Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[dryslot]

We just get done talking about the OTS solutions and the 12z ICON does just that.........................

[moneypitmike]

Track and p-types aside.....I've put myself in a position where I'm going to be at Pit2 for this.  Let's hope for the 00z EC solution.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We just get done talking about the OTS solutions and the 12z ICON does just that.........................

The OTS more NW track debate kind of reminds me of Sandy ... that system was trying to go out to sea in many model cycles when that -NAO was also in play... 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We just get done talking about the OTS solutions and the 12z ICON does just that.........................

It uses the northern stream as a kicker lol. Its still on the BM but no development between the streams whatsoever.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It uses the northern stream as a kicker lol. Its still on the BM but no development between the streams whatsoever.

Yup, Misses the phase, The 12z GFS won't............

[Hoth]

GFS so far appears to have more interaction with the northern stream relative to 6z.

[ineedsnow]

Gfs about to go beast mode

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Gfs about to go beast mode

Dare I ask where/when?

[dryslot]

Going to be a closer to the coast solution it seems, The trough is a couple tics to the west of 06z run.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Gfs about to go beast mode

Folks keep doing this...

I've noticed this all winter long... When these model runs start churning out.. they get to hour 18...64 in there, and it's "more phasing earlier on" ..."this run is going to be much better..." ... "about to go ballistic" ... etc..

Then, there's like an odd gap of low post frequency that lasts for 10 or 15 minutes... maybe a 1/2 hour, before me, or Will or Scott or someone comes in and rescues everyone with reasons why this run isn't believable and can be discarded.

Don't stop doing this... it's awesome entertainment - 'course, this run probably really will be better, but it's still true.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Holy moly.

[JBinStoughton]

15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Track and p-types aside.....I've put myself in a position where I'm going to be at Pit2 for this.  Let's hope for the 00z EC solution.

What are Pit and Pit2?

[dryslot]

12z GGEM is a whiff right.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Perfect evolution for w zones. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS maybe a tick SE, but a good hit interior before dryslot. 

[dryslot]

That's a wicked dryslot over SNE on the 12z GFS after a good thump.

[CoastalWx]

That's a nice western CT western MA mid level look.

[mahk_webstah]

I think the Canadians and the Germans I don’t like our trade policy. Actually it’s normal how about now for a run or two to run out to see your go away inland.

[Logan11]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to be a closer to the coast solution it seems, The trough is a couple tics to the west of 06z run.

Will I need to widen my driveway a bit to make room for more piles?   I was thinking this one would end up a bit east.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a nice western CT western MA mid level look.

LOL--right after I solidified the ME plan.

[NorEastermass128]

Guessing the coast is fried. May this winter end. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

LOL--right after I solidified the ME plan.

You get it good there too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I will bet hard on that mid level look and track everytime and easily result in positive equity.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I see many have become emotionally invested on both sides.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Guessing the coast is fried. May this winter end. 

Not necessarily unless GFS is right.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I see many have become emotionally invested on both sides.

Yeah, I think last storm caused some mental illness.

[JBinStoughton]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Guessing the coast is fried. May this winter end. 

Maybe we’ll cash in this tropical season  

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Logan11 said:

Will I need to widen my driveway a bit to make room for more piles?   I was thinking this one would end up a bit east.

Dam close that run for your area.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

LOL--right after I solidified the ME plan.

Close to 12-18" verbatim this run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, I think last storm caused some mental illness.

If this one goes awry, I'm closing the blog and calling it a season.