KPITSnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, canderson said: NAM and HRRR appear to cut precip by like 70%. Gee where have I seen that recently? Yep. Was saying that in our thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 RAP not great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Flipping over to snow in northern MD. Cold air is working in down there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I think one thing that's happened is the models took away a lot of today's "snow" which to be honest was never something i feel we should have counted on. I think the models are now adjusting to tonight and tomorrow's "main" coastal. The crazy totals we were seeing yesterday...a lot of that was from today's storm, and there was a vocal minority (Horst) who was saying all along that that was going to be a miss/nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Good point may....these deals are hard to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Good point may....these deals are hard to predict. Well I mean...we were never going to get those 16", 18" amounts that the NAM was spitting out yesterday from just round #2. That was including a sizable amount from round #1 which was never really our deal. Plus throw in the lost QPF to sleet (which some people ignore, assume it's snow) and perhaps the totals now are much more realistic. I still like 4"-7" for our area. Almost all of that coming after darkness tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I actually think our chances are better for more snow than before. I’d rather it be slightly colder and miss out on the initial band that was supposed to be crap for us anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Think you are good for 4 to 8.....Hbg could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I actually think our chances are better for more snow than before. I’d rather it be slightly colder and miss out on the initial band that was supposed to be crap for us anyway. . YES!!! Exactly! As long as there's an understanding that we were never going to get those outrageous totals i think we'll be fine later on. Too many people were banking on snow today when it was never really our deal to begin with. And that's why i went up with my numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 32/10. Radar looks great to the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I actually think our chances are better for more snow than before. I’d rather it be slightly colder and miss out on the initial band that was supposed to be crap for us anyway. . Agreed. I love seeing the reports just south of here of heavy snow already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: 32/10. Radar looks great to the southwest You are looking really good...will probably score some today AND tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Lol, I never realized how many if our posters are all in LSV or south central....I'm pretty much only north dude outside of 2001 and fellow Williamsport guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Lol, I never realized how many if our posters are all in LSV or south central....I'm pretty much only north dude outside of 2001 and fellow Williamsport guy. Very true. Lots from Cumberland Dauphin York and Lancaster County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol, I never realized how many if our posters are all in LSV or south central....I'm pretty much only north dude outside of 2001 and fellow Williamsport guy. There are some more up your way that don't post a whole lot. Then again...for the past decade as often as you guys have been missed by storms you haven't had a whole lot to post about, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: YES!!! Exactly! As long as there's an understanding that we were never going to get those outrageous totals i think we'll be fine later on. Too many people were banking on snow today when it was never really our deal to begin with. And that's why i went up with my numbers. My wife looked out our bathroom window this morning and said "Not snowing yet"! and i said its not suppose to be snowing. "Well so & So said it was" she replied. I've told her for years to stop listening to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 either i looked at my thermometer wrong at work this morning or we dropped 5 degrees in the last 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, sauss06 said: My wife looked out our bathroom window this morning and said "Not snowing yet"! and i said its not suppose to be snowing. "Well so & So said it was" she replied. I've told her for years to stop listening to them. Yeah, people get confused as it is with social media hysteria these days, but this particular event has confused even more of us because of the 2 separate waves. A few models such as the NAM were insisting that we'd get big snows from both...and that isn't happening. We are relying (hoping) for the coastal to deliver the goods tonight. If the coastal forms offshore....we're toast. We should have a really good handle by mid evening what our yards will look like by sunrise tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 My wife looked out our bathroom window this morning and said "Not snowing yet"! and i said its not suppose to be snowing. "Well so & So said it was" she replied. I've told her for years to stop listening to them. Lol. Have had the same conversation with the “general public” for years.Facebook, radio feed that has not been updated, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: There are some more up your way that don't post a whole lot. Then again...for the past decade as often as you guys have been missed by storms you haven't had a whole lot to post about, either. Could be....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: either i looked at my thermometer wrong at work this morning or we dropped 5 degrees in the last 2 hours Not sure. Watching MU's weather page, their temp has been holding steady at 31... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Not sure. Watching MU's weather page, their temp has been holding steady at 31... Maybe my eyes weren't all the way open. i thought it was 36 when i looked at 615 this morning. and 10 minutes ago i checked it and it said 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The HRRR looks good . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 So & So suck ass. I went to So & So after Canderson's wife broke my headboard and those ***holes can't build for ****. Your wife is trusting those clowns with the weather? Leave her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Wave one snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Still some big hits showing up, not a great model but fun to look at. One can only hope. Also lots of mixing turning to snow down south already. Hopefully we can stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Yeah, people get confused as it is with social media hysteria these days, but this particular event has confused even more of us because of the 2 separate waves. A few models such as the NAM were insisting that we'd get big snows from both...and that isn't happening. We are relying (hoping) for the coastal to deliver the goods tonight. If the coastal forms offshore....we're toast. We should have a really good handle by mid evening what our yards will look like by sunrise tomorrow. ^^^ Exactly. Thats why posting maps on social media is a bad idea. Just looking at latest HRRR and seeing the hourly changes is just funny. Much better look this hour than last....wth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, paweather5 said: Still some big hits showing up, not a great model but fun to look at. One can only hope. Also lots of mixing turning to snow down south already. Hopefully we can stay all snow. saw that but wasnt gonna be the weenie to post it..... thx buddy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: Is this getting a quicker start? I was thinking we wouldn't have good snow until later tonight into Wednesday We should see a wintry mix throughout the day today but I'm not expecting much to accumulate with light rates much of the day and the significant dry air (KMDT currently reporting 33/8!) eating away at much of what does fall today. The 6z NAM has the dry air further south than previous runs, even keeps the 850mb jet streak south of PA. Yes it is good to have a little bit of dry air to help cool temps when the column becomes saturated but too dry like we have to the north can really cause issues with this event if the system ends up flatter and south, hence precip shield staying much further south than what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, djr5001 said: We should see a wintry mix throughout the day today but I'm not expecting much to accumulate with light rates much of the day and the significant dry air (KMDT currently reporting 33/8!) eating away at much of what does fall today. The 6z NAM has the dry air further south than previous runs, even keeps the 850mb jet streak south of PA. Yes it is good to have a little bit of dry air to help cool temps when the column becomes saturated but too dry like we have to the north can really cause issues with this event if the system ends up flatter and south, hence precip shield staying much further south than what we want to see. I've been watching the radar for the past 3 hours. The northern extent of the shield continues to get beaten back at the M/D line. I agree with everything you said...and why models showing these big snow for today are likely bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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