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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker

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1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

This isn’t confusing or anything lol. 

F6F47BC3-B0E8-4059-85C4-A9AA3B93206A.jpeg

I think you’re making it confusing. LWX is treating it as two different storms. Warnings and advisories for some today as those places will mix and snow. Watches for everyone for tomorrow that will upgrade to warnings for those who fit the criteria of a warning, probably later today. 

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I assume LWX anticipating only minor impacts to the afternoon rush, perhaps because of the potential decrease in precip intensity? Otherwise they’d presumably issue winter weather advisories given the guidance showing temperature profiles supportive of mixed precip for this afternoon/evening for the DC and Baltimore metros.

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15 minutes ago, mappy said:

I think you’re making it confusing. LWX is treating it as two different storms. Warnings and advisories for some today as those places will mix and snow. Watches for everyone for tomorrow that will upgrade to warnings for those who fit the criteria of a warning, probably later today. 

Well all models showing lots of sleet here and even snow now. Don’t see why not like rest of offices just upgrade now. 

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8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Well all models showing lots of sleet here and even snow now. Don’t see why not like rest of offices just upgrade now. 

you seemed obsessed with this idea of a warning.  1) they don't want to get it wrong 2) plenty of time to wait for 12z models 3) they really don't want to get it wrong.  Warnings trigger all kinds of actions within the counties.  Those guys at LWX know what they are doing so I wouldn't sweat it. When its time they will issue it because there is no advantage not to. 

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14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Well all models showing lots of sleet here and even snow now. Don’t see why not like rest of offices just upgrade now. 

Don’t worry, it’s still going to snow if LWX doesn’t upgrade to warnings right now. Patience they will

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4 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Nam 3k jackpots my backyard.  Can I cash in my chips now?

Yes and mine as well which I am grateful. However, we are trying to keep this thread clean for storm analysis during storm mode.  Let's try and respect the process of keeping the MBY posts in the other thread so the mods have less work and more time to enjoy the ride as well.  Many thanks sir. 

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First thoughts after seeing all 6z guidance. 

There is an epic beat down coming!  Guidance has caved to the euro. Northern and western areas will do better today. The metros will catch up tonight and tomorrow. Everyone should get over 6" and some much more. 

The Nams have been better the last year since the upgrade but my god did they struggle with this one. And they still are btw just not for us. But they to off on a tangent from all other guidance upstream from us causing an unnecessary panic in NJ and southeast New England right now. They just can't get a hold of this one past 24 hours and have shotgun sprayed solutions all over gods green earth every 6 hours. 

All other guidance is now in total agreement with the general evolution and only differ on meso scale features like banding. The ccb looks legit!  Buckle up here we go! 

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

The NAM twins suggest that late afternoon, early evening (rush hour) may be a time to watch for a heavier band of precip to pull northward from roughly DC up to the PA line. At this time we see the leftover energy from the closed low to our west that breaks down rotate through our region. May equate to a quick inch or two of snow and/or a heavier burst of sleet depending on location and temps.

Just noticed this when reviewing the models... EURO/GFS/NAM 12k/3k all seem to be in agreement of an 1pm/2pm ish switchover for DC to sleet or heavy snow... before we go into a lull that may never be a complete lull. Gonna be a mess for rush hour this afternoon if it is heavy enough. Definitely interesting.

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