Atomixwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Who's hosting the kegger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Here's Pivotal's representation of the 3K using Kuchera. As best I can tell most of Cumberland county gets 12-15" except the southwest mountainous region which gets 20". I manually searched around the county with my cursor and it suddenly blew up from 14" to 21" around South Mountain region. Lol that 17.1 at KUNV would nearly double their snowfall total to date for the winter. I think they're running at like 22.3" or something last time I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 @MAG5035 I-80 is the plan and then get as close as I can to exit 119 on I-81 for delivery. It looks like I'm going to have a rough ending to a pretty rough trip. I had to sit in California for 5 days waiting on a load. Had I gotten out sooner, I'd have delivered this morning and been safely home for the upcoming festivities. As it looks now, I may not even get home after my delivery as I have to take the truck to Scranton and park it before going home. That's why I was so adament about not getting this one. What should have been a 12 day trip may turn into 16 or 17 till all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The columns on the GFS and Euro are great for LSV.NAM, not ideal but if CCB sets up, that should do the job to cool the column.Very dynamic system. Thunder sleet and Thundersnow not out of question.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 For the LSV, it will come down to CCB..Haha. What’s the forecast then: “a few inches of snow unless we get in the CCB; then 8”+. We won’t know till it happens”. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 CBS Evening Fake News meteorologist Herr Helmut has Cumberland/Dauphin/Northern Dork/Adams/Lanc in 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 24 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: CBS Evening Fake News meteorologist Herr Helmut has Cumberland/Dauphin/Northern Dork/Adams/Lanc in 8-12. Well that’s one way to get viewers I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 20 minutes ago, canderson said: Well that’s one way to get viewers I guess. Totally. I immediately turned it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Holy 18z NAM, I'd say happy hour has started off with a bang, (this isn't done) You know when a red taggr is posting weenie snow maps the atmosphere is getting right for snow!! Atta boy. I’m proud of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Lol that 17.1 at KUNV would nearly double their snowfall total to date for the winter. I think they're running at like 22.3" or something last time I saw. So sad... just want enough for a good ski day at blue knob! Maybe this can tick north at the last minute but expecting the usual 1-2" fringe. Hope yall further south cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That red tagger has seen about three inches of snow in the past four winters. He desperate lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: That red tagger has seen about three inches of snow in the past four winters. He desperate lol MAG is the best poster in this subforum! We'll take our 1-2" and enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Superstorm said: The columns on the GFS and Euro are great for LSV. NAM, not ideal but if CCB sets up, that should do the job to cool the column. Very dynamic system. Thunder sleet and Thundersnow not out of question. . Thunder sleet. I’ll try anything once. Especially if ccbs setup shortly after. I’m easy like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Horst call: 2"-5". Hey...that was my call earlier today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I understand why CTP & the local TV forecasts are going conservative because of the huge bust 2 weeks ago. However, if this storm comes together as modeled by the current global & short term models, then a lot of the general public are going to be really caught off guard if we approach the higher end of the modeled potential. I also understand factoring in sun angle & time of year, etc. but just last year on March 14th, MDT had 17 inches of snow. I don’t think the sun angle will be all that different just 1 week later. Here is to a great 0z model run for all of CTP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This isn’t a bad look from LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Doesn’t exactly align with CTP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, canderson said: Doesn’t exactly align with CTP: It honestly a mystery to me. I think they troll us here and post paltry snow maps to piss me/us off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I understand why CTP & the local TV forecasts are going conservative because of the huge bust 2 weeks ago. However, if this storm comes together as modeled by the current global & short term models, then a lot of the general public are going to be really caught off guard if we approach the higher end of the modeled potential. I also understand factoring in sun angle & time of year, etc. but just last year on March 14th, MDT had 17 inches of snow. I don’t think the sun angle will be all that different just 1 week later. Here is to a great 0z model run for all of CTP! Totally agree. They are going conservative and most of that likely due to bust. Cheer let’s go CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Wow - unless CTP is in the process of updating, not sure I’ve ever seen bordering offices use almost no coordination in forecasts (could very well have something to do with the recent storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 CTP's map seems good to me honestly. It is higher than Horst... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: CTP's map seems good to me honestly. It is higher than Horst... Every model has 1 to 1.25 QPF for All of the LSV. Does Horst not remember the storm last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: CTP's map seems good to me honestly. It is higher than Horst... Agreed. I think anyone expecting more than 6” on a snowboard is risky. Maybe a slushy 2” or so on roads Wednesday morning. Unless you get into a deathband that is not forecastable. Meanwhile local tv Mets are straight up posting GFS snowmaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 @Blizzard of 93 Huh? Horst was the one that called for 10" down here last year. All models were putting out 20" or more. We got 10"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Every model has 1 to 1.25 QPF for All of the LSV. Does Horst not remember the storm last year? Mets can’t win. Someone posted above that there was a call for 8-12” on CBS and they were accused of overhyping and fake news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, canderson said: Agreed. I think anyone expecting more than 6” on a snowboard is risky. Maybe a slushy 2” or so on roads Wednesday morning. Unless you get into a deathband that is not forecastable. Meanwhile local tv Mets are straight up posting GFS snowmaps. Elevation is going to be biggest factor imo. With right banding and elevation, someone will hit double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Elevation is going to be biggest factor imo. With right banding and elevation, someone will hit double digits. Exactly. And also we will lose a lot to mixing. Total QPF of 1.25" down here will not translate to double digit snow totals. In the lowlands and urban areas of Lancaster county 2"-5" is absolutely the right call for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I think 2-5 is a good call for first event. If second event turns out as good or better than some of the models show then we can double that. Snow depth is a total different story. I’m still nervous about round two. Let’s hope it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Elevation is going to be biggest factor imo. With right banding and elevation, someone will hit double digits. Agreed. @MAG5035 is likely dead-on with the Lauren’s doing well. Meanwhile here in the urban valley, have to be cautious and realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 28 minutes ago, pasnownut said: It honestly a mystery to me. I think they troll us here and post paltry snow maps to piss me/us off. If you look at their high end maps (and their low end maps for that matter), you can see the tremendous spread that remains in the guidance to generate those products. On one end of the spectrum everyone sees warning snow and the southern half of the CWA sees 12+ and on the other end 75% of the CWA sees 0". Thus, I think their most likely map that's out is reasonable. They did note in their disco that they hoped the addition of the global model members into their suite tonight to generate the maps (however they do that) would knock down the spread. The met that did that short term update also mentioned numbers from the NAM package were in the "ridiculoso" range in Somerset County, haha. I think big numbers are doable but the big issue will be precip rates. Early looks at the HRRR and RAP are showing good push into PA with the initial wave. The longer range RAP, which somehow went to 50 hours on the 21z run, shows a lull Tuesday eve before precip shield rengenerates and hangs over PA. Not taking that completely to heart... but lull's are risky, I think if the deform stays in one piece and the snow never stops will we have a chance at the big totals. The duration also brings verification of higher criteria into consideration as well (needing to use 24hr instead of 12 hour criteria). 0z should finally start narrowing ranges down. They better, this thing's about 12 hours from starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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