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Rtd208

March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm Observations

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12 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Important point to keep in mind.  While many are focusing on the snow/liquid ratio, remember, that only affects snow depth, which to me is more of an "elegance" issue.  With regard to impact on things like snow removal (force/energy needed for it) and the weight of the snow on trees and roofs, the same mass of snow falls regardless of the ratio, which is why I like using the 10:1 maps, as the conversion to mass is simple (you have no idea of mass with Kuchera).  Same thing was true on 3/14 last year with the sleet - the mass of frozen precip was exactly as forecast - just didn't look as pretty, but was just as impactful.  

So then post the QPF map, not a map that shows an unrealistic scenario. I'm seeing way too many people posting 10:1 maps for NYC and acting like 12"+ is likely. Ratios are more like 5:1 or 6:1 for most the storm.

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10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Thanks for the pep talk. And for not losing patience with us. Some of us are just regular folks. I'm taking a lot of heat from the locals. Wife wants to go into work. Not everyone has the luxury of understanding bosses. 

I think there is reason to worry, current temps are warmer than they were supposed to be. It's 36/37 when it should've been 34. 

This has that bust smell to it that I've seen in the past unfortunately.

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9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

By the way, it's 35F and snowing lightly to moderately - been doing so since maybe 5 am (was light alternating rain/snow from 2 to 5 am) and we have about 3/4" on the grass to show for it.  Ready for the big show to start in about 2 hours.  

Not being facetious but actually want to know how to read the signals if we're "nowcasting". 

Where is the big show coming from if it's still anticipated late morning?  Don't see much on radar south or east of MD/DE.  Wouldn't/shouldn't we see something organizing on radar by now to our south?

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think there is reason to worry, current temps are warmer than they were supposed to be. It's 36/37 when it should've been 34. 

This has that bust smell to it that I've seen in the past unfortunately.

Most models I saw had these temps at this time 

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1 minute ago, jr461 said:

Not being facetious but actually want to know how to read the signals if we're "nowcasting". 

Where is the big show coming from if it's still anticipated late morning?  Don't see much on radar south or east of MD/DE.  Wouldn't/shouldn't we see something organizing on radar by now to our south?

No it will basically blossom right on top of us and pivot through once the low gets going

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think there is reason to worry, current temps are warmer than they were supposed to be. It's 36/37 when it should've been 34. 

This has that bust smell to it that I've seen in the past unfortunately.

I know but we will be taken to the woodshed for suggesting it so.....until it becomes obvious we'll go with the experts, who are still saying lots of snow. I don't know as much as a lot of the folks around here, and I admit it. 

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

No it will basically blossom right on top of us and pivot through once the low gets going

This type of posts always happen with snowstorms... relax everyone everything is going as planned!!

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

No it will basically blossom right on top of us and pivot through once the low gets going

Gotcha. thanks.

And since we're in the obs thread, I'm about 20-25 miles NW of Manhattan, right at the Rockland border.  Steady light snow all morning.  About 3/4" on non-paved surfaces. Just wet on my very quiet but pre-treated side street.

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Just now, allgame830 said:

This type of posts always happen with snowstorms... relax everyone everything is going as planned!!

My wife won't hear of it. She's going in. I guess I will drive her I have a new AWD Traverse. 

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

My wife won't hear of it. She's going in. I guess I will drive her I have a new AWD Traverse. 

Ok I hear ya! My wife wouldn’t listen either. Be careful!!

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19 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

By the way, it's 35F and snowing lightly to moderately - been doing so since maybe 5 am (was light alternating rain/snow from 2 to 5 am) and we have about 3/4" on the grass to show for it.  Ready for the big show to start in about 2 hours.  

RU there is no accumulation at all just a few miles from you. Nothing. My wife is more worried about her cells than the weather. Gonna drive her in, it's only S plainfield.

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12 minutes ago, jr461 said:

Not being facetious but actually want to know how to read the signals if we're "nowcasting". 

Where is the big show coming from if it's still anticipated late morning?  Don't see much on radar south or east of MD/DE.  Wouldn't/shouldn't we see something organizing on radar by now to our south?

What the radar looks like now likely is not a good indication of what lies ahead. The radar presentation should improve fairly quickly as the storm takes shape and intensifies. From the SPC:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0110.html

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Mix, but mostly rain in RVC (working at Mercy Medical center) so I'm right at the southern state parkway for a reference on how north/south I am.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

What the radar looks like now likely is not a good indication of what lies ahead. The radar presentation should improve fairly quickly as the storm takes shape and intensifies. From the SPC:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0110.html

OK, so this is going happen pretty quickly (as opposed to those storms that develop/mature further south and move north with precip already having blossomed).  Thanks

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17 minutes ago, jr461 said:

Not being facetious but actually want to know how to read the signals if we're "nowcasting". 

Where is the big show coming from if it's still anticipated late morning?  Don't see much on radar south or east of MD/DE.  Wouldn't/shouldn't we see something organizing on radar by now to our south?

You’re not crazy, stupid or inexperienced. There isnt much there at this point.

Supposed to develop. Take from that what you want.

If you read situations well, understand that this forum, experts included, want it to work. There is a slight bias for that “want.” Right now, looking at what the radar, the temps, and precip intensity, you are right to be worried if you wanted a huge snowstorm.

Just like in the last storm when I made the bold prediction that NYC would get nothing looking at the rain/snow line. Sometimes you have to look at what is happening...not what was supposed to happen.

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If youre going to call out experts for having a bias, prepare to back that statement up with facts and scientific data. Thanks. 

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1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

You’re not crazy, stupid or inexperienced. There isnt much there at this point.

Supposed to develop. Take from that what you want.

If you read situations well, understand that this forum, experts included, want it to work. There is a slight bias for that “want.” Right now, looking at what the radar, the temps, and precip intensity, you are right to be worried if you wanted a huge snowstorm.

Just like in the last storm when I made the bold prediction that NYC would get nothing looking at the rain/snow line. Sometimes you have to look at what is happening...not what was supposed to happen.

You can't go by the last storm. NYC wasn't supposed to get snow

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