Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I don't get the sne (or any region) hate. Everywhere but my yard is dead to me. I don't even care about 87storms or Kenny or gym and they all live close to me. Rule #1 is its a backyard sport. If my yard fails then everyone is a no good loser even if they get 3 feet. You monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 06Z NAM's backslid somewhat especially the 12 K. 12K lags at 500's and has a slightly slower solution. Slower transfer from the primary in the lakes to the coastal thus we have a much weaker coastal through our region with a track farther off the shore and not tucked in. 50-75 miles shift with the snow NEward where DC/Balt are just in the fringes of trace amounts. Extreme NE MD and Northern Del still see 6+ inches. 3K is slower with the deepening of the coastal as we see some degradation at 500 mb. Baltimore is on the fringes (DC out of it) but it looks to be a good hit on the central eastern shore and north with 6+ inch totals showing up. And snow is still ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 06Z is now in for our Wed. storm. If you saw the 00Z then you have a good idea what the 06Z shows. Some minor changes here and there but for the most part it is a carbon copy. Snow is confined Balt north and east with 6+ inches showing up in NE MD (congrats @mappy) and NEward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: 06Z is now in for our Wed. storm. If you saw the 00Z then you have a good idea what the 06Z shows. Some minor changes here and there but for the most part it is a carbon copy. Snow is confined Balt north and east with 6+ inches showing up in NE MD (congrats @mappy) and NEward. Wish I could will it to shift just 60 miles SW. At least next week is still in the game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Wish I could will it to shift just 60 miles SW. At least next week is still in the game... Fair Oaks? Down around DC? Have some thoughts on the storm, which I might share later if i have the time, as to why I think we could potentially see an expansion of the snow south and west. But I think DC is at about the limit of that possible expansion at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I’d take the CIPS analog mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 other than the one weekend cmc run, i haven't paid attention to this. and won't really have time to track it either. sick with a head cold and have an insanely busy work week ahead of me. will have to rely on waterboy for updates. guess its a good thing i requested a laptop from IT to borrow all week to take home in the evenings, potentially could be a snowy wednesday for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 06z extended RGEM cut back a little in NE MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just some thoughts on the storm this Wed. and the possible impacts for DC/Balt. At this point I am sure most are of the opinion that any somewhat meaningful snowfall will be confined to extreme NE MD at best with the cities possible getting some mercy flakes or trace. I am of the opinion though that the odds are somewhat favorable that in fact we do better then current models are projecting. Obviously Baltimore would have better chances then DC, its just the nature of the beast with the type of system we are dealing with where extra latitude is a factor. Normally when it comes to Miller B's we are SOL as the transfer from the primary over to the coastal occurs through or even north of our region. But if there is any setup we are going to score in it is this one where we see the secondary low pressure initiate far to our south as opposed to the typical off the VA/MD waters we see. This in my mind is important because we are giving the coastal low that much more time to develop as it runs up the coast to our region as opposed to hoping for a 6 hr bombegenisis directly off our coast. The big reason we are seeing the NE solutions for snowfall is that we see a lackadaisical transfer from the primary low in the lakes to our coastal low making it just a touch too late for our region as CCB (cold conveyor belt) snows form just as the coastal is exiting our region. Now the big thing to watch for in regards to the progression of the transfer is the strength of the lows (lakes and coastal). We originally start with the stronger primary (lakes) and with a much weaker secondary (coastal). Now as the transfer occurs the primary will continually weaken and the secondary will continue to gain strength. Only once we see the secondary become the stronger feature will we begin to see CCB snows start developing. And at this point even with the farther south low initiation we see such a slow transfer that we don't see this flip with the lows until the coastal is off our shores as it then begins to rapidly intensify. Again this is what we typically see when it comes to Miller B's which is pretty much a no win scenario for the cities. So this is very plausible. But from flipping through a bunch of models and their different runs I do believe they all may be moving towards a slightly different solution which in fact would put the DC/Balt corridor in play. Now I have to speak in generalities here because the models have been somewhat jumpy and back in forth with the features in play so I am not going to be citing specifics. But the general broad overall trends suggest to me we may actually see a quicker deepening of our coastal low farther south then currently projected. This would hopefully mean that we see the coastal surpass the primary in strength sooner/farther south allowing the CCB to begin forming sooner and in time for our region. Now part of my reasoning involves the Meso models