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Bostonseminole

March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc

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6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

13z hrrr seems to have initialized pretty well with current radar. Rather than coalescing bands, it just slides them east and weakens them.

Time to nowcast, meso model time has passed

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The trees have that wet base on them around here and now the lighter slightly drier stuff is sticking to them.  Temps are still at 32 so hopefully that drops soon.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Huh? The bands are merging overhead 

The first one vaporized faster than the hair on your head. The following one subbied it, but hopefully for you that one makes a better push westward.

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

That's exactly what meso models are for.

None of them are going to be able to handle banding in the middle of a storm. I've played that game before and usually ends up being a waste of time. Satellite and radar are already here.

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Poor Kevin sucking fumes.  Ginxy naked!   Not too bad here IMBY - just to the west of the yellow returns in the eastern band.  Almost 6" total so far.

DeathBands_2018-03-13.PNG

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There are three observations of 8+ inches of snow already. North Dighton, MA (8.2/9:38am), Acushnet, MA (8.0/9:45am), and Burrillville, RI (8.0/9:12am). It seems like most of interior SE MA and RI have snowfall accumulations between 4-8 inches atm.

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Just now, dendrite said:

The first one vaporized faster than the hair on your head. The following one subbied it, but hopefully for you that one makes a better push westward.

Animate OKX radar . West is moving east and east one moving west. Pivot point 

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1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

HRRR is a nowcasting model. 

I have no faith in any of the meso models to decide banding during or just before a storm. Good for a general idea. Really that's all. This storm has always been about where the bands decide to park their ass. I think one would get a much better idea from looking at radar than the HRRR at this point.

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Any trees that were barely hanging on are going down today. 

30 and absolutely ripping here in newburyport. Power was pulsing. Blasting the heat for now

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2 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

About the only thing it's good for

Sort of a misconception. 

We frequently harp on only using it to see a general trend over several runs instead of individually. That would make its' value as a nowcasting model nearly zero.

Yes, fair to look at. I just think there's a lot more value in nowcasting more traditionally right now. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Animate OKX radar . West is moving east and east one moving west. Pivot point 

I know. But that’s the 2nd band moving west out of RI. The first one dissipated. There’s no major band behind that 2nd one so it should stay together and make a better westward push.

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1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

I have no faith in any of the meso models to decide banding during or just before a storm. Good for a general idea. Really that's all. This storm has always been about where the bands decide to park their ass. I think one would get a much better idea from looking at radar than the HRRR at this point.

I mean... you're not wrong. 

It's useful for nowcasting in several scenarios, but I'm not sure banding nor'easters are one of them.

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