ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS is NW of 18z but not sure its going to get it done this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I already saw the 00z RGEM/GGEM QPF output for the region, it has the most QPF over the Cape Heaviest snows are usually along the NW QPF gradient...models do not account for mid level dynamics well when diagnosing QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Tick.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe not....just a first guess. Hedging. Will reassess Tues. night. Are you done with school? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm joking with you. I don't know it all....have had some bad busts. In fact, I think believing one knows it all and knowing a great deal are mutually exclusive. I understand. and I get it...it’s not that far off you’re right. But I guess my point was that we really don’t even have any real consensus at this moment. Sure ..I think if it all comes together like it look like it could...then we can have a big hit..the weenie in me can see that and is hoping for that too. Just trying to be patient and wait to see if at 0z or tomorrow morning we have a lil better agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Heaviest snows are usually along the NW QPG gradient...models do not account for mid level dynamics well when diagnosing QPF. Right, they don't handle the mid level 700-500mb deformation banding well enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I understand. and I get it...it’s not that far off you’re right. But I guess my point was that we really don’t even have any real consensus at this moment. Sure ..I think if it all comes together like it look like it could...then we can have a big hit..the weenie in me can see that and is hoping for that too. Just trying to be patient and wait to see if at 0z or tomorrow morning we have a lil better agreement. Def. high uncertainty relative to this lead time...been a theme this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks a bit NW...but the precip shield is really compressed, just like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 00z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Blizz said: 00z GGEM While this graphic doesn't tell the whole story, you can see the improvements made since the 12z runs, more snow means it is a colder solution, and also the least amount of snowfall is further northwest this run then the afternoon run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizz said: 00z GGEM lol the one run where Harwich, MA is the bullseye for snowfall in a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Def. high uncertainty relative to this lead time...been a theme this season. Absolutely...and it sure has been the theme with most every system..except for maybe the Feb 17th System. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That's a pretty good improvement on the GGEM...H5 really looks like it wants to blow up. Anyways, not staying up for Euro. Incremental positive trends tonight so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Ukie looks real nice! Won't say great b.c of the tight gradient evident nw. 10mb stronger and tighter to coast. 983mb. Slower. Confluence needs to ease a smidge As is se mass cape is destroyed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ukie looks real nice! Won't say great b.c of the tight gradient evident nw. 10mb stronger and tighter to coast. 983mb. Slower. Confluence needs to ease a smidge As is se mass cape is destroyed! Could be a Jan 1996 like gradient...I think Methuen had like 5" and I had like 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Could be a Jan 1996 like gradient...I think Methuen had like 5" and I had like 20". There is a wicked gradient setting up on most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Could be a Jan 1996 like gradient...I think Methuen had like 5" and I had like 20". Pull out murphy Bed buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: There is a wicked gradient setting up on most guidance. Yea, its because of the confluence....I buy it. Could also enhance totals near the n edge due to tremendous isnetropic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Pull out murphy Bed buddy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z EURO actually had a banding signal from Kev to ORH to Jeff....but 00z is rolling. My guess is it tics nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Maybe a hair more ridging out ahead of the SW early on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Euro definitely looks like it will come a bit NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Lead SW is dying faster....could be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Well then... that's a massive improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lead SW is dying faster....could be good. Oh boy oh boy oh boy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Only thing I don't like is that H5 is now already closed off of the Delmarva.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Keeps trending slower.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Almost there...bit more trending to do. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 If I changed flights, do I have to get back by Wednesday morning or Tuesday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Nice hit on Euro... steady and sure trends towards bigger impact, warning level metrowest-Boston and southeast verbatim on this run 0z run significantly different from 12z at surface, reflecting differences in where H5 closes and system stacks, which will dictate where between Philly and SNE is hardest hit, and relatedly whether SNE deals with warning limited to southeast or more widespread event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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