which I tend to shy away from at longer ranges. But in this case they may be appropriate. What I have seen is that generally they seem to be more aggressive then the globals on a quicker strengthening of our coastal farther south. Now mesos can get a little wonky at range on occasion as well as be overly aggressive with explosive development of lows. But with what I am concerned with and/or looking at is the initial early stages of the development of the low so I am fairly comfortable with that. And in fact they may have a better handle on that period of time with their finer resolution then the globals. Now all that said, I would still normally keep my mouth shut because I have been burned far to often by them. But when I now am starting to see some small hints from the globals to a quicker intensification farther south then that gets my attention. If the current general setup stays roughly the same on the models (never a sure thing) and in fact we do see a quicker intensification of the coastal (as the mesos suggest) then I have to believe at least Balt, if not DC as well, actually is in play for something more then what the models currently suggest. I for one will be watching the globals with interest the next couple runs to see if they actually start noticeably picking up on this quicker intensification instead of just hinting at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z NAM looks to be closer to 0Z than 6z. Better tilt to the trof and more interaction with the Canadian ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z NAM looks to be closer to 0Z than 6z. Better tilt to the trof and more interaction with the Canadian ULL. I wish Temps were a little better, we look good for a little WAA but the surface is pretty tourchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, LP08 said: I wish Temps were a little better, we look good for a little WAA but the surface is pretty tourchy Looking at 39hr we will probably see a much closer pass to the coast of the low. Temps cooperating of course hopefully we should see a further expansion westward of the snow field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at 39hr we will probably see a much closer pass to the coast of the low. Temps cooperating of course hopefully we should see a further expansion westward of the snow field. Certainly at 42, coastal is a little further south and primary a little weaker. Should be a close run. 45...stronger coastal, better western precip field. Too bad its the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Less separation between the primary and secondary we should hopefully see a quicker transfer. Thinking this will end up half decent for our region compared to prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Definitely a better look at 45 hrs on the 500's. eta: compared to the 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I'm totally in for next week, but I'm not going to buy into whatever the nam is selling this run for tomorrow night and Wednesday morning. But it is at night, trends are encouraging, hey, is that a LP in eastern NC?, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Wow its close at 54 as 850's crash. Maybe Baltimore and NE. 500's took a nice step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: We joke about the NAM but it can be a useful tool...I like what I see on this run. Certainly more than 06z. It certainly made a lot of necessary steps to get it closer to us. More interaction with the ULL causing the Trof to tilt better, quicker transfer with the weaker primary, ect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NAM doing its best to keep everyone BWI N and E interested.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NE MD, SE PA crew will love the NAM. CCB's are fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NAM is horrifying out this way. We get to watch the east score again while we are under partly cloudy skies. The day 7 thing better verify at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wasn’t bad at all and it’s the direction we need to go in. Really want to see the globals tick at 12z too to feel like we’re truly in the game. For now, northerners everywhere rejoice Looks awesome for those of us around Baltimore, but also very dicey with no room for error. But the trend is definitely in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Wow. BWI: 8.5", DCA 1.1" if NAM were correct. Quite the gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 That low on the 3K Nam is off the Southern OBX. Eta: Obviously a good spot for the primary to take over and intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Good God... almost a foot of snow here. 16" for @mappy if ratios are 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Fozz said: Good God... almost a foot of snow here. 16" for @mappy if ratios are 10:1. This feels like the shifts are not done yet as @showmethesnow indicated being a possibility. I like where this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAM is horrifying out this way. We get to watch the east score again while we are under partly cloudy skies. The day 7 thing better verify at this point. No need to be sad since there's no way in hell that it verifies like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3k NAM ups the ante (still snowing NE of Baltimore) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Even the Ferrier says 2 - 6" from BWI into the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Fozz said: No need to be sad since there's no way in hell that it verifies like that It’s a Miller B. There’s a good chance that it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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