• Member Statistics

    15,690
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BillDodson
    Newest Member
    BillDodson
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
stormtracker

March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Damn..maybe Euro wasn't off it's rocker like we thought?  3k is a mauling at 31 hour

It’s pretty sick. Like some 2-3” per four rates lol. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, stormtracker said:

Damn...31-36 hours on the 3k NAM...wow

Well that pretty much tips hat to euro 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lwx going weird route with watch/warnings. I mea. This just looks confusing to me. Public will have no idea. 

664AB0A6-BFEA-46C7-8C27-FB017BEBADB8.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

New WSWs up.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
429 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

MDZ003-VAZ028-WVZ051-052-201630-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0018.180320T1000Z-180320T2200Z/
/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0006.180320T1000Z-180321T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0004.180321T0400Z-180322T0000Z/
Washington-Frederick VA-Morgan-Berkeley-
429 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation changing to snow this morning, which
  could be heavy at times. Snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches
  are expected today, along with a light glaze of ice. Additional
  heavy snow is possible late tonight through Wednesday afternoon,
  with additional snow accumulations of 5 or more inches
  possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Washington. In Virginia, Frederick. In
  West Virginia, Morgan and Berkeley.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 8 PM EDT this
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from late tonight through
  Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
429 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

MDZ501-502-WVZ050-055-501>504-201630-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.180320T0900Z-180321T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0004.180321T0000Z-180321T2100Z/
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Hampshire-
Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
429 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected today with snow accumulations of 5 to
  10 inches. Additional heavy snow is possible from Tuesday
  evening through Wednesday afternoon, with additional snow
  accumulations of 5 or more inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 8 PM EDT this
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from this evening through
  Wednesday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LWX is implying that the mountains get warnings about storm 1 and everyone is on watch for storm 2.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, arlwx said:

LWX is implying that the mountains get warnings about storm 1 and everyone is on watch for storm 2.

Storm 2 starts in like 20 hrs just issue the warnings already. Plus it’s  going to be a mess after 12pm. Think is really random. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro for DCA:

Light rain beginning soon changing to moderate rain by sunrise.  On and off rain this morning and into early afternoon with approximately 0.5" by 2 PM.

Wintry mix beginning mid-afternoon and continuing into evening with surface temperatures just above freezing and 850 temperatures falling to just below freezing; approximately 0.6" of total precipitation before changing to light rain or freezing drizzle around 9 PM. 

Snow beginning by 3 AM Wednesday and continuing into early evening.  Surface temperatures near or below freezing until at least mid-afternoon generally in the 30-33 degree range.  850 temperatures well below 0C (-4 to -6 during bulk of precipitation).  1000-500 hPa Thicknesses falling from 541 to 534. ~0.9" of precipitation likely all snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's just a total beatdown.  How is this happening??  I was sure the Euro was drunk
Will by i don't care thread be retired?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Snowman. said:

Ferrier from last nights 00z Run

5ab0c9cb5db49_Ferrier00z.thumb.png.d3ed96c298e628f7b518a18230db02a7.png

 

 

Ferrier current 06z run.. Boom

5ab0c9f74cefb_Ferrier06z.thumb.png.ff7293e3ceae46a4e87aace082261101.png

 

That is a pummeling. A bit more falls beyond that frame for eastern areas. Northern NJ went from about 15" to practically nothing in one run lol.

And it looks like Mount Holly weighted heavily the 0z NAMs based off their new expected snowfall map this morning. Something gonna bust, or need adjusting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The NAM twins suggest that late afternoon, early evening (rush hour) may be a time to watch for a heavier band of precip to pull northward from roughly DC up to the PA line. At this time we see the leftover energy from the closed low to our west that breaks down rotate through our region. May equate to a quick inch or two of snow and/or a heavier burst of sleet depending on location and temps.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is now colder with wave 1.  Heavy snow into DC at 18z

Also more aggressive with snowfall for the region with 6-10 region wide and pockets of 12 inches.

eta: My bad, had wrong snowfall map up. Snowdepth change shows 4 to 8 region wide with some heavier pockets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Also more aggressive with snowfall for the region with 6-10 region wide and pockets of 12 inches.

Yup..I'd probably go 4 to 8 based on everything I'm seeing..of course discounting the crazy Euro solution

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup..I'd probably go 4 to 8 based on everything I'm seeing..of course discounting the crazy Euro solution

See my edit. Freaking rookie/weenie mistake on my part. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

This isn’t confusing or anything lol. 

F6F47BC3-B0E8-4059-85C4-A9AA3B93206A.jpeg

I think you’re making it confusing. LWX is treating it as two different storms. Warnings and advisories for some today as those places will mix and snow. Watches for everyone for tomorrow that will upgrade to warnings for those who fit the criteria of a warning, probably later today. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I assume LWX anticipating only minor impacts to the afternoon rush, perhaps because of the potential decrease in precip intensity? Otherwise they’d presumably issue winter weather advisories given the guidance showing temperature profiles supportive of mixed precip for this afternoon/evening for the DC and Baltimore metros.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, mappy said:

I think you’re making it confusing. LWX is treating it as two different storms. Warnings and advisories for some today as those places will mix and snow. Watches for everyone for tomorrow that will upgrade to warnings for those who fit the criteria of a warning, probably later today. 

Well all models showing lots of sleet here and even snow now. Don’t see why not like rest of offices just upgrade now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Well all models showing lots of sleet here and even snow now. Don’t see why not like rest of offices just upgrade now. 

you seemed obsessed with this idea of a warning.  1) they don't want to get it wrong 2) plenty of time to wait for 12z models 3) they really don't want to get it wrong.  Warnings trigger all kinds of actions within the counties.  Those guys at LWX know what they are doing so I wouldn't sweat it. When its time they will issue it because there is no advantage not to. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.