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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A few will.

I love how some question how a track so far east can bury e sne, but if a death band gets pegged over Mitch, people just fawn over it in awe lol

yea I didn't understand that post from him. I know of many times when we get pounded from offshore storms, especially with a CCB like that, its not just banding and we are talking sub 970 with Northern stream energy phasing in. Still think 6-12 CT river to RI Border 12+ east of there

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Have you looked?

He has those fronto maps on TT now so he doesn't have to wait for a text from Shabbs. Of course that's just H7 so the banding could be a little west of the best H7 fronto. IOW, the NAM has it west of him. lol

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People can't have it both ways...its too far east for us, yet no one questions the deformation setting up over the Berkshires.

Fraud logic. 

I could see a massive one to my east (hopefully you get in on that), buries coast, and another , smaller one to the west of me, that helps out CT.

Some lighter, but broader stuff in NY and VT look nice

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He has those fronto maps on TT now so he doesn't have to wait for a text from Shabbs. Of course that's just H7 so the banding could be a little west of the best H7 fronto. IOW, the NAM has it west of him. lol

Do the best VV line up just west of the frontogenesis?

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He has those fronto maps on TT now so he doesn't have to wait for a text from Shabbs. Of course that's just H7 so the banding could be a little west of the best H7 fronto. IOW, the NAM has it west of him. lol

I saw nice banding over the E 2/3 of CT. Fluff factor 1-2” per hour stuff 

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NeonPeon

NeonPeon

Posted
Posted

I like where I'm at, but I think banding will favor just east and just west of here, and its just starting to show in the models.  Unless we are absolutely bombed under the thick of it, and its not banding much, these things that drop tons over the canal and have ocean enhancement, and then have a midlevel band band further west inevitably select the narragansett bay for their subsidence.  Nothing to complain about, I'm really excited for this as a likely winter send-off.  Driving up 95 to portland after this last storm was a fun time, and I want in on some of that, less the widespread tree snapping.

I'm guessing 9 inches here, with lower ratios in the initial wet thump, and not as generous a reacharound as elsewhere.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Do the best VV line up just west of the frontogenesis?

Sometimes the best forcing with those bands end up higher up...H5-H7. I'll have to look at BUFKIT later as I have to head out. I'm sure Scoot can explain it more and better.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Sometimes the best forcing with those bands end up higher up...H5-H7. I'll have to look at BUFKIT later as I have to head out. I'm sure Scoot can explain it more and better.

Usually just a warm side of that IIRC. But as you said, probably want H7-H5 avg fronto to really nail those bands down. 

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NeonPeon

NeonPeon

Posted
Posted
Just now, JC-CT said:

a bit self-contradictory unless you hate snow.

No - I love snow, but I've lived here long enough to know that noreasters almost never favor narragansett bay.  All things being equal, this area will almost always underperform areas nearby.  It's not confirmation bias either, it's just geography... statistically borne out. 

So I like generally where I am.  Warning level events this time of year, especially ones with this much upside is playing with the houses money.  Hoping to jackpot here is a recipe for disappointment. 

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People like to generalize impact by track...but it doesn't always work. Circulations range in size...I can see how the big band would set up west if the circulation is huge...but we need to stop with the too far east crap.

Good example of that was the lingering steady snow after last storm stacked. Elongation of the ULL made all the difference. Everything is unique. 

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