Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[weatherwiz]

I think those snowfall rates are underestimated 

[wx2fish]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wouldn't go that far yet...just trying this revere psychology thing since it normally works out well for the whiners here.

I think atleast down here were gonna get clipped by the CCB later. May not make it past CON but well see. I don't see any reason to lower things for atleast the southern part of the state 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Silly comments being made today

That's what happens when the bar starts out high out of the gate.

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

That's what happens when the bar starts out high out of the gate.

 

I've only got 15" so far. Pretty disappointed, to state the obvious.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

I think atleast down here were gonna get clipped by the CCB later. May not make it past CON but well see. I don't see any reason to lower things for atleast the southern part of the state 

Yeah every model has the CCB east of here now. We’ll see how it goes. MHT-DAW still looks great. 

[dendrite]

Just now, dryslot said:

That's what happens when the bar starts out high out of the gate.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think those snowfall rates are underestimated 

They are, its 2-4/hr type stuff.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wouldn't go that far yet...just trying this revere psychology thing since it normally works out well for the whiners here.

MPM has a house up North, so now, W MA and parts of NH and Maine are guaranteed never to jackpot. 

[TalcottWx]

Death band New Haven ORH to LWM I think at 7h

[eyewall]

The 12z Euro confirms high bust potential here as expected

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I've only got 15" so far. Pretty disappointed, to state the obvious.

More for up here, GYX had 18-24" yesterday and i really couldn't justify that when most guidance had 12-18".

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

More for up here, GYX had 18-24" yesterday and i really couldn't justify that when most guidance had 12-18".

It has been 10-20" for like 5 days now. I never understood the higher forecasts.

 

[Johnno]

Road went from wet to white in 10 minutes ripping 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

MPM has a house up North, so now, W MA and parts of NH and Maine are guaranteed never to jackpot. 

Even before MPM came up here, We don't usually jack any storm, I certainly don't remember jacking any, That's not what i'm about anyways.

[subdude]

I'm in FIT and just drove by WHDH 7 , WABC 5, and WNBC 4,  mobile units. lol 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It has been 10-20" for like 5 days now. I never understood the higher forecasts.

 

One met had a vision at GYX i guess........lol

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

One met had a vision at GYX i guess........lol

Chris?

[WxBlue]

It's a bit early to be calling bust for NH and ME... especially in coastal areas. HRRR is actually looking decent for at least 10" here to PWM. I know it's not 20" exciting, but it's right on point with most models coming into the event.

[tunafish]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's what happens when the bar starts out high out of the gate.

 

Agreed.  I try not to get my hopes up in any event, and the seasoned hobbyists (such as yourself) are always level headed which helps with that, but I was admittedly rattled by the latest HRRRs.  

[WxBlue]

Just now, tunafish said:

Agreed.  I try not to get my hopes up in any event, and the seasoned hobbyists (such as yourself) are always level headed which helps with that, but I was admittedly rattled by the latest HRRRs.  

That's understandable after seeing 18-24" hype runs from NAM, but I always thought it was a bit over the board. 

Also, remember it's still snowing over us past the end of HRRR.

[dryslot]

Just now, tunafish said:

Agreed.  I try not to get my hopes up in any event, and the seasoned hobbyists (such as yourself) are always level headed which helps with that, but I was admittedly rattled by the latest HRRRs.  

I actually find the HRRR to be inconsistent from run to run on most storms, So i don't hold it to a higher level as others on here.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

I actually find the HRRR to be inconsistent from run to run on most storms, So i don't hold it to a higher level as others on here.

It's based on radar, isn't it?

Synoptic ain't its thing.

[dryslot]

Just now, WxBlue said:

That's understandable after seeing 18-24" hype runs from NAM, but I always thought it was a bit over the board. 

Also, remember it's still snowing over us past the end of HRRR.

There's the first problem, The Nam, I don't but it much either, But the Euro had been pretty steady thru out it last several runs, The GFS finally at 12z caught up qpf wise even though the thermals are garbage but you can look past that up here anyways

[tamarack]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Even before MPM came up here, We don't usually jack any storm, I certainly don't remember jacking any, That's not what i'm about anyways.

Considering that the death band in Nemo was about 200 miles to your south, your area did pretty well in that one - almost 3X what we had here.  Our nearest thing to a jack was Feb 2009 - right in the group reporting 24-27".

Abundant reports of TSN in the area around PHL, so the LP itself must really be cranking up.  Maybe so much that it scoots east too soon?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

There's the first problem, The Nam, I don't but it much either, But the Euro had been pretty steady thru out it last several runs, The GFS finally at 12z caught up qpf wise even though the thermals are garbage but you can look past that up here anyways

The NAM is good for one thing and one thing only during the winter - miller As.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It's based on radar, isn't it?

Synoptic ain't its thing.

I'm sure it is, But its an extrapolation of time going forward past current.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

I'm sure it is, But its an extrapolation of time going forward past current.

Well yeah lol. I'm saying, a model based on radar assimilation for a short period of time in a limited geographic area isn't exactly going to nail down h5.

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

The NAM is good for one thing and one thing only during the winter - miller As.

Which basically, This one kind of is, And it was terrible with it in my eyes, It has more waffles then IHOP.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Which basically, This one kind of is, And it was terrible with it in my eyes, It has more waffles then IHOP.

I don't think it was a miller A in the context that the northern stream was of utmost importance in determining the final outcome.

IHOP is terribly delicious.

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Well yeah lol. I'm saying, a model based on radar assimilation for a short period of time in a limited geographic area isn't exactly going to nail down h5.

I find it either over/under gives radar estimates up here, Nothing to do with what a model run had @ H5