard last week, big differences being (1) the initial setup is more disjointed due to stronger 1st shortwave, Will has been harping on this, (2) the whole setup closes off further south as currently depicted for maximum impact at our lattitude, and (3) more confluence Plenty of time for all 3 of those factors to correct Great post. This is why I think this ends up more moderate, which is fine. Still time to up ante, but don't think it gets there this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 A couple things on the NAM. 1) It's damn cold in the boundary layer. No problem sticking to the roads even during the day with that look. BDL is like 25ish Wednesday afternoon. 2) I don't like the occluded/filling look underneath us. We get into the CCB but rates overall should diminish through the day as the storm weakens. Would really like to see the double thump of WAA then the CCB so that's sort of a bummer. Normally in late March I'd see #2 and say take the big under... but given how cold things are... I think we're in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 This is an ideal solution as far as 'maximizing what is available' ? That's a pretty narrow corridor of substantive QPF there ... it's durational in nature, too. That looks like a solid 15 hours of a cryo-hosing from that CCB conveyor ... almost cookie-cut collocated over SNE to NYC corridor. Amounts fall off fast N of the Rt 2... But, we still have (easily) acceptable margins of error here - guessing up to 50 or so miles... even at this time lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NAM looks good for 8-12 from interior se Mass up to Boston and over to Worcester.. ne mass too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 One thing is true, other than the initial thump tickling s coast, the dynamics of this are nothing close to previous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah the DGZ is higher up, so need to look at lift and RH there. That would be the similar spots as to last time. We deform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 The KU nature of this system is being well described in the FRH grid... Check out PHL!!!! By the way "KU" just means typology from their reviews - 24000697361 -6610 130616 40990000 30039929251 11513 080525 44990000 36075936430 07912 050423 45990199 42014926639 00609 010421 44990000 48010909141 -0105 980423 42999400 54030959435 10112 983619 39999400 60045988841 -2514 023418 36009794 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: One thing is true, other than the initial thump tickling s coast, the dynamics of this are nothing close to previous storm. No kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: One thing is true, other than the initial thump tickling s coast, the dynamics of this are nothing close to previous storm. Yea, the real show is mid atl this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 The other thing is that the dynamics may be weaker, ...but, when we collocate the 700 and 500mb you get an usually deep easterly flow anomaly for a number of hours, and you can big results from moderate mechanics working on a deep pwat airmass... There's weird ways these things can offset and over(under) produce rather unexpectedly when combining factors in different measures - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The other thing is that the dynamics may be weaker, ...but, when we collocate the 700 and 500mb you get an usually deep easterly flow anomaly for a number of hours, and you can big results from moderate mechanics working on a deep pwat airmass... There's weird ways these things can offset and over(under) produce rather unexpectedly when combining factors in different measures - Yea, air mass is better than the blizzard...true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 What john said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: What john said. Deep erly flow at those levels is good as long as its saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The NAM's been doing this occasionally over the last day and half worth of cycles where it brings the balance of QPF to NYC as wind driven bullet sleet It also had nothing for those areas a couple runs back. Best not to get too invested in the Nam right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Deep erly flow at those levels is good as long as its saturated. Isentropic lift maybe more of a factor this time, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the real show is mid atl this time. Boxing Day but not as big. NYC/NJ jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Isentropic lift maybe more of a factor this time, no? I think overall the dynamics are a bit weaker with the second part. But, if we can get the WAA stuff...the isentropic lift would be rather big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It also had nothing for those areas a couple runs back. Best not to get too invested in the Nam right now. ? the statement was made to draw attention to a plausible outcome? I really don't get 'invested' if by that context you mean depending on a particular model. I mean the NAM is not (obviously) that trusting at this range regardless, but, seeing that sleety solution so often does give some pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 27 minutes ago, radarman said: A good ol fashion late March dry air bust in the valley would make for some fun posts. Fully expecting that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Deep erly flow at those levels is good as long as its saturated. Nammy looks to bring deform dandies Pretty far NW compare to other models Looked like E (C NH) got hit for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Scott's right .. but it model per model, those sigma levels can certainly be deduced for >90% RH ... Climo for this sort of synoptic (talking relative to the NAM solution) evolution ...these don't typically have moisture challenges. Stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ? the statement was made to draw attention to a plausible outcome? I really don't get 'invested' if by that context you mean depending on a particular model. I mean the NAM is not (obviously) that trusting at this range regardless, but, seeing that sleety solution so often does give some pause. I meant trusting it at that range, not that the outcome can't occur. There's a decent amount of mid-level warmth that can't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 gfs better, streak is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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