EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Cut me back form 10 to 18 to 8 to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Upper low continues to march toward the east coast, with coastal low development noted just east of the Delmarva. With an expected track of the sfc low near the 40N/70W benchmark along with strong deep lift and banded precip, the stage is set or a major winter storm for the area. Colder and drier air is in place when compared to previous events. Nam, and lesser extent GFS along with various ensemble members indicate slight warming aloft for a possible wintry mix over SE LI, and perhaps SE CT through the morning. The storm has slowed a bit, and heavier precip will allow for ample cooling to result in a changeover by afternoon over these eastern locales. Colder air will be pulled down from the north as the storm deepens. Elsewhere, NYC metro including NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley and into SW CT, would typically be in the bulls eye of heavier snow conceptually. Always hard to pinpoint any potential bands, but generally expect 12 to 18 inches across these locations if everything pans out as expected (track, thermal profiles, etc). Temps in the 30s remain steady or fall as the heavier snow commences. Snow ratios look to be at least 10 to 1, and even 13 to 1 or 15 to 1 is possible interior. The western extent of the precip shield should keep amounts well NW down slightly, but a foot or more is possible even up across those locations. Winds will be quite gusty, with 40+ mph at times possible. Blizzard conditions are possible at times, just not quite enough confidence for that upgrade to the hazard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Upper low continues to march toward the east coast, with coastal low development noted just east of the Delmarva. With an expected track of the sfc low near the 40N/70W benchmark along with strong deep lift and banded precip, the stage is set or a major winter storm for the area. Colder and drier air is in place when compared to previous events. Nam, and lesser extent GFS along with various ensemble members indicate slight warming aloft for a possible wintry mix over SE LI, and perhaps SE CT through the morning. The storm has slowed a bit, and heavier precip will allow for ample cooling to result in a changeover by afternoon over these eastern locales. Colder air will be pulled down from the north as the storm deepens. Elsewhere, NYC metro including NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley and into SW CT, would typically be in the bulls eye of heavier snow conceptually. Always hard to pinpoint any potential bands, but generally expect 12 to 18 inches across these locations if everything pans out as expected (track, thermal profiles, etc). Temps in the 30s remain steady or fall as the heavier snow commences. Snow ratios look to be at least 10 to 1, and even 13 to 1 or 15 to 1 is possible interior. The western extent of the precip shield should keep amounts well NW down slightly, but a foot or more is possible even up across those locations. Winds will be quite gusty, with 40+ mph at times possible. Blizzard conditions are possible at times, just not quite enough confidence for that upgrade to the hazard. How long ago did they post that. Alos heavier banding is almost always NW of where modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Fantasyland forecast continues here with NWS calling for 3-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: How long ago did they post that. Alos heavier banding is almost always NW of where modeled 446am. Sorry for the big font wtf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 446am. Sorry for the big font wtf. Yeah they dropped my poi t and click about half hour ago. Think they are starting to drop with the latest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This event has been exhausting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Thats not the updated map not sure why its pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: This event has been exhausting to track. haha yea I’m done done for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: haha yea I’m done done for the season. I need some nape time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I can't wait for summer and the beach. Now we just have to work on getting the temperatures up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Looks like CMC went se a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I need some nape time. golf season is so close. Plus I’m building a driving range and putting green in the backyard. Still, this should be a good event down here. Deff not nam/herpes like but even when we weenie out over them we know that is the extreme solution. No one should take it verbatim. Still like my 10-14 call for swct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It's gonna be fun pulling out that 06z NAM forecast when we get 3" of snow. I bet the euro wins this handily...it's almost never wrong when it is insistent like this. You can see the shorter term guidance all trending toward it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 24 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah this one is getting away from us. I actually feel good about my forecast from last night 3-6 north of HFD and 6-12 south. That was actually my first thought after seeing the models this morning, Ryan's map might actually work out. Felt conservative yesterday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 outside of emass the models backed off the last storm for some areas the morning of....euro had suggested that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Snowing in Trumbull CT with DP of 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I feel really good about the map i put out yesterday afternoon versus consensus at least...Now to verify...ehhhh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmj16725 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Looking like 4-8" around here - not bad for late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'm wearing my Mckayla Maroney face this morning. Not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's gonna be fun pulling out that 06z NAM forecast when we get 3" of snow. I bet the euro wins this handily...it's almost never wrong when it is insistent like this. You can see the shorter term guidance all trending toward it. Probably. But I bet the EURO comes north A TAD with the other guidance moving south by a larger margin. I still cannot believe this will be my THIRD 6 to 12 inch storm this month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Well at least for SW CT all the guidance has consolidated to 8 to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Sticking w/my 6-10 SW / 3-6 rest of state, but even that may be too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Radar right now almost reminds me of an IVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 RAP trend line over the past few runs would indicate an Albany JP. So there's that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I feel really good about the map i put out yesterday afternoon versus consensus at least...Now to verify...ehhhh.... Jay, those are big shoes to fill ! hope you are right, what stress with these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, White Rain said: I wouldn’t be shocked at all if we only see 1-2” here, beware the dry air. Hope we get more but not even counting on the 5” expected. 26/10 here. Plenty of dry air to overcome, still brokenclouds and bright to my NW in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 RRGW (Rapid refresh gone wild) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: RAP trend line over the past few runs would indicate an Albany JP. So there's that lol It was consistent with practically nothing then went crazy at 9z. Strange model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Thunderblizzard said: It was consistent with practically nothing then went crazy at 9z. Strange model. Nah just out of its range. Case in point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